ACM Awards: Who will win (and who should) at first-ever Nashville ceremony

The envelopes have been sealed for six months now, but the wait is nearly over. Next Wednesday, we'll finally find out who wins and loses at the Academy of Country Music Awards. 

The ceremony was supposed to have been held in April in Las Vegas, but was forced to postpone due to the coronavirus pandemic.

That's also led the academy to move its show to Music City for the first time in its 55-year history. On Sept. 16, the show will broadcast from three iconic Nashville venues: the Grand Ole Opry House, the Ryman Auditorium and the Bluebird Cafe. 

THE PERFORMERS: Miranda Lambert, Tim McGraw, Luke Combs to perform

Voters had to make some tough decisions this year, and so did we — and having an extra six months to mull it over didn't make it any easier. Below, we've collected our picks for who will win (and who should) in the ceremony's most coveted categories. Remember, it's based solely on their output in 2019. 

The 55th annual ACM Awards airs Sept. 16 at 7 p.m. CST on CBS. 

Entertainer of the Year 

Nominees: Luke Bryan, Eric Church, Luke Combs, Thomas Rhett and Carrie Underwood. 

Flip a coin, country music fans. Underwood and Church face off for the ACMs' top prize, and — unlike the polarizing result at least year's CMA Awards — Garth Brooks doesn't stand in the way. Each artist logged remarkable years, leading respective arena tours in support of top-charting 2018 album releases ("Cry Pretty" for Underwood, "Desperate Man" for Church).

Church edges Underwood on the road. His "Double Down" tour broke from playing two-night stands inside arenas for a record-setting show at Nashville's Nissan Stadium in May 2019. Church also topped all country music performers on Billboard's annual "Money Maker" list in 2019, earning nearly $26 million from mostly touring.

Meanwhile, Underwood outsold Church on her latest album release, earning platinum certification for "Cry Pretty." She embarked on her respective arena run, a rare all-female bill in country music, while continuing to represent the genre on some of entertainment's largest scales: singing an opening tune each week on North America's most popular program, "Sunday Night Football," and co-hosting the CMA Awards for a 12th year. 

Will win and should win: Eric Church or Carrie Underwood (a toss-up!) 

Female Artist of the Year 

Nominees: Kelsea Ballerini, Miranda Lambert, Maren Morris, Kacey Musgraves and Carrie Underwood 

There'd be no reason to second-guess the ACMs if this award were one day renamed in Miranda Lambert's honor. Like Tom Brady in January, she's dominated the field — winning nine years in a row. Only in 2019, when Kacey Musgraves took the title, did Lambert's streak end. But she could easily reclaim the trophy this year. Lambert returns to the ACMs supporting an excellent new record, "Wildcard," and after a chunk of 2019 headlining a tour that featured Maren Morris; her supergroup, Pistol Annies; Ashley McBryde; and more.

A new streak may be born, however. In 2019, Musgraves doubled down on the wildfire success of standout record "Golden Hour." Between headlining multiple nights at Radio City Music Hall and playing a sold-out Bridgestone Arena concert, Musgraves anchored marquee slots at Bonnaroo, Austin City Limits and the Newport Folk Festival. She also opened her exhibit at the Country Music Hall of Fame and Museum and debuted a holiday special on streaming service Amazon. Musgraves? Lambert? Either way, it's a win. 

Who will win: Miranda Lambert

Who should win: Kacey Musgraves 

Male Artist of the Year

Nominees: Dierks Bentley, Luke Combs, Thomas Rhett, Chris Stapleton, Keith Urban

2019 was a fine year for Chris, Keith, Dierks and Thomas — heck, it’s clearly a fine time for dudes in country music in general. But Luke Combs’ year was something else.

The 30-year-old’s historic, record-breaking 2019 was defined by his sophomore album, “What You See Is What You Get,” which was easily the top-selling country album of the year — despite being released in mid-November. He also made the leap to headlining (and selling out) arenas. It’s been a minute since country music saw a new juggernaut like Combs, and we’d bet that ACM voters are more than ready to hitch their wagons.

Will win and should win: Luke Combs

Album of the Year

Nominees: Thomas Rhett's "Center Point Road," Maren Morris' "Girl," Jon Pardi's "Heartache Medication," Luke Combs' "What You See Is What You Get," Miranda Lambert's "Wildcard"

The slow burn of “The Bones” — which topped Billboard’s Country Airplay chart in February, six months after its release — is a sign that Maren Morris’ sophomore album, “Girl,” has true depth. Sure, there’s plenty to admire at the surface: its instant anthem of a title track, the funky pop of “The Feels” and “Flavor,” and the roadhouse singalong “All My Favorite People.” But this album’s real power lies in songs like “Bones,” which takes time to sink in — and then sticks with you. Combs and Rhett can boast more chart-topping tracks, but “Girl” truly thrives as a whole.

On the other hand, Miranda Lambert didn’t miss a step on her bold and brassy “Wildcard,” which deals out a set of remarkably catchy songs with the ever-imaginative production of Jay Joyce. The ACMs clearly love Lambert, and she hasn’t given them any reason to quit now.

Should win: Maren Morris

Will win: Miranda Lambert

Single of the Year

Nominees: Blake Shelton's "God's Country," Old Dominion's "One Man Band," Kacey Musgraves' "Rainbow," Lee Brice's "Rumor," Lady A's "What If I Never Get Over You"

“God’s Country” seems unstoppable here. It’s hard to think of another recent country single that has so strongly resonated with listeners nationwide — as Shelton sings the praises of working, worshipping and dying on a land that you never considered your own. He called it the biggest hit of his career — and that’s saying something when it’s his 26th No. 1.

But while “God’s Country” played to the base, Kacey Musgraves’ “Rainbow” spoke to millions of new fans around the world, with a tender call for perseverance that often brought first-time listeners to tears. But those listeners rarely heard the song via country radio — “Rainbow” didn’t even crack the Top 30, continuing Musgraves’ rocky relationship with country airwaves.

Should win: “Rainbow”

Will win: “God’s Country”

Song of the Year 

Nominees: “10,000 Hours” by Dan + Shay feat. Justin Bieber; “Girl Goin’ Nowhere” by Ashley McBryde; “God’s Country” by Blake Shelton; “One Man Band” by Old Dominion; “Some of It” by Eric Church

Dan + Shay enlisted a perennial pop star for one of the year's sugary-sweetest country-pop love songs. Launching last fall and extending success into 2020, "10,000 Hours" didn't just make a splash; it landed an outright cannonball in Nashville waters. The song spent 21 consecutive weeks topping Billboard's Hot Country Songs chart and climbed to No. 1 on the all-important Country Airplay chart. And — given this song's massive success plus the tenderhearted genre-crossing "moment" it shepherded last year — it'll likely score Bieber an ACM honor for the first time in his career. 

Dan + Shay's toughest competition may be Shelton's "God's Country," but McBryde's prophetic anthem "Girl Goin' Nowhere" arguably plays as the best song in this year's entry. 

Will win: "10,000 Hours" by Dan + Shay feat. Justin Bieber 

Should win: "Girl Goin' Nowhere" by Ashley McBryde