Even After Missing The WNBA Playoffs, The Dallas Wings Are Ahead Of Schedule

After narrowly missing the 2020 WNBA playoffs, the Dallas Wings are disappointed. But they shouldn’t hang their heads. They began the season with low expectations and blew past them, showing the potential of their young core and a bright path ahead.

Dallas finished the season below .500 and just missed out on the eighth seed as a result of a tiebreaker that favored the Washington Mystics. In spite of that, the Wings discovered a small-ball identity that suited them well over the second half of the season. Powered by a core of mostly players on their first contracts, Dallas was a bright spot in the WNBA and has genuine momentum heading into the offseason.

Reuniting a Notre Dame star duo

The Wings lost a disastrous game to Seattle on Aug. 14 that prompted the change that would flip their fortunes. Marina Mabrey replaced Tyasha Harris in the starting lineup after that game, which helped Dallas take its next game as well as five of the last 12. The sharp-shooting guard provided the right mix of shooting and play-making to balance out the backcourt alongside Arike Ogunbowale. 

Different pairings’ statistical output shows the impact Mabrey had on the team. Dallas was outscored by just 3.3 points per 100 possessions with Mabrey on the floor compared to a minus-7.0 net rating with Harris playing. A 41.8 percent three-point shooter and capable offensive initiator, Mabrey was able to successfully run the offense and set up Ogunbowale. When the ball wasn’t in Mabrey’s hands, she could space the floor while Ogunbowale, former No. 1 pick Allisha Gray or rookie Satou Sabally went to work. 

Over the course of the last month of the season, Mabrey and Ogunbowale rediscovered the chemistry they had playing together at Notre Dame.

“As the point guard, I feel like it’s my job to put her in position to be successful,” Mabrey told me. “And it’s pretty easy to put Arike in position to be successful.”

Mabrey highlighted the transition game, where the Wings as a team ranked second in the league in offensive efficiency this season per Synergy Sports play type data, and how it can sometimes be as simple as giving the ball to Ogunbowale and getting out of the way. Dallas’ ninth-ranked half court offense was a different story, but Mabrey and Ogunbowale still worked together to create good shots for their teammates. 

“When it comes to running a set, getting into something, she always comes to give it to me,” Mabrey added. “We have a good chemistry with respect to knowing whose time it is.”

If the clock shows it’s Ogunbowale’s time, the best anyone can do is get out of the way. The 2019 Rookie of the Year runner-up was even better in her second season, improving her two-point efficiency while cutting down her turnovers even as her usage rate rose. Best of all, Dallas’ offense improved from 11th to sixth in the league. Though her overall efficiency still needs to improve, Ogunbowale showed she could be the primary scorer on a good offense — as a sophomore. 

See how Ogunbowale thwarts defenses, running another simple pick-and-roll with Sabally. Unable to tell whether Ogunbowale will lower her head and drive to the rim or pull up to shoot, the Mystics again make the mistake of dropping their post defender into the paint, and Ogunbowale makes them pay.

With that versatility in mind, defenses often devote too much attention at Ogunbowale, leaving other Wings open. Look at how the Mystics over-play Ogunbowale off a screen, leaving Gray wide open behind the arc.

An offense that in 2019 often devolved into one-on-one scoring from players who were in over their head playing that way, smart ball movement between two scoring guards was a big help for Dallas as their rebuild continued in 2020. The other big factor was the No. 2 overall pick.

A modern star in the making

In a preseason episode of Sue Bird’s Instagram Live show, the legendary Diana Taurasi asked Bird and Taurasi’s wife and former teammate, Penny Taylor, a simple question: “Who is going to be the best player in this draft class if you had to put a million dollars on it?” Bird went for the flashy option in Chennedy Carter of Texas A&M and the Atlanta Dream. Then Taurasi responded with the safest answer, Oregon and New York Liberty phenom Sabrina Ionescu. But when it was time for Taylor, a legendary Australian star and three-time WNBA champion turned Phoenix Mercury assistant coach, to name a rookie, she surprisingly picked Sabally. 

That perspective would be echoed throughout the offseason. Any time a conversation came up about the league’s young crop of stars, someone would inevitably put it out: Don’t forget about Sabally. After a rookie season in which she averaged 13.9 points, 7.8 rebounds and nearly a block and a steal per game, it’s unlikely anyone makes that mistake again.

