Tropical Storm Eta floods South Florida, could make second landfall late week

Now, Eta is drifting over the Gulf of Mexico, poised to make a second landfall in northwest Florida late this week or weekend.

Hurricane Eta exploded before hitting Nicaragua, but we may never know how strong it was

Eta first made landfall in Nicaragua last Tuesday as a 145-mph Category 4 monster. It brought widespread catastrophic flooding to Central America, with rainfall amounts estimated near 40 inches in spots. More than 150 were left dead or missing in Guatemala following a barrage of mudslides, the waterlogged storm then emerging once again over the Caribbean.

Since then, it’s brought dangerous flooding to the United States, with double-digit totals reported in South Florida and the potential for yet another high-impact landfall late week. The National Hurricane Center states that “Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm,” and that “impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge” can be expected.

Eta brings serious flooding to South Florida

The workweek began with flash-flood warnings in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, where persistent bands of torrential tropical downpours were continuing to soak an area already dealing with significant flooding. Doppler radar estimates a swath of more than a foot fell since late Saturday, with reports of up to 16.1 inches in Miramar, northwest of Miami, as of 9 a.m. Monday; up to five inches had fallen in just four hours’ time.

Roadways became rivers in Fort Lauderdale, with reports of water entering homes and parking garages inundated. There were 15.82 inches reported near Interstate 75 in extreme southern Broward County near Miramar, with 14.75 inches falling in Pembroke Pines southwest of Fort Lauderdale through early Monday.

Doppler radar revealed the heaviest bands of rain pivoting away from southeast Florida as Eta’s circulation meandered west on Monday morning, but intermittent tropical downpours and squalls are likely through at least Tuesday in the Miami to Palm Beach corridor. Another two to four inches of rain can’t be ruled out in some spots, with storm total rainfall closing in on a foot and a half when all is said and done.

Strong winds and surge continue to buffet South Florida

Though Eta’s circulation is pulling west with diminishing winds and rain in South Florida, strong gusty winds were ongoing in the Sunshine State. Gusts over 30 mph continued Monday morning in Miami, with gusts topping 45 mph reported at the airport overnight. Fort Lauderdale was gusting to near 40 mph around 9 a.m. Monday, with tropical-storm-force winds in the heavier rain bands.

Sustained winds of 52 mph gusting to 63 mph were observed Sunday night in the Florida Keys, while a weather station in Key West measured a gust of 53 mph.

Though the worst conditions were subsiding, water levels were still running 0.5 to 1.3 feet above normal tide level in the Florida Keys, courtesy of a storm surge associated with Eta. At peak, water levels in Vaca Key were 1.6 feet high, with a surge of 2.1 feet in Key Biscayne. The Everglades also reported a surge of 1.9 feet.

Water levels will likely relax across the area by late Monday evening.

Eta to linger over gulf with second landfall possible

At 10 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Eta had moved west of South Florida, and was located about 30 miles west-southwest of Dry Tortugas, or around 80 miles west-southwest of Key West. Maximum winds remained at 60 mph, with a movement to the southwest at 14 mph. Eta is forecast to stall on Tuesday, and will begin slowly crawling north on Wednesday.

Conditions over the eastern Gulf of Mexico support sustenance of Eta at current strength as it parallels the Gulf Coast of Florida, with warm sea surface temperatures and relaxed upper-level winds. Ordinarily, this would be a recipe for strengthening, but insurgences of dry air are expected to inhibit any more significant intensification of Eta.

Concern is growing though that Eta may stubbornly lash Florida once again, this time between Tampa Bay and the Big Bend late in the week into the weekend. By then, the National Hurricane Center forecasts Eta to be a lower-end tropical storm, but direct impacts from storm surge, wind and flooding rains remain possible.