Coronavirus: Bay Area Hospitals Lack Beds To Handle Likely Cases

BAY AREA, CA — Hospitals around the Bay Area will be overwhelmed with coronavirus patients in nearly all possible scenarios for infection rates, according to a ProPublica report released Tuesday using data from the Harvard Global Health Institute.

The report backs up the repeated calls by public health officials to "flatten the curve" — slowing the spread of the virus through social distancing in order to avoid a scenario where more Americans are infected by COVID-19 than can receive care at their local hospital.

But even under "moderate" infection levels, all of the Bay Area regions modeled by researchers would see an influx of patients far greater than their hospitals are currently equipped to handle, ProPublica found.

The study looked at hospital capacity in referral regions — cities and counties — across the U.S., using data from 2018. In the Bay Area, it included Alameda County, Contra Costa County, Napa, San Mateo County, San Jose, Santa Rosa and San Francisco. Researchers considered different infection levels — 20%, 40%, or 60% of the population — and stretched them over six, 12 and 18-month timelines.

A "moderate" infection level would mean 40% of American adults contracting COVID-19 over 12 months, according to the Harvard team. By contrast, in a worst-case scenario, 60% of the population could be infected within just six months.

Hospital capacities in each region

From ProPublica:

Even using researchers' "moderate" scenario, all of the Bay Area regions modeled will need to expand their hospital capacities to accommodate likely surges in coronavirus patients. Each region's intensive care units, where severe COVID-19 cases are treated, will also be overwhelmed unless they are expanded, the researchers found.

Alameda County would be overwhelmed in the "moderate" scenario, getting an influx of 108,000 patients and requiring 3,590 beds over one year. That's 5.4 times the region's current capacity.

In Contra Costa County, hospitals would receive about 70,200 coronavirus patients in the moderate scenario, requiring 2,340 beds over one year — or 3.5 times the region's current capacity.

In the Napa area, hospitals would receive 18,600 patients needing 620 beds over one year in the moderate scenario, which is 4.1 times the region's current capacity.

The San Francisco area would see an estimated 106,000 patients over a year in the moderate scenario, requiring 3,520 beds — 3.1 times its hospitals' current capacity.

The San Jose area would receive about 120,000 coronavirus patients over one year in the moderate scenario, needing 3,990 beds over one year, which is 4.4 times the region's current capacity.

Hospitals in San Mateo County would see 55,600 new coronavirus patients over one year in the moderate scenario, requiring 1,850 beds over that year. That's 4.1 times the region's current availability.

In Santa Rosa, Sonoma County, hospitals would receive about 34,000 coronavirus patients over one year, requiring 1,130 beds. That's 3.7 times the region's current capacity.

Even in researchers' best-case scenario, in which social distancing measures limit the infection rate to 20% of the population and spread the outbreak over 18 months, hospitals in the Bay Area and across the U.S. will still need to increase capacity in order to treat all those who get infected.

The state moved on Tuesday to do just that, as Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an emergency $500 million grant that will go, in part, toward adding new hospital beds. It was unclear how much the state's hospital capacity would be increased.

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Some regions are better-equipped than others, especially those in urban areas, which serve larger populations than rural hospitals.

"A serious epidemic in Grand Forks, North Dakota, will be much different than in Boston," Dr. David Blumenthal, president of the health care think tank The Commonwealth Fund, said in the ProPublica report.

In response to a request for comment from Patch, the state Department of Health referenced Gov. Gavin Newsom's remarks during a Sunday press conference, in which he said the state had 74,000 total hospital beds, with a surge capacity of 8,661. The state also has 7,587 ventilators, and expects to add another 900, Newsom said.

Across the country, hospitals have already started preparing for the influx of patients by canceling elective surgeries and trying to discharge patients sooner. But that may not be enough to get a handle on the pandemic unless hospitals also add more beds, according to the research.

ProPublica, a Patch Partner, is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power and other public concerns. Click here to see ProPublica’s full story and specifics about hospitals in your area.

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