Ask the Captain: When will air travel return to normal? Would you fly overseas in 2021?

What is your best semi-educated guess on when air travel will return to normal after the pandemic is over? Where would you rank this among previous slowdowns such as 9/11 and the 2008 economic downturn?

– LGR, Hixson, Tennessee

Those are hard questions.

The commercial aviation industry's return to normalcy will probably be gradual, as it was after 9/11 and the recession of 2008. I am hopeful that traffic will begin to return early in the summer and grow from there. I intend to travel as soon as possible. 

This is as devastating as 9/11 to the industry, and perhaps worse since the scope of coronavirus is worldwide.

Given the pandemic, would you be confident in booking international travel for the early part of 2021? Many airlines are stating their operations will be much smaller with a drastic decline in demand.

– Zach, Pittsburgh

Yes, I would travel internationally in early 2021.

The airlines will be different, the number of flights will probably not be as high as prior to the pandemic, but there will be sufficient flights. 

It is impossible to predict what the status of the COVID-19 virus will be like by then, so monitoring the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's recommendations is a good precaution. 

Enjoy your trip.

John Cox is a retired airline captain with US Airways and runs his own aviation safety consulting company, Safety Operating Systems.

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