NJ 'At Risk' Of Coronavirus Surge, Study Shows

NEW JERSEY - On the same day that Governor Phil Murphy tightened restrictions on outdoor gatherings due to an increase of COVID-19 transmission, a study from researchers and epidemiologists have raised New Jersey to the "at risk" level.

At the end of June the state was one of only three in the nation that looked likely to get the virus under control as it went from being, along with New York, the world's COVID-19 epicenter to having among the lowest daily diagnoses in the nation. But on July 3 reassigned New Jersey and New York to a medium-risk level and described the disease's spread in the state as "slow and controlled."

But Monday New Jersey slipped into the dark orange or "at risk" category.

"New Jersey is at risk of an outbreak. COVID cases are either increasing at a rate likely to overwhelm hospitals and/or the state’s COVID preparedness is below international standards," the group said.

Drilling down, New Jersey has averaged 4.7 new confirmed cases per day for every 100,000 residents over the past week. If these rates were to continue, anywhere from 2 to 20 percent of New Jersey’s population would be infected in the next year, the group noted.

The rate of transmission or infection rate that has been a big metric in driving Governor Phil Murphy's decision-making has also been on the rise. On average, each person in New Jersey with COVID is infecting 1.17 other people.

"This rate means the total number of active cases in New Jersey is growing at an unsustainable rate. If this trend continues, the hospital system may become overloaded. Caution is warranted," the group said.

"We remain in a public health emergency," Murphy said. "Over the last week, we saw numbers of new cases that we hadn’t seen in eight weeks. Our rate of transmission is now more than double where it was a few weeks ago. Everyone needs to get it together, and fast. This is not yet past us."

Another metric of concern surrounds contact tracing. The report notes that their data shows New Jersey has 800 contact tracers. With an average of 420 new daily cases, they estimate New Jersey needs 2,100 contact tracing staff to trace all new cases in 48 hours, before too many other people are infected.

"This means that New Jersey is likely able to trace 38 percentof new COVID infections in 48 hours. At these lower levels of tracing, it is unlikely New Jersey will be able to successfully identify and isolate sources of disease spread fast enough to prevent new outbreaks," the group said.

On the positive side of the report, New Jersey remains in the green in both positive test rate and ICU headroom used.

A low percentage, 1.3 percent, of COVID tests were positive, which suggests enough widespread, aggressive testing in New Jersey to detect most new cases," the group said. As far as ICU headroom used, the group noted New Jersey has about 766 ICU beds. Their current estimates are that none are currently occupied by non-COVID patients. Of the 766 ICU beds remaining, 113 are needed by COVID cases, or 15 percent of available beds.

This suggests there is likely enough capacity to absorb a wave of new COVID infections," the group said.

"We’re going to get through this together – and come out stronger and more resilient as a state. First, we have to lower the rate of transmission and reverse the spread of coronavirus," Murphy said. "We all need to be pulling together. There are no excuses anymore."

You can read the full report, and drill down to each county through their website.

Thanks for reading! Learn more about posting announcements or events to your local Patch site. Have a news tip you'd like to share? Or maybe you have a press release you would like to submit or a correction you'd like to request? Send an email to russ.crespolini@patch.com

Subscribe to your local Patch newsletter. You can also have them delivered to your phone screen by downloading, or by visiting the Google Play store.