Is Titanium Sands's (ASX:TSL) Share Price Gain Of 150% Well Earned?

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The Titanium Sands Limited (ASX:TSL) share price has had a bad week, falling 15%. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last year have been very strong. Like an eagle, the share price soared 150% in that time. So some might not be surprised to see the price retrace some. Only time will tell if there is still too much optimism currently reflected in the share price.

View our latest analysis for Titanium Sands

Titanium Sands recorded just AU$2,915 in revenue over the last twelve months, which isn't really enough for us to consider it to have a proven product. So it seems that the investors focused more on what could be, than paying attention to the current revenues (or lack thereof). For example, investors may be hoping that Titanium Sands finds some valuable resources, before it runs out of money.

Companies that lack both meaningful revenue and profits are usually considered high risk. You should be aware that there is always a chance that this sort of company will need to issue more shares to raise money to continue pursuing its business plan. While some such companies do very well over the long term, others become hyped up by promoters before eventually falling back down to earth, and going bankrupt (or being recapitalized). Some Titanium Sands investors have already had a taste of the sweet taste stocks like this can leave in the mouth, as they gain popularity and attract speculative capital.

Titanium Sands had cash in excess of all liabilities of just AU$1.8m when it last reported (December 2019). So if it has not already moved to replenish reserves, we think the near-term chances of a capital raising event are pretty high. It's a testament to the popularity of the business plan that the share price gained 84% in the last year , despite the weak balance sheet. The image below shows how Titanium Sands's balance sheet has changed over time; if you want to see the precise values, simply click on the image. You can see in the image below, how Titanium Sands's cash levels have changed over time (click to see the values).

ASX:TSL Historical Debt, March 13th 2020
ASX:TSL Historical Debt, March 13th 2020

In reality it's hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. One thing you can do is check if company insiders are buying shares. It's often positive if so, assuming the buying is sustained and meaningful. Luckily we are in a position to provide you with this free chart of insider buying (and selling).

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Titanium Sands shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 150% over one year. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 5.1% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 7 warning signs for Titanium Sands (4 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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