Do you remember the late 90s? If so, you probably remember the Y2K bug, or “millennium bug,” that Time Magazine referred to on the cover -- amid scenes of hysteria and chaos -- of its January edition from 1999.
The Y2K bug stemmed from the formatting of calendar data in computer systems, so it was represented only by the last two digits, making the year 2000 indistinguishable from 1900. Resources were poured into fixing code after awareness spread. Thankfully, there were no widespread issues, perhaps due to the approximately $100 billion spent in the U.S. between 1995 and 2001 to keep the bug from causing major problems.
But this expense is likely to be minuscule compared to the technical overhaul that will result from the advancement of and access to quantum computing. My question: Where is the uproar? Why does there seem to be so little news coverage or concern? This should be a Y2K 2.0 scenario. But so far it isn’t.
How Does Quantum Computing Work?
Classical computing, which allows information to exist in one of two states (a 1 or a 0) called bits that use microprocessors comprised of transistors, and in order to add more computing power, more transistors must be added. Quantum computing, on the other hand, is a new form of computing that uses qubits instead of bits, which are capable of existing in multiple states at any given time. So if you consider bits to be akin to light switches, qubits can be considered to be more like dimmer switches that can be put into what is called a “superposition” state. Because of this, quantum computers are much faster than traditional computers.
But there is another side to this story. Quantum computing has been theoretically proven to break most of today’s encryption standards in near real time. These are based on mathematical puzzles that are intended to be difficult for traditional transistor-based processors. A traditional microprocessor will work on solving these puzzles one option at a time, which can take thousands of years to complete. However, when a quantum computer is tasked with solving these puzzles, it's able to try all possible answers at the same time, providing the right answer in near real time. This is because, unlike the computers we use today, which are based on electromagnetism physics, a quantum computer is based on quantum physics. So say goodbye to privacy as you know it -- the way you interact with your personal information is about to change forever.
Codebreaking Computers
It's been predicted that quantum computers will be available within 15 years, and they may come even sooner. We need to start preparing now. Even data that is currently protected with today's encryption can be scraped and stored to be decrypted. This means everything you store electronically -- social security numbers, banking information, health data -- all may be at the mercy of hackers.
Currently, quantum computers are still generating errors and don’t always provide the right answers. They are also difficult to access, but you can purchase time on IBM’s quantum computing cloud-based services or purchase a D-Wave quantum computer for about $15 million.
Quantum-Resistant Cryptography
The best answer to this problem today lies in quantum-resistant cryptography. While this is not a complete solution because it can still be defeated by quantum computers, it is designed to slow down the rate at which a quantum computer can break the encryption so it doesn’t happen in real time.
A New Enigma: The Dangers Of Falling Behind
Quantum computing and its implications are at our doorstep, and America might be falling behind. A Chinese team has already built a functioning quantum-encrypted communications system and has successfully completed a 30-minute encrypted conversation. This encryption cannot be broken mathematically because it is protected by the laws of physics.
During World War II, Germany used the Enigma machine, which had the capability of protecting communications with unbreakable codes. Only after the Enigma encryption was broken were the Allies were able to secure victory. Do we really want a rival government to hold this power again?
Terrorists, criminals and governments will all theoretically be able to communicate with no risk of detection due to this technology. According to Newsweek, only China has invested billions in quantum encryption to the point of making real-world use possible so far. Other research is being conducted in Delft, Netherlands, at the QuTech research center, which is working with Intel, Microsoft and other partners. D-Wave, a Canadian company based in Vancouver, B.C. is the only company selling quantum computers.
There is currently only one vulnerability using quantum encryption, and that is that two humans still have to send and receive messages on electronic devices, which may have weaknesses in their security.
Quantum AI
Not only will quantum computing enable us to process this incredible amount of data, but it will also enable machine learning or artificial intelligence to process data more effectively as well. This will enhance what is possible with AI by allowing it to perform many actions at once and teach itself to learn more effectively. Patterns in very large data sets can be identified more quickly, and even data from completely different data sets could be integrated and analyzed without human involvement. And while this hyper-intelligence can be incredibly useful, if it's put in the wrong hands, it can be incredibly dangerous, potentially augmenting cyberwarfare to levels we have never seen before.
But every coin has two sides, and quantum computing paired with artificial intelligence also promises big leaps forward in industries like health care, specifically in the realm of diagnostics and medical research.
So, What Now?
These changes are enormous and will have a huge impact on the way interact with and store our data. We rely heavily on computing and with that comes the need for security.
Where is the Y2K-grade planning and hysteria? A quantum world is coming, and we need to make sure that we aren’t the last to get there.
