Newly released pandemic modeling offers a murky outlook in Vermont's fight to stop COVID-19 transmission. At Tuesday's news conference, state health officials said new cases shot up 26% during the past week. Vermont is now the only New England state to report rising cases and comes amid an ongoing wave of new infections that rivals some of the highest daily counts since the pandemic began. Financial Regulation Commissioner Mike Pieciak, Vermont's COVID-19 modeling chief, presented a chart offering a variety of vastly different outlooks for the state in the next week. "We're a little uncertain of the direction we're heading in, unfortunately," Pieciak said.He added that cases have been "very high" in the state's Northeast Kingdom when compared on a per capita basis across the state. Caledonia, Essex and Orleans counties — which comprise the region — have reported a combined 538 cases during the past two weeks. Chittenden County, which has more than double the population of the entire Northeast Kingdom, reported 505 new COVID-19 cases during the same period. Health Commissioner Dr. Mark Levine said of all new infections reported in the last week, 70% to 75% were among people who are not fully vaccinated against COVID-19. That data includes schools and child care centers with children, who make up a large portion of recent case increases and are not yet eligible to begin the inoculation process.State leaders do not believe a surge in fall tourism is contributing significantly to Vermont's higher case count. Gov. Phil Scott said less than 10% of total new cases reported were among out-of-state residents. Infections are being driven in large part, by state estimates, through high community transmission. No major outbreaks have been identified as a hotbed for COVID-19 spread in recent weeks."The cases seem to be focused on gatherings — small, mid-size gatherings," Scott said Tuesday. "Whether it be wedding receptions, gatherings at homes and parties and so forth, not larger scale."While Scott expressed concern with certain outdoor gatherings, his main message was to those opting to attend indoor gatherings or businesses without a facial covering. "Don't put yourself in those positions," he said. "Wear a mask when you're around people you don't know. Especially when you're inside."All Vermont counties are listed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as having "high" or "substantial" transmission of COVID-19. The designations do not bring any formal guidelines or restrictions into effect for residents, though federal health officials recommend any counties in those categories transmission implement indoor mask mandates.The transmission level is defined by the agency as any place with more than 100 cases per 100,000 people in the past week. Scott has repeatedly rejected calls from state legislators to implement additional public health guidance at a state level, concerned about the potential reenactment of a state of emergency that might be necessary to do so. The governor is instead hopeful transmission will begin to ebb in three or four weeks, citing decreases seen over a similar time period in southern states. "We're disappointed, we wish we had all the answers, but we have to keep doing what we think is right," Scott said.