Coronavirus expected to kill more than 2,000 Massachusetts residents, peaking in mid-April

Coronavirus is expected to claim the lives of more than 2,000 Massachusetts residents by summer, according to a new analysis, but it could have been worse.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent population health research center at the University of Washington, released nationwide and state-by-state projections of hospital resource use and residents infected.

The number of deaths per day is expected to peak in Massachusetts to just under 100 deaths daily in the next two-and-a-half weeks. A total of 2,357 deaths are projected for Massachusetts by August.

Globally, the number of daily deaths from the virus has been increasing exponentially every day. On March 1, fewer than 75 people a day were dying around the world from the virus. By March 19, it had surpassed 1,000 a day. Four days later, on March 24, it had surpassed 2,000 a day. Three days later, on March 27, it surpassed 3,000 a day. By March 31 daily deaths surpassed 4,000 a day.

Although most people who are infected with the virus have mild symptoms, may not even require hospitalization, and recover, the overall toll on life remains sobering.

Gov. Charlie Baker shared projections from state health officials on Thursday, said that up to 172,000 Massachusetts residents could potentially be infected.

He urged people to stay home, wash their hands and take the advice on “social distancing” seriously to help prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

“It is a powerful weapon and has been proven in most cases to be the most powerful weapon,” Baker said on Thursday. “If everyone plays their part, we can flatten the curve and reduce the strain on our health care systems and our communities.”

There have been 8,966 people who tested positive for the coronavirus, and at least 154 people have died, according to figures released by the state Department of Public Health on Wednesday.

COVID-19, the novel coronavirus causing the pandemic, is expected to peak nationwide in mid-April. Just under 94,000 fatalities are expected across the United States by August.

New York is expected to be the hardest hit state, with 16,000 deaths projected. Single-day death tolls rising to more than 2,500 are expected in the next two-and-a-half weeks.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Wednesday the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has reached more than 83,000 in New York - including more than 8,000 overnight. Of the confirmed 83,712 cases, 47,439 are in New York City’s five boroughs.

Statewide death totals from the virus in New York rose to 1,941, up 391 from Tuesday.

“That number will continue to go up,” Cuomo said. “We are still looking for a curve; we are still looking to see where we hit the plateau."

He emphasized that it’s “Not just New York,” adding, “If you believe these numbers — 16,000 deaths in New York — that means you’re going to get tens of thousands of deaths outside of New York.

“So, to the extent people watch their nightly news in Kansas and say, well, this is a New York problem, that’s not what these numbers say. It says it’s a New York problem today. Tomorrow, it’s a Kansas problem and a Texas problem and a New Mexico problem," Cuomo said.

The model accounts for steps taken to slow the curve and assumes continued social distancing until the end of May.

Baker declared a state of emergency in Massachusetts in early March, encouraging companies to allow their employees to work from home, encouraging residents to limit travel and gathering in large groups and lifting restrictions on public schools, allowing schools and students to be free from attendance requirements.

As schools across the commonwealth announced temporary closures, Baker announced all public schools will be suspended until mid-April, then extended the measure until at least May 4, with districts turning to remote learning for about a million students in Massachusetts. The governor ordered all restaurants and bars shut down on-site food and drink service. He ordered limits on all public gatherings, including sporting activities, concerts and faith gatherings.

“I realize these measures are unprecedented,” Baker said, “but we’re asking our residents to take a deep breath and understand the rationale behind this guidance.”

People were also asked to keep a 6-foot distance between themselves and others.

Baker on Monday announced that he is shutting down all non-essential operations to help curtail the spread of the virus. Gatherings are now limited to 10 people.

The majority of Americans - about 80% - are under lockdown orders, with governors closing schools, banning social gatherings and ordering residents to stay home. But a handful of states have enacted only partial stay-at-home orders.

The United States has the highest number of cases, over 200,000 cases as of Thursday, and over 5,000 deaths.

Worldwide, the total number of confirmed cases rose above a million on Thursday, with over 50,000 confirmed deaths.

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