Coronavirus in Arizona: Maricopa County surpasses 200,000 cases since pandemic began; 20 new deaths in state

Arizona reported more than 4,300 new COVID-19 cases and 20 new known deaths on Friday, as Maricopa County for the first time surpassed 200,000 coronavirus cases.

The ongoing increase in cases and hospitalizations comes as Arizona's health system prepares for the pressures of a new COVID-19 wave. The situation is worsening both statewide and nationally at the start of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

A report released last week by Arizona State University predicts that hospital capacity in Arizona will be exceeded in December and that without additional public health measures, holiday gatherings are likely to cause 600 to 1,200 additional deaths from COVID-19 in Arizona by Feb. 1 beyond current scenario death projections.

Identified COVID-19 cases in Arizona rose by 4,314 on Friday to 318,638, and 20 new known deaths were reported, taking the total number of known deaths to 6,588, according to the daily report from the Arizona Department of Health Services.

New cases have eclipsed 1,000 for 25 of the past 28 days, with 18 of those days seeing more than 2,000 new cases for the first time since the state's summer surge. Friday was the 11th time the state reported more than 4,000 new cases in a day since the pandemic began (six days in late June and early July, plus last Thursday, Friday, Sunday, Tuesday and Friday). The U.S. has been reporting record-high daily new cases of late. 

New-case rates in Arizona fall below the rates reported in 24 other states, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's COVID Data Tracker says. Cases are surging in North Dakota, where the new-case rate per 100,000 people for the previous seven days was 155 as of Wednesday, the CDC reports. By comparison, Arizona's rate was 53.7.

The increase in new COVID-19 cases in the summer was an early indicator of more hospitalizations and deaths in the weeks to come.

In his first news briefing since Oct. 29, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey last week said rising COVID-19 numbers in the state mean "getting back to normal is not in the cards right now." But Ducey did not announce any new restrictions or requirements on Arizonans to stop the spread of COVID-19, despite increasing calls in recent days for a statewide mask mandate and other measures.

Arizona could get its first doses of a COVID-19 vaccine before Christmas, Ducey said Tuesday in an interview with KTAR radio. Health care workers and first responders will be prioritized.

The number of patients hospitalized statewide for known or suspected COVID-19 cases was at 2,301 on Thursday, the highest number reported since July 31. At the peak of Arizona's surge in July, the number of hospitalized patients suspected or confirmed to have the virus exceeded 3,000.

The number of patients with suspected or known COVID-19 in intensive care units across Arizona was at 532 on Thursday, which was the most ICU beds in use in a single day since Aug. 8. The level is below what it was in July, when ICU beds in use for COVID-19 reached 970.

The number of Arizonans with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 on ventilators was at 325 on Thursday, a slight drop from Wednesday's 335 — which was the most ventilators in use in a single day since Aug. 10. In mid-July, as many as 687 patients across the state with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 were on ventilators.

Wednesday's dashboard shows 85% of inpatient beds and 89% of ICU beds in use, which includes people being treated for COVID-19 and other patients. COVID-19 patients were using 27% of all inpatient beds and 30% of ICU beds. Overall, 39% of ventilators were in use.

After hospital occupancy in Arizona hit 90% over the weekend, the state's COVID-19 surge line suspended requests for out-of-state patient transfers.

Percent positivity, which refers to the percent of COVID-19 diagnostic tests that are positive, has gone up, which many health experts consider an early indicator of a spike in illnesses.

Of known diagnostic test results from last week, the percent positivity was 12%, up from 11% the week prior, according to the state, which has a unique way of calculating percent positivity. Percent positivity was at 4% for several weeks during August, September and October, according to state data.

Johns Hopkins University calculates Arizona's seven-day moving average of percent positives at 19.2% as of Friday. It shows the state's percent positivity is trending upward.

A positivity rate of 5% is considered a good benchmark that the spread of the disease is under control.

Reported cases in Arizona: 318,638

Cases increased by 4,314, or 1.4%, from Thursday's 314,326 identified cases since the outbreak began.

Cases by county: 201,340 in Maricopa, 38,668 in Pima, 17,476 in Yuma, 16,110 in Pinal, 7,976 in Navajo, 7,275 in Coconino, 6,079 in Mohave, 5,309 in Apache, 5,028 in Yavapai, 3,779 in Santa Cruz, 3,529 in Cochise,  2,897 in Gila, 2,132 in Graham, 825 in La Paz and 215 in Greenlee, according to state numbers.

