More coronavirus testing in Ohio isn’t turning up higher rate of positive cases

Increased testing for the coronavirus in Ohio is not finding a higher rate of people infected with COVID-19.

In fact, 94% of people have tested negative in the past 40 days, leading state officials and medical experts to say they are encouraged by Ohio’s fight against the pandemic.

But they warn that it’s too soon to celebrate and return to the way life was before the disease spread around the world.

“We can’t let our guard down,” said Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff, chief medical officer for OhioHealth. “The bigger picture for me is a positive and I am encouraged by the numbers. But as we return to common life, we must continue being responsible and do the things we have been doing with social distancing and personal hygiene that helped get us to this point.”

The data provided by the Ohio Department of Health through a records request by The Dispatch shows that as of Memorial Day, 340,000 tests had been administered since recordkeeping began by the state March 4.

That’s 3 percent of the state’s population. Ninety percent of the tests were negative.

Since the state began reopening businesses May 1, 94 percent of those tested were negative. These are new cases, meaning it would not include people who had the virus and recovered.

That number has held steady since restaurants began reopening May 15.

Here are the other key findings in the data:

The state has more than doubled tests given per day compared with what was given in April. Tests given per day in May averaged 7,922 compared with 3,635 per day in April.

The number of new positive cases has declined steadily, from 697 a week in mid-April to 562 the week that ended May 23.

The percentage of negative tests is increasing.

Fewer tests are being ordered by doctors. The peak tests ordered by doctors was 10,879 on May 13. Since then that number has declined nearly every day. There were 6,791 tests ordered May 25.

In recent weeks, the number of new tests administered has leveled off despite there being more access to tests without a doctor’s referral.

At least 15 testing centers in the Columbus area don’t require a doctor’s referral. Many of those testing centers are neighborhood urgent-care facilities and said they had been open for testing for at least two to three weeks.

Gov. Mike DeWine said in April that increased testing would give him another “tool in the toolbox” that would allow him to make better decisions.

“The more tests you have the better information you can get,” he said.

Medical experts said they are encouraged that the number of positive coronavirus cases have been holding or declining the past six weeks.

But they are worried that the public will declare victory against the virus far too soon.

Dr. Michael Oglesbee, director of the Infectious Diseases Institute at Ohio State University, said the state needs to test many more Ohioans over an extended time period before making any sweeping statements.

“The next two weeks are going to be very informative as to how this all plays out,” he said. “As we start relaxing some of the measures to prevent infections and including the Memorial Day holiday, we are going to get some information.”

Oglesbee, whose group at Ohio State came up with the projection models that Dewine used to make his decisions early on in the pandemic, said there are some positives he sees in the data.

“From a trend perspective, this is tremendous,” he said. “We have plateaued it appears by the numbers, but you still have to remember people are getting infected.”

Vanderhoff said the lull in positive cases is evidence that the state’s tough decisions that shut down the economy and kept people at home have been effective.

“I am convinced the people here in Ohio get it,” Vanderhoff said. “We have demonstrated we can act together and do some pretty incredible stuff in a difficult time. This tells us we are doing a good job, but have to continue doing a good job as we get our lives back.”

State Rep. Paul Zeltwanger, R-Mason, has been critical of DeWine’s and Acton’s policies in dealing with the virus and has called them an overreaction.

Zeltwanger joined another state representative recently to call for Acton’s ouster.

Oglesbee said that until there is a vaccine, the only way to continue the fight against the virus is through herd immunity or social distancing.

But because so few Ohioans are testing positive, he said herd immunity is not an option at this point.

The doctors also said Ohio needs to dramatically increase testing.

The state ranks 44th in coronavirus testing per 100,000 population, according to data collected and analyzed by Johns Hopkins University of Medicine in Baltimore.

DeWine has said the state has the capacity to daily test double the number of the tests administered, but that isn’t happening.

It’s unclear if that’s because not enough people are seeking tests, doctors aren’t recommending them or whether other issues remain.

The Ohio Department of Health said in an email that to use the full testing capacity, there needs to be clear testing guidance on how to use tests to control the virus. The agency said it was reserving some testing to use during expected outbreaks.

The Health Department said testing to capacity also would require an “infrastructure” to get specimen kits out for testing and back to the labs, which requires a system, something the state doesn’t have, that would include scheduling, billing and reporting. The agency said it is close to completing a system for that.

Brian Fowler, ODH’s chief data officer, said a majority of those getting tested are still those presenting symptoms.

“We need to have as many tests as we can,” he said. “We know there are positive cases out there we are not catching.”

The state has said it has begun testing 1,200 random Ohioans who volunteer to see if they are infected or had been infected at one time with the virus.

That testing is to determine areas where the disease might have spread or be spreading.

Ohioans can get tested without a doctor’s referral. Google has provided a list of testing centers in their area.

Three urgent care centers contacted by The Dispatch said the tests are $100 without insurance, but some policies cover the testing. The turnaround time for results is two to three days.

“The virus is still there,” said Dr. Nicholas Kreatsoulas, chief clinical officer for Mount Carmel Health System. “We are not out of the woods yet. We are concerned about a possible surge in the future and people should remain focused daily on how they interact with one another.”

Kreatsoulas said that Mount Carmel, OhioHealth and Ohio State’s health systems are working together to increase testing and monitoring the virus’ effect on the central Ohio community.

He said Mount Carmel is conducting at least 300 tests a day at its medical facilities. Those being tested include people showing symptoms and others who are asymptomatic but are tested before elective procedures or being admitted to a hospital.

“All three health systems in our community are increasing testing,” Kreatsoulas said. “I know people want to get out now but we must remain cautious.”

lsullivan@dispatch.com

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mwagner@dispatch.com

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