PORTSMOUTH, Va. (WAVY) — Virginia reported 6,172 new coronavirus cases on Monday, a disappointing development after about a week of lower than average cases. Those recent days may have made it seem like Virginia’s cases were plateauing or going down overall .

Monday’s increase could be due to some lag in reporting, but it appears Virginia will continue to see cases go up until about mid-February, according to the health department’s model through the University of Virginia. New coronavirus variants could change that projection however, with another version of the UVA model accounting for the variants showing cases increasing through April.

Statewide numbers

  • New cases: (+6,172478,619 total), back up after reporting down last week (4,581 per day on average)
  • Case incidence rate: 53.8 per 100K people, trending up overall but down recently
  • New deaths (+3, 6,081 total), trending up overall (49 per day on average)
  • Current hospitalizations (+42, 2,888 total), back down slightly but still near peak
  • Testing (12.6% 7-day average of positive tests), back down recently, averaging around 31K tests per day
  • Doses administered (522,853, 21,823 on average, 64,381 fully vaccinated
  • Doses distributed (1,105,700), only about 110,00 per week from federal government

Deaths are continuing to climb overall (49 per day), though reporting was low on Monday with 3 deaths. Hospitalizations have also gone down slightly recently, but remain high.

Meanwhile vaccine supply from the federal government to Virginia is not expected to increase much from the current 110,000 per week allotment until March. Hampton Roads overall has started 1b vaccinations, but again the supply is very limited. Portsmouth was the only health district in the commonwealth not in 1b as of Monday, but was expected to start on Tuesday.

It’s clear many more people are expected to get infected with the coronavirus in the coming months before vaccinations really start to made a major impact.

Nationwide, cases and hospitalizations have been down (mirroring Virginia’s metrics in ways), but the U.S. is still reporting 3,000-plus deaths per day.

Local cases

Positivity rates and overall virus levels have dropped almost across the board in the region, but still remain high.

  • Accomack: 2,272 cases, 155 hospitalized, 31 deaths (+23 cases)
  • Chesapeake: 14590 cases, 701 hospitalized, 120 deaths (+204 cases, +2 hospitalized)
  • Franklin: 818 cases, 43 hospitalized, 20 deaths (+6 cases)
  • Gloucester: 1,377 cases, 39 hospitalized, 19 deaths (+25 cases)
  • Hampton: 6,706 cases, 222 hospitalized, 60 deaths (+113 cases, +1 hospitalized)
  • Isle of Wight: 2,053 cases, 97 hospitalized, 35 deaths (+40 cases)
  • James City County: 3185 cases, 110 hospitalized, 37 deaths (+61 cases)
  • Mathews: 411 cases, 16 hospitalized, 6 deaths (+4 cases)
  • Newport News: 9034 cases, 239 hospitalized, 83 deaths (+216 cases, +2 hospitalized)
  • Norfolk: 12,117 cases, 662 hospitalized, 136 deaths (+137 cases, +2 hospitalized)
  • Northampton: 603 cases, 63 hospitalized, 33 deaths (+8 cases)
  • Poquoson: 551 cases, 16 hospitalized, 7 deaths (+8 cases)
  • Portsmouth: 6215 cases, 491 hospitalized, 96 deaths (+70 cases)
  • Southampton: 1,646 cases, 41 hospitalized, 46 deaths (+8 cases)
  • Suffolk: 5,390 cases, 284 hospitalized, 104 deaths (+62 cases, +4 hospitalized)
  • Virginia Beach: 24,600 cases, 1018 hospitalized, 194 deaths (+359 cases)
  • Williamsburg: 444 cases, 24 hospitalized, 8 deaths (+7 cases)
  • York: 2,347 cases, 41 hospitalized, 16 deaths (+60 cases)

Key local metrics

  • 1,411 new cases, trending up
  • 0 new deaths, back down recently
  • +29 current hospitalizations (769 total), back down recently
  • Test positivity: 17.8%, trending back down slightly

Test positivity (Sunday’s numbers)

  • Chesapeake — 21.6% — trending back down overall
  • Eastern Shore — 14.8% — trending back down overall
  • Hampton — 18.3% —  trending back down overall
  • Norfolk — 17.4% — still trending up overall
  • Peninsula — 15.9% — trending back down
  • Portsmouth — 22.3% — trending back down overall
  • Virginia Beach — 16.9% — trending back down overall
  • Western Tidewater —15.8% — trending back down

Click here to view more coronavirus data from the Virginia Department of Health.