Buffalo Bills have third best odds to make playoffs in AFC based on model simulation

Buffalo Bills v Dallas Cowboys

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 28: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates a touchdown with Jon Feliciano #76 against the Dallas Cowboys in the second half at AT&T Stadium on November 28, 2019 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)Getty Images

There are no guarantees in the NFL on a year-to-year basis, but SportsLine.com feels the Buffalo Bills have a pretty good chance of making the playoffs in 2020.

In case you are not familiar with SportsLine, the site says their aim is to make accurate projections and predictions using a combination of advanced data models, the latest news and information and the opinions of industry experts for sports fans.

SportsLine’s latest model simulated the 2020 NFL season 10,000 times and kept track of which teams made the playoffs each season. When all was said and done, the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs topped the list and made the playoffs over 97% of the time. That should come as no surprise as the two teams enter the year as the AFC Super Bowl favorites.

No other AFC team came close to making the playoffs 97% of the time, but the Bills found themselves third on the list. According to SportsLine, the Bills made the playoffs 67.7% of the time in their simulations. In simpler terms, the Bills made the playoffs 6,770 times in SportsLine’s 10,000 simulations.

With Tom Brady out of the AFC East, it makes sense that the Bills’ odds of making the postseason would be so high. The team has made the playoffs in two of the past three seasons as a Wild Card team, but now have a clear path to their first division title since 1995.

Based on SportsLine’s model, the Bills are the overwhelming favorite to win the AFC East. Compared to the Bills making it in the playoffs 67.7% of the time, the Patriots made the playoffs almost 47 percent of the time. The Jets (16.6%) and Dolphins (10.6) did not fare nearly as well.

Here’s a look at how every AFC team fared in Sportsline’s model simulation.

From an overall talent standpoint, it’s fair to say the Bills have the best overall roster in the AFC East. That said, winning games is about a lot more than just overall talent.

Buffalo’s overall success in 2020 lies mostly on the development of Josh Allen in year three, but team health, in-division play and a lot more will determine the eventual winner of the AFC East.

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