Long before congressman Alcee Hastings died Tuesday, candidates who wanted to succeed him were plotting strategy, lining up potential supporters, assessing the opposition, and figuring out how to pay for it all.
Some of the politicking was open. Broward County Commissioner Barbara Sharief officially declared her candidacy more than four months ago. She’s been raising money, holding Zoom video conferences with supporters, and campaigning door to door.
Others operated less publicly before the death of Hastings, who had been diagnosed in late 2018 with Stage 4 pancreatic cancer. Though not formally declared, Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness and state Sen. Perry Thurston have unofficially been campaigning for the job.
The inside game is about to become much more public, and crowded. At least 14 candidates are already in or deciding whether they want to take a shot in the special election in Florida’s 20th Congressional District, which encompasses most of the African American and Caribbean American neighborhoods in Broward and Palm Beach counties.
“We are going to see a large number of candidates. There’s a lot of pent-up ambition since the congressman served the community for so long,” said Sean Phillippi, a Broward-based Democratic campaign consultant and data scientist.
And while most focus is on Hastings’ seat, the congressional vacancy is sure to reverberate. “Think about the political tsunami below it,” said Chris Smith of Fort Lauderdale, a former Democratic Party leader in the Florida House and the Florida Senate.
Under the state’s resign-to-run law, current elected officials must submit irrevocable resignations to qualify as candidates for the congressional seat. That will create openings in a plethora of other offices, Smith said. “Every elected official’s name that you know is getting ready to move,” he said.
No date has been set for the election to replace Hastings. The timing is entirely up to Gov. Ron DeSantis.
For now, there’s some reticence among some of the potential hopefuls who don’t want to be seen as insensitive for publicly announcing their candidacies too soon after the congressman’s death.
Some said last week they didn’t want to comment until Hastings’ funeral, but that demarcation doesn’t exist because he wanted to be cremated and did not want a service. His family is honoring his wishes.
“Right now, we should be spending our time honoring Congressman Hastings the way he should be honored right now,” said state Sen. Shevrin Jones. “I know there are a lot of people prepared and ready to jump and start campaigning. But I would ask them to consider understanding the foundation that Congressman Hastings has laid.”
Pressed about his own intentions, Jones said: “All options for me are on the table. I have not ruled it out. But I will say that I am happy here in the Senate.” He said “quite a few” people have reached out to him about running
Out of public view, maneuvering started as soon as news of Hastings death spread Tuesday morning. Potential candidates have been making calls to political consultants in South Florida and Washington, operatives in Washington have been making calls to South Florida, and major political donors have been assessing the field.
“As soon as the word got out, my phone and text messages started blowing up,” Smith said.
Many candidates
The district is designed to increase the likelihood of a Black member of Congress. Under mid-1980s revisions to the federal Voting Rights Act, the boundaries are drawn with a goal of helping to bring a voice that wouldn’t be otherwise heard to the halls of Congress. That helped Hastings win his first election in 1992 when he became the first Black man Florida sent to Washington since 1877, when the post-Civil War era of Reconstruction ended.
Many currently elected officials who are Black have either acknowledged they are running, taken clear and obvious steps toward running, or have supporters who have floated their names as potential candidates.
The consensus from a majority of eight political insiders interviewed in the days after Hastings’ death is that Holness, Sharief and Thurston are the leading candidates — for now.
“Until the field is set it’s just absolutely impossible to make coherent predictions,” said Broward Mayor Steve Geller. “There is a plethora of strong candidates, and I don’t believe there is any one candidate that would be a favorite.”
Broward Black elected officials whose names have been floated include Jones, state Rep. Bobby DuBose, Miramar Mayor Wayne Messam and School Board member Rosalind Osgood.
Palm Beach County Black elected officials whose names have been floated include County Commissioner Mack Bernard, state Rep. Omari Hardy and state Sen. Bobby Powell. Former Palm Beach County Commissioner Priscilla Taylor is also on the list.
And those are just the current and former elected officials. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who challenged Hastings in the 2020 primary and received 31% percent of the vote, filed paperwork in January stating her intention to seek the office. Marlon A. Onias, a former police officer who has a Fort Lauderdale law office, has also declared himself a candidate as has Matt Boswell, also of Fort Lauderdale.
One name, floated by two political insiders, would completely shake up the race: The late congressman’s son, Alcee “Jody” Hastings II. He’s been at his father’s side at some events over the years but hasn’t been politically active.
Political calculations
Many factors go into the calculations by candidates and strategists.
Crowded field: Lots of candidates means someone could win the Democratic primary with a relatively small share of the vote. The district is so heavily Democratic that the primary winner is virtually guaranteed to win the general election and go to Congress.
As more candidates enter the race, the lower the share of the vote needed to win. “That starts a self-perpetuating process, attracting even more candidates,” Phillippi said, because more see a chance at receiving enough for to win.
Strengths: Sharief is a woman, which gives her an edge. Phillippi said gender plays a role. Black female voters turn out at much higher rates than Black men, he said, and the gender gap is significantly higher than in the white community.
Also, Sharief is a business owner and has more ability than the other candidates to spend her own money on a campaign. A federal campaign finance filing shows she’s already lent $100,000 to her campaign.
Each candidate has different niches: Sharief is Muslim, Jones Florida’s first out LGBT state senator, and Hardy has a large progressive following on social media.
Holness is Caribbean American, which gives him an edge with a swath of the electorate in Central Broward. He also built an extensive political machine that helped other elected officials win in 2020. Thurston is African American, which gives him an edge in the Black community in Fort Lauderdale. He’s had experience in a tough race, losing the 2014 primary campaign for Florida attorney general.
But it gets much more complicated. Sharief is from Miramar, which has a large Caribbean American population. And Holness has represented Fort Lauderdale for 10 years on the commission, which could blunt Thurston’s reach in the city.
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Geography: About 70 percent of the district’s voters live in Broward County and 30% in Palm Beach County. If people vote based on hometown advantage, a field with many Broward candidates and one Palm Beach County candidate could be an advantage for the person in the northern part of the district.
Another geographic question involves Kings Point in Tamarac, which is in the 20th District. The large condominium community, home to many older white voters, makes Smith wonder if one white candidate could receive enough votes in a primary with multiple Black candidates to win. Phillippi thinks that scenario is unlikely, since plenty of white voters in the district would vote for one of the Black candidates.
What office: Potential candidates need to figure out what’s the best bet. Instead of running for Congress, a someone could run for a job that a current officeholder must relinquish.
DuBose, for example, could run for Congress or Thurston’s Senate seat. Osgood could run for Fort Lauderdale commission when current Commissioner Robert McKinzie runs for Holness’ seat. Or she could run for Holness’ seat herself.
One less candidate
Smith’s first words when he answered a reporter’s phone call two days after Hastings’ death were a declaration that he wasn’t running.
A decade ago, Smith said he “would have jumped” at the chance. Now, he said, he’s focused on his businesses and law practice. He’ll support his longtime friend Thurston. “My time has passed.”
Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com or on Twitter @browardpolitics
