Why Jackson Michie will win 'Big Brother' ... and why he won't

It's safe to say Jackson Michie has been a polarizing figure on this summer's season "Big Brother."

The former University of Tennessee student is now in the final three with Holly Allen and Nicole Anthony and has a shot of winning the grand prize of $500,000 during the CBS reality show's finale on Wednesday night.

Jackson has made it this far on the show due to an excellent physical and strategic game, but his personality and some of his actions on the show have rubbed viewers and some of his fellow houseguests the wrong way throughout the season. 

Here's why Jackson will win "Big Brother" ... and why he won't.

Jackson has dominated in competitions

Since the start of the season, Jackson has showcased that he can win "Big Brother" competitions, whether physical or mental. 

Jackson's won three Head of Household competitions, which resulted in the evictions of Analyse Talavera, Jessica Milagros and Tommy Bracco respectively. 

He's also racked up four Power of Veto wins. One allowed him to pull himself off the block during Cliff Hogg's Head of Household reign.

Jackson also claimed the crucial final four Veto, where the winner decides who makes it to the final three with one vote. He used it to send Cliff out the door on Thursday.

Another competition win allowed Jackson to get the best outcome of a situation. "Big Brother" introduced its America's Field Trip twist, and it allowed viewers to pick three houseguests to take part in a competition. 

One would win immunity for the week; one would receive a punishment, and another one would end up as a nominee for eviction. Jackson won and received safety.

Competition wins are certainly not the only way to measure success on "Big Brother," but they helped keep Jackson safe, especially after he and Holly found themselves on the outs after an alliance break up. 

He survived an alliance break up

Near the start of the show, Jackson joined an alliance called Gr8tful with Holly, Christie Murphy, Tommy, Analyse, Jack Matthews, Nick Maccarone and Isabella Wang. Eventually, the group became the Six Shooters (Gr8tful minus Nick and Isabella). 

The Six Shooters controlled the game for a number of weeks, but a betrayal of trust and tensions between Jackson and Christie let to its demise.

After the dust settled, Jackson and Holly were on the outs with the rest of the group, but they managed to stick around longer than anyone else in the alliance.

Jackson and Holly secured more Head of Household wins, and those kept them safe, along with forming a final four alliance with Cliff and Nicole.

He's played a (mostly) loyal game

Over the course of the game, Jackson has remained mostly loyal to his allies. 

He didn't stray from the Six Shooters plans while they were in power and didn't target his alliance members until the group fell apart. 

Also, when Jessica placed Jackson placed on the block with Jack after the Six Shooters' break up, Jackson refused to campaign against Jack.

Jackson also stayed loyal to his final four with Holly, Cliff and Nicole until they were the only ones left in the "Big Brother" house. 

Then, Jackson's loyalty only extended to Holly, who he's in a "showmance" (romantic relationship) with, as he repeatedly lied to Cliff about taking him to the final three instead of Holly.

Jackson can manipulate situations

Jackson has also gained power in the game by manipulating situations to his advantage.

For example, when the game was down to the final five players, he discovered that his alliance mates Cliff and Nicole were planning to evict Holly instead of the would-be No. 5 player, Tommy. So Jackson eavesdropped on a conversation among Cliff, Nicole and Tommy and made up a lie using information he overheard about their deal.

Jackson then accosted a rattled Tommy in front of Cliff and Nicole, accusing Tommy of conspiring behind the backs of Cliff and Nicole (though Tommy wasn't). Ultimately Cliff and Nicole reluctantly wound up voting out Tommy instead of Holly after Jackson and Holly made a few deals with them - deals that Jackson said he wouldn't honor because of Cliff and Nicole's near-betrayal. 

Also, during the final four Head of Household competition, Jackson manipulated Holly.

He encouraged her to keep a promise she made to Cliff and Nicole and throw the competition, which benefited Jackson because with the loss, Holly wouldn't have safety and Cliff and Nicole would have the option of evicting Holly instead of Jackson if Cliff and Nicole were able to seize power. (Ultimately it was Jackson who won voting power with the veto win, so it didn't matter that Holly threw the competition.)

Why Jackson won't win 'Big Brother'

The show's fans have been split on Jackson. The 24-year-old's confident demeanor and aggressive play have placed him squarely in the "jock" archetype, but he also brings an additional edge that viewers find off-putting. He has a gruff voice, shows signs of feeling entitled, sometimes acts immature, and he can be sullen and uncommunicative when he's unhappy.

What's worse, "Big Brother" watchers have been turned off by his dismissive behavior to his showmance partner, Holly. When they've argued, he has made her cry, shut her down, talked over her and refused to talk further. (To be fair, fans have pointed out that Holly, who is prone to bitter complaining and button-pushing, hasn't been entirely innocent in these arguments.)

Also, Jackson's best friend in the house, Jack, engaged in bullying behavior early in the season, and the two men (particularly Jack) were lambasted by viewers for toxic and sometimes bigoted comments about other players.

Although fans don't have a say in who wins, the other contestants do: The "Big Brother" winner is decided when the last nine players evicted from the house vote on the final two who remain. That will most likely be Jackson vs. Holly or Nicole vs. Holly because it's improbable that Jackson would take Nicole to the final two, or vice versa, so there wouldn't be a Jackson vs. Nicole showdown in the finale.

Jackson has unquestionably been the strongest player all season, but the jury members can choose any criteria they want to pick a winner. Some of the players might be bitter about Jackson's steamrolling play, some might feel a stronger bond with Holly, and others may simply find his personality too abrasive to represent them as their winner.

Nicole takes him out

Unlike Jackson, the nerdy underdog Nicole, who has proven to be both kind and a fierce competitor, is wildly popular with viewers and an odds-on probable winner of the "America's Favorite Houseguest" vote at the finale.

Nicole is an astute player and has seen Jackson as the hardest to beat, so if she were to win the show's final competition, she would likely knock Jackson out of the game and take Holly to the final two.

If by some chance Jackson takes Nicole to the final two or vice versa, Nicole still has a chance to win. She's well spoken enough to make her case for votes and well liked by enough players to possibly get the majority of votes from the jury (provided the jury is willing to overlook Jackson's physical dominance).

Holly takes him out

It would seem unthinkable for Jackson's showmance partner, Holly, to knock him out of the game and take Nicole to the end, but it could happen.

Even though she's tried to present herself as an equal partner to Jackson in their strategy moves, she knows there's a perception among other players that he deserves most of the credit for the duo's game success. If she really wants to win, what would be a bigger move than taking him down? She might think such a play would give her enough game credibility to win over the jury and beat Nicole.

Here's the problem: Holly doesn't particularly like Nicole. Would she really risk diverting the $500,000 prize money from her beau to someone who has been irritating her? Don't count on it. If she and Jackson are in the final two, one them is guaranteed to win, and if they plan to stick together after the show ends, they will both benefit.