More than two years have passed since PTI came into power. But the party is yet to fulfil several promises made to agriculturists. This is despite a PTI-led coalition government is at the centre and in Punjab while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is being ruled single-handedly by PTI. PTI is also part of the ruling coalition government in Balochistan. Only Sindh is under the rule of PPP, one of the two major opposition parties — the other being PML-N.

Agricultural growth slipped to 0.6 per cent in 2018-19, the first year of PTI government, from 3.9pc in 2017-18, the last year of PML-N. In 2019-20, the second year of PTI government, growth in agriculture rose to 2.7pc, according to the State Bank of Pakistan.

The decline in agricultural growth in 2018-19 was partly responsible for depressing the overall GDP growth to 1.9pc from 5.5pc in 2017-18. Initial estimates picked up in agriculture in 2019-20 which was largely responsible for containing GDP decline to 0.4pc. Revision of growth data for 2019-20 is very much likely to show lesser growth in agriculture. And a downward revision is certain, keeping in view the International Monetary Fund and World Bank claims that our GDP fell by 2pc in 2019-20 and not 0.4pc.

The PTI government has seemingly missed a key requirement of agricultural growth and development: inter-provincial harmony and an exemplary working relationship between the federation and provinces

In its 2018 election manifesto, PTI had promised to cut input costs for agriculture by (1) optimising existing and introducing new subsidy programmes (2) increasing access to credit with easy terms of repayment and (3) sharing costs of investment required to improve productivity.

Obviously, the broader objective was to ensure a higher growth of agriculture sector which did not happen as the sector suffered from structural problems, absent or scant federal policy support and obvious lack of the required inter-provincial harmony. Besides, it took a hit from Covid-19 necessitated lockdowns in the last quarter of 2019-20.

After the devolution of agriculture as a fully provincial subject from 2010-11, growth in this sector gradually peaked at 3.9pc in 2017-18 and averaged above 2.4pc during the eight year period — between 2010-11 and 2017-18. The average growth rate could have been higher if in 2015-16 agricultural growth had not plunged to 0.15pc. (In that year, depressed commodity prices, unfavourable weather conditions and pest attacks following erratic and heavy rains in Kharif season had taken a toll on agriculture).

The PTI’s electoral claim of bringing an agricultural revolution in the country ought to be judged against this backdrop. Starting with a 0.6pc growth in agriculture in 2018-19 the party has apparently done well by achieving 2.7pc growth in 2019-20 but, as said earlier, 2.7pc growth could be revised downwards. If the revised growth estimate stays around 2.4pc for 2019-20 and if PTI government manages to ensure a gradual increase in it in the next three years of its tenure, that would be a real achievement. But if the revised estimates fall below 2pc and if growth during this fiscal year and in the next two years cannot come close to 4pc then that would be a big problem.

From day one of its tenure, the PTI government has seemingly missed a key requirement of agricultural growth and development in Pakistan. And that is inter-provincial harmony and an exemplary working relationship between the federation and all the four provinces.

The credit of exposing the dark world of sugar and wheat millers goes to PTI. But the problem is its own members and supporters were also found guilty in both sugar and wheat crises. And, accountability actions against sugar and wheat “mafias” have not yet led to any visible increase in productivity levels of sugar and wheat sectors.

In fact, a third wheat crisis is already in the making due to continued mismanagement in the entire wheat supply chain — from harvest to official procurement and private sector purchases to imports.

The PTI election manifesto had promised for agricultural uplift a number of measures that it either could not initiate or has so far implemented only partially with their results awaited. Some of them were:

• “We will expand existing and create new warehouses along with a crop grading system in key locations across Pakistan under public-private partnership.” Nothing concrete has been done to fulfil this promise across Pakistan.

• “We will deregulate the seed market apart from a few commercially important seeds.” Deregulation of the seed market had started before PTI came into power and the party has not been able to make any improvements in the deregulation process.

• “We will reduce import duty on farm machinery to increase productivity.” The PTI government has partially fulfilled this promise and its results in terms of visibly higher productivity are awaited.

• “We will incentivise farmers to conserve water, adopt regenerative agriculture, effectively control weeds and be more market-driven with their crop mix.” This promise, too, is yet to be fulfilled.

• “We will expand existing and create new markets for value addition, eg organic farming, small and medium enterprise level processing to provide cheaper inputs for local manufacturers (reduce import burdens), encourage high-value exports.” This was initiated back in General Musharraf days and PPP and PML-N governments had contributed to its progress. PTI is yet to prove what it has done in this regard.

• “We will encourage private banks to roll-out digital loans for quick access with easier terms of repayment and launch warehouse receipt financing.” Digital loaning and warehouse receipt financing, too, are old schemes of the State Bank of Pakistan. A year ago, during the PTI government, the central bank made some amendments in the rules governing these two areas with a particular focus on e-receipt financing. Agricultural loaning and loan collateral management under e-receipts of warehousing has somewhat improved. —MA

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, October 5th, 2020