If not for a couple injuries over the course of the season, Sabally may have taken home the Rookie of the Year trophy. And when she took over as the Wings’ starting center late in the year, the beginnings of a truly great offense started to take form. Whether she screened for Ogunbowale or Mabrey, the collective shot creation in that simple action made it difficult for defenses to stop. 

Take a look at how the Los Angeles Sparks take a beat too long to figure out they need to switch, and how Mabrey pulls up in Candace Parker’s face as soon as Parker starts to backpedal. That happens because Sabally has to be guarded behind the arc.

The Washington Mystics here try leaving Sabally open outside and pay the price.

When Sabally has to do more than simply nail a jumper, she may be even more dangerous. As a college forward, Sabally flashed a polished face-up game, and it has translated quickly to the pros, where she is still too quick and efficient with movement to be guarded with one defender.

Also against Washington, Sabally took advantage of All-WNBA candidate Myisha Hines-Allen, who should have an athletic advantage over Sabally but is out-maneuvered by the rookie, who makes the shot and draws a foul.

The Wings can rely on Sabally to function as a versatile anchor for their offense, but in order to fulfill their small ball potential, they will need Sabally to defend and rebound like a true post player. She was routinely taken advantage of on the offensive glass and was often a mess defending the rim against complex sets from opponents. When head coach Bryan Agler needed defense, he inserted bigger rookie Bella Alarie into the game.

As a start to what will be likely a long and fortuitous, Sabally dazzled. The best players in the league are scoring forwards who can speed past centers and overpower guards. Dallas now has in Sabally a player like that to partner with Ogunbowale, and most importantly, the two play off one another nicely already.

A roster that fits the coach’s identity

When Agler took over in Dallas, it was unclear how he would meld the Wings to his philosophies. In Los Angeles, where he won a championship, Agler had a big, physical lineup featuring matchup problems like Chelsea Gray and Candace Parker as well as a versatile defensive anchor in 2016 MVP Nneka Ogwumike. That type of size and skill was hard to find on Dallas’ roster, but in a couple short years, Agler and general manager Greg Bibb have found players who excel playing Agler’s preferred style. 

Despite injuries and many mistakes in 2020, the Wings looked like one of the most promising young teams in the WNBA.

“When you face adversity, it also creates opportunities,” Agler told reporters after Dallas finished its season with a narrow victory over New York. “We had some people really take advantage of opportunities they were given this year.

“I don’t know if we could have come out of here with better experience or with a better feeling, like we’ve accomplished something.”

Roster turnover began many months ago. The team moved on from veteran scoring forward Glory Johnson as well as inefficient youngsters Kaela Davis and Brooke McCarty-Williams in favor of role players like Mabrey and Katie Lou Samuelson. They drafted well after trading superstars Liz Cambage and Skylar Diggins-Smith in subsequent offseasons, adding not only Sabally but backup guard Harris and backup center Alarie from the 2020 class. That depth allowed them to survive losing startersIsabelle Harrison and Moriah Jefferson during the 2020 season as well as one healthy free agent signing who just didn’t pan out.

Dallas made a trade for Astou Ndour last offseason after Ndour’s breakout playoff performance for the Chicago Sky. But Ndour initially signed a restricted free agency offer sheet with the Atlanta Dream that was matched by the Sky. Chicago only traded her in order to salvage some value, which came in the form of Phoenix’s first-round pick in 2021. That left Ndour with neither the team she signed with nor the one she’d broken out with. Still, it was a surprise to see Ndour fall completely out of Agler’s rotation when the Wings were so aggressive in acquiring her over the winter. 

With or without Ndour, the Wings face a decision on whether to re-sign Gray after her rookie contract expires this offseason, and should have cap space to improve their team even more. Dallas also needs to determine how to proceed with expensive maximum contracts for Jefferson and Harrison, both of whom were inconsistent even before their injuries and are far older than the rest of the Wings’ core.

The majority of Dallas’ core, though, is quite young and inexpensive. They are already competing for a playoff spot now with mostly first- and second-year players, which bodes well for the future, and those cheap contracts mean they can spend in free agency to take the team over the top. After last season’s miserable output, the Wings looked far away from competency, but a star-making season from two core pieces and an accelerated overhaul from the coaching staff and front office has Dallas ahead of schedule.