Key COVID-19 Metric At 'Concerning' Level In 21 PA Counties

HARRISBURG, PA — Five key indicators on the status of the coronavirus pandemic in Pennsylvania are on the rise, and more than 20 counties are reporting concerning percent-positivity rates, new data shows.

Cases are up, the incidence rate of the virus has increased, and the testing positivity rate is on the rise. Plus, hospitalizations are up and the number of patients on ventilators has also increased.

The data, released as part of the state's Early Warning Monitoring System, compares six metrics over the past seven-day period with the previous seven-day period. The latest data was collected between Oct. 9-15.

The sixth metric used by the state to gauge the status of the pandemic — the percent of hospital emergency department visit due to COVID-like illness — dropped slightly.

The data

• Newly reported cases: Pennsylvania has seen a seven-day case increase of 8,723 cases. The previous seven-day increase was 7,398 cases, which means there was a 1,325-case increase across the state over the past week.
• Incidence rate per 100,000 residents: The metric is up from 57.8 to 68.1.
• Statewide percent-positivity rate: It jumped to 4.3 percent last week. That's up from 3.9 percent the week prior.
• Average daily COVID-19 hospitalizations: The average number of people hospitalized daily for COVID-19 reached 758, up from 640 the week before.
• Average daily COVID-19 patients on ventilators: The average number of COVID-19 patients on ventilators is 87, up from 75 the week before.
• Percent of hospital emergency department visits due to COVID-like illness: This metric decreased from 0.9 to 0.8.

Officials warn of fall resurgence

The update comes as officials are warning the fall resurgence of COVID-19 has already arrived in Pennsylvania.

Governor Tom Wolf and Secretary of Health Dr. Rachel Levine held a news conference Monday to address the status of the pandemic.

“The fall resurgence is here,” Gov. Wolf said. He noted now is the time to "double down on our efforts" to keep the prevent the spread of the virus. Levine has said there were no current plans to institute stay-at-home orders or other business closures.

Concerning percent-positivity rates

There are now 21 Pennsylvania counties with concerning percent-positivity rates — 5 percent or higher.

Those counties are: Huntingdon (9.9 percent), Westmoreland (8.9 percent), Bradford (8.3 percent), Lackawanna (8.2 percent), Lebanon (8.2 percent), Perry (8.2 percent), Elk (7.9 percent), Susquehanna (7.1 percent), Bedford (6.8 percent), Berks (6.5 percent), Lawrence (6.4 percent), Luzerne (6.0 percent), Schuylkill (5.9 percent), Dauphin (5.7 percent), Armstrong (5.6 percent), Centre (5.6 percent), Tioga (5.5 percent), Carbon (5.1 percent), Indiana (5.1 percent), Montour (5.0 percent), Blair (5.0 percent).

The World Health Organization has said positivity rates should be under 5 percent. A higher positivity rate can indicate that the state is only testing patients with the worst symptoms, and is not really finding many of the individuals who are spreading the virus, the WHO said.

Total cases in Pennsylvania reached 183,315 on Monday, after 1,269 new cases were reported. Of those, 80 percent of patients have recovered. On Saturday, Pennsylvania reported 1,857 new cases, which was the second-highest daily total since the onset of the pandemic.

There were 26 deaths reported Sunday and eight more were on Monday, bringing the statewide death total to 8,500.