CLEVELAND, Ohio - Save yourself some time sorting through the nation’s results trying to figure out the presidential election winner on Tuesday night; just check on what is happening in Ohio’s Ottawa County along the Lake Erie shore.
Ottawa is the bellwether county in the nation’s bellwether state, having voted for the winner of the presidential race in each of the last 14 elections - just like Ohio.
And, even in 1960, the last time Ohio went against the national trend by picking Richard Nixon over John Kennedy, Ottawa was a bellwether for Ohio in voting for Nixon as well.
More recently, Ottawa went for Republican George W. Bush twice, flipped to Democrat Barack Obama twice and then back to the GOP with Donald Trump in 2016.
Next closest in following presidential election patterns are two bordering counties, to the south in Sandusky County and to the west in Wood County, familiar as the home of Bowling Green State University.
Wood has voted with the winner in the last 10 elections, starting with Ronald Reagan’s defeat of Jimmy Carter in 1980. And Sandusky County’s results have matched the national election six straight times, beginning with Bill Clinton’s re-election in 1996.
In addition to flipping from Obama to Trump in 2016, Wood County was incredibly close to matching the statewide margin. Trump won Ohio by 8.13 percentage points, and he won Wood County by 8.05 points.
Next closest to the statewide vote in 2016 were Trumbull County (6.26-point margin for Trump), Erie (9.56) and Portage (9.95).
In 2012, it was Sandusky that ran closer to the state vote than any other county in Ohio, giving Obama a 4.64-point win over Mitt Romney, as Obama won statewide by 4.59 points.
Next closest in 2012 were Stark County (5.46 points in favor of Obama), Montgomery (6.22) and Ottawa (6.24). Wood County was not far off with a margin of 7.13 for Obama.
This is one in a series of stories focusing on election numbers that that will be published leading up to Tuesday. See others at this Ohio election numbers link.