The rate of cases per 100,000 people is highest in Yuma County, followed by Apache, Santa Cruz and Navajo counties. The rate in Yuma County is 7,600 cases per 100,000 people. By comparison, the U.S. average rate as of Wednesday was 3,820 cases per 100,000 people, according to the CDC.

The Navajo Nation reported 15,862 cases and 645 confirmed deaths as of Thursday. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah. Tribal leaders reinstated a three-week stay-at-home lockdown starting Nov. 16 due to what officials have called the "uncontrolled spread" of COVID-19 in the tribe's communities. 

The Arizona Department of Corrections reported 2,954 inmates had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Wednesday, including 1,067 in Tucson; 41,870 inmates statewide have been tested. A total of 996 prison staff members have self-reported testing positive, the state Corrections Department said. Twenty incarcerated people in Arizona have been confirmed to have died of COVID-19, with eight additional deaths under investigation. 

While race/ethnicity is unknown for 29% of all COVID-19 cases statewide, 29% of cases are Hispanic or Latino, 28% are white, 5% are Native American, 3% are Black and 1% are Asian/Pacific Islander.

Of those who have tested positive in Arizona since the start of the pandemic, 15% were younger than 20, 47% were 20-44, 15% were 45-54, 12% were 55-64 and 12% were over age 65.

Laboratories have completed 2,203,517 diagnostic tests for COVID-19, 10.4% of which have come back positive. That number now includes both PCR and antigen testing. The percentage of positive tests had increased since mid-May but began decreasing in July and held steady around 4% for several weeks, per the state. Last week, it was at 12%, up from 11% and 9% the two weeks prior. The state numbers leave out data from labs that do not report electronically.

The state Health Department has started including probable cases as anyone with a positive antigen test, another type of test to determine current infection. Antigen tests (not related to antibody tests) are a newer type of COVID-19 diagnostic test that uses a nasal swab or another fluid sample to test for current infection. Results are typically produced within 15 minutes. 

A positive antigen test result is considered very accurate, but there's an increased chance of false-negative results, the Mayo Clinic says. Depending on the situation, Mayo Clinic officials say a doctor may recommend a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test to confirm a negative antigen test result.

Arizona as of Wednesday had the 25th highest overall rate of infection in the country. Ahead of Arizona in cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began are North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Utah, Montana, Idaho, Illinois, Wyoming, Tennessee, Minnesota, Arkansas, Kansas, Mississippi, Rhode Island, Alabama, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Nevada, Indiana, Missouri, Florida and Georgia, according to the CDC.

Arizona's infection rate is 4,279 cases per 100,000 people, the CDC said. The national average is 3,820 cases per 100,000 people, though the rates in states hard hit early on in the pandemic may be an undercount because of a lack of available testing in March and April.

Reported deaths: 6,588

Deaths by county: 3,966 in Maricopa, 682 in Pima, 380 in Yuma, 269 in Navajo, 258 in Pinal, 259 in Mohave, 195 in Apache, 169 in Coconino, 116 in Yavapai, 90 in Gila, 79 in Cochise, 69 in Santa Cruz, 34 in Graham, 20 in La Paz and fewer than three in Greenlee.

People aged 65 and older made up 4,715 of the 6,588 deaths, or 72%. Following that, 16% of deaths were in the 55-64 age group, 7% were 45-54 and 6% were 20-44 years old.

While race/ethnicity is unknown for 11% of deaths, 44% of those who died were white, 29% were Hispanic or Latino, 11% were Native American, 3% were Black and 1% were Asian/Pacific Islander, the state data show.

The global death toll as of Friday morning was 1,435,284 and the U.S. had the highest death count of any country in the world, at 263,468, according to Johns Hopkins University. Arizona's death total of 6,588 deaths represents 2.5% of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. as of Friday.

The COVID-19 death rate in Arizona was 90 per 100,000 people as of Wednesday, according to the CDC, putting it 13th in the country in a state ranking that separates New York City and New York state. The U.S. average is 79 deaths per 100,000 people, the CDC says.

Behind New York City, at 288 deaths per 100,000 people, the CDC put the highest death rates ahead of Arizona as New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Louisiana, Mississippi, Rhode Island, North Dakota, Illinois, the District of Columbia, South Dakota and Michigan.

Reach the reporter at bfrank@arizonarepublic.com or 602-444-8529.  Follow her on Twitter @brieannafrank. 

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