Analyzing NY Rangers vs. Carolina Hurricanes qualifying round series: Forwards

As we await the NHLPA's approval of new health protocols and a Collective Bargaining Agreement extension, let's precariously begin to look ahead.

There's still a chance that the coronavirus throws a wrench into the NHL's plan for a 24-team tournament to conclude the 2019-20 season, but it's fun to think about what it will look like if it does come to fruition.

With that in mind, I've been taking time to break down the potential qualifying series between the New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes.

SALARY CAP: What does a flat cap mean for the Rangers in 2020-21?

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Each day this week, we'll analyze the strengths and weaknesses for both teams. Let's begin with the forwards: 

New York Rangers

The driving forces are Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad — a duo that has quickly become one of the NHL's best. 

Panarin is a legitimate Hart Trophy candidate after tying for third in the league with 95 points in 69 games, while Zibanejad is the Rangers' do-it-all centerman who finished the season on a goal-scoring tear to amass a career-high of 41 in just 57 games.

They began the season powering a dominant top line, but it wasn't long before Rangers coach David Quinn decided to separate them. The result was two highly productive lines, as Panarin gelled with center Ryan Strome and Zibanejad thrived with familiar linemates Chris Kreider and Pavel Buchnevich.

Kreider was selected to his first-ever all-star team this season thanks to a midseason run of 32 points in 30 games, which ultimately convinced the Rangers to extend his contract prior to the February trade deadline. He fractured his foot three games later, but the coronavirus pause allowed for plenty of time to heal. Kreider was one of the first players to report and skate for Phase 2 of the NHL's "Return to Play."

The top-six forwards should be locked in for the series against the Hurricanes, but the bottom six will need to step up. 

There are question marks.

One was answered recently, with doctors declaring that Kaapo Kakko can safely play, if he chooses, despite having Type 1 diabetes and celiac disease. 

The No. 2 overall pick in last year's draft experienced predictable growing pains, collecting 23 points (10 goals and 13 assists) in 66 games while struggling with his defensive assignments. But Quinn noted in a recent interview with MSG Network that he believes the time off may have benefited the rookie.

"I think he feels recharged," Quinn said. "Talking to him during this pandemic, I sense a little bit more pep in his step. Even though he’s over in Finland, he’s a little bit more engaging. I think he’s getting more comfortable. I think this might actually, in his mind, be the start of his second season."

Kakko should play alongside fellow former first-round pick Filip Chytil, who matched Kakko's 23 points (albeit in six fewer games) and solidified the role of third-line center.

The left winger on that line is more of an uncertainty, with Phil Di Giuseppe and Brett Howden the leading candidates. Neither offers much offensive production, but both bring a high motor and have earned Quinn's trust.

The other question mark for the bottom six is the availability of Brendan Lemieux. He plays with a much-needed edge and has a knack for drawing penalties, but sources have confirmed that a suspension for an illegal hit in what turned out to be the regular-season finale will carryover for at least one tournament game. 

Lemieux's replacement will likely be Greg McKegg, who is capable of centering the fourth line in between either Di Giuseppe or Howden and former Hurricane Julien Gauthier.

Gauthier could be an X-factor. He was selected by Carolina in the first round of the 2016 draft and scored 37 goals in 44 games for their AHL affiliate in Charlotte this season. He was traded to New York in February and was just finding his footing when the season paused. 

Carolina Hurricanes

Carolina’s offense, as far as the forwards are concerned, is powered by three guys — Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Teuvo Teravainen. Each eclipsed 60 points in 68 games this season, with Aho leading in both total points (66) and goals (38).

The duo of Aho and Svechnikov, in particular, represents major upside. Aho will turn 23 in late July and Svechnikov recently turned 20, so they’re just scratching the surface of their potential. But they’re both already established as offensive forces with high-skill levels.

Svechnikov, who was drafted second overall in 2018, went viral this season with multiple “lacrosse goals” in which he lifted the puck on his stick from behind the goal and whipped it in behind the goaltender’s back.

At 6-foot-2, 195 pounds, the talented Russian possesses a great combination of size, speed, hands and playmaking ability. He rated tops among Carolina forwards this season in both Goals Above Replacement (14.2) and Wins Above Replacement (2.5), according to Evolving Hockey. 

The trio of Svechnikov, Aho and Teravainen developed into a feared top line for the Hurricanes this season and will be a handful for the Rangers to deal with. In their four head-to-head matchups, they combined for seven points, including three goals from Aho.

But heading into the February trade deadline, there was a desire to improve the second and third lines. That’s why the ‘Canes acquired Vincent Trocheck from the Florida Panthers in exchange for four players.

The 26-year-old managed a modest two points in his first seven games with Carolina, but he has a track record of putting up points. He posted a 75-point season in 2017-18 before missing time in 2018-19 due to injury.

Trocheck’s 38 points (11 goals and 27 assists) this season ranks fourth among Hurricanes’ forwards behind the Big 3. At the time of the pause, he was centering the second line in between 23-year-old Warren Foegele and 21-year-old Martin Necas.

If the ‘Canes stick with those combinations, Trocheck would be the oldest player in an inexperienced top-six. But the bottom six should feature veterans Jordan Staal and Justin Williams, who have played in a combined 243 playoff games and won a combined three Stanley Cups. In fact, Williams was on the only Stanley Cup-winning team in franchise history in 2006.

Carolina’s best defensive forwards are Staal, Nino Niederreiter and Jordan Martinook, who bring physicality and a grinding mentality that has defined the bottom six. Teravainen also grades out as a solid defender. 

Who has the edge?

The Hurricanes' top line of Svechnikov, Aho and Teravainen is scary good and probably the best unit in this series, but the Rangers' ability to have Zibanejad and Panarin each lead their own highly productive line gives them a slight advantage.

Both teams will have to overcome youth, but Carolina's is concentrated in their top six, including a second line that has had very little to develop chemistry since acquiring Trocheck. 

Vincent Z. Mercogliano is the New York Rangers beat reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Read more of his work at lohud.com/sports/rangers/ and follow him on Twitter @vzmercogliano.