To look at the way richer countries are spending money on the energy transition, you might think we’re within reach of bringing climate change under control.

Investment in clean energy has only accelerated in the years since COVID-19 struck. In the second half of the last decade, it grew at a 2% annual rate. Since 2020, that’s risen to 12% a year. This year, it will hit $1.4 trillion, the International Energy Agency wrote in its annual investment report Wednesday, putting green power comprehensively ahead of the roughly $1 trillion that’s being spent on fossil fuels.

If you assume those trends will continue, it looks even more promising. Just continuing to inflate existing spending at current growth rates would imply that advanced economies and China spend in the region of $650 billion a year on clean power over the remainder of this decade, the IEA wrote — within sight of the $850 billion-odd that’s needed to put the world on track to zero emissions by 2050.