NY Coronavirus Outbreak To Peak In 45 Days: Cuomo

NEW YORK — The new coronavirus outbreak will worsen for another 45 days, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Tuesday. That means the greatest pressure on the state's health care system will come at the end of April and beginning of May.

"There is a curve," Cuomo said Tuesday morning during a media briefing. "Everyone's talked about the height and speed of the curve. I've said that curve is going to turn into a wave and the wave is going to crash on the hospital system. That's what the numbers would dictate. This is about numbers, this is about facts, this is not about science fiction movies. We have months and months of data about how this virus operates."

New York State Health Commissioner Howard Zucker said two separate groups of epidemiologists and statisticians looked at the data.

Don't miss updates about coronavirus precautions on New York as they are announced. Sign up for Patch news alerts and newsletters.

"They came up with the same answer," Zucker said.

Later Tuesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the country's top infectious disease specialist, said the estimate was reasonable, though he said he preferred a range if he had to make a prediction.

The problem is a multi-faceted one, Cuomo said his experts are telling him. There is a lack of beds, equipment and trained medical staff to deal with the coming surge in severely ill patients.

In New York, 264 people making up some of the 1,374 positive cases are hospitalized, Cuomo said.

At the outbreak's peak, New York, with a population of 19.5 million, could need 55,000 to 110,000 hospital beds. Now there are 53,000 beds total. There are about 3,000 intensive care unit beds and experts predict the state's hospitals will need 18,000 to 37,000. There are just 4,000 ventilators in New York state hospitals.

Those are the calculations that keep him up at night, Cuomo said.

"We're talking about acutely ill, mainly senior citizens who have an underlying illness," he said. "They have emphysema, they have heart disease and then they get coronavirus. The reason it's so important is it's my mother, it's your mother, your sister, your cousin. We honor them with every cell in our body and we're going to make sure they're here with us this Christmas, this Hanukkah, this Kwanzaa."

Public health experts and hospital officials across the state are talking about how to create extra capacity, Cuomo said. They're examining regulations about how much space is required per hospital bed, talking about temporary facilities, and reaching out to nursing schools and medical schools to talk about staffing. They're working with FEMA, the National Guard, the Army Corps of Engineers and the building trades unions. And Cuomo reached out to President Donald Trump.

"I am telling you this government cannot meet this crisis without the resources and capacity of the federal government," Cuomo said. "I spoke to the president this morning again. He is ready, willing and able to help. We need their help specially, on the hospital capacity issue. We need FEMA ... I said to the president, who is a New Yorker, who I've known for many years, 'I put my hand out in partnership. I need your help, I want your help and New Yorkers will do everything they can to be partners with the federal government.'"

Meanwhile, if the curve is not flattening to a level the state's health care system can sustain, he said he would take more steps to slow the spread of the virus.

"Forty-five days — you're limited what you can actually get done, but I'm working with governments and organizations all over the state," Cuomo said

Coronavirus in New York and beyond:

• To Keep Seniors Safe At Home, Medicare Expands Telemedicine
• 2nd Coronavirus Death In Rockland, New Exposure Warning
• To Stop Coronavirus In Its Tracks, Here’s Your Guide To 5 Degrees Of Separation
• At 442 Hudson Valley Cases, Coronavirus Turns Life 'Upside Down'
• The Coronavirus Dictionary: Social Distancing, Flatten The Curve
• New York Coronavirus: Macy’s Temporarily Closes All Locations