Putting the entire Big Ten Conference on upset watch for 2020: College football Monday Madness

COLUMBUS, Ohio — While the Big Ten waits almost another month to join the college football season, big names in other conferences keep tiptoeing around landmines.

Oklahoma already suffered a misstep in a troubling home loss to Kansas State. Those Wildcats had already been upended by shorthanded Arkansas State. LSU, one year after seemingly being invincible, looked quite mortal at home against Mississippi State to open the season. Iowa State opened the season in the top 20, then couldn’t beat Louisiana at home.

The Big Ten need not worry about those non-conference letdowns in its eight-game league-only regular season. Yet the conditions for upsets may be more prevalent than ever in the most unpredictable college football season of our lifetimes.

The coronavirus pandemic has affected Big Ten rosters. It has affected game-day conditions by, at least for now, keeping fans out of Big Ten stadiums. Will anyone eventually be surprised when it affects a Big Ten lineup or coaching staff in a significant way?

Who knows what lies in store for 2020? Good luck making those now-legal (in some states) financial plays on the betting lines when a bad COVID-19 test or two the morning of a game could throw conventional wisdom out the window.

We can divide the Big Ten into two lists — those who need an upset to define their season or perhaps their program, and those who must avoid stepping on that landmine and destroying their potential.

The ones they need to get

Illinois

Lovie Smith’s Illini earned back some credibility with last season’s home upset of Wisconsin leading them back to their first bowl in five years. Illinois opens at Wisconsin, but that’s asking a bit much from a program that has not managed a Big Ten road victory of note since a 2010 trip to Penn State.

A winning season could potentially be within reach, though, if the Illini can make Minnesota’s visit to Champaign on Oct. 7 feel like the one the Badgers made last season.

Indiana

The Hoosiers made a blip on the national radar last season thanks to perhaps the nation’s emptiest eight-win season. But Indiana has to beat someone of consequence before it can be taken seriously.

Michigan still counts, and even better, the Hoosiers have lost 24 straight in the series since last their last triumph over the maize and blue in 1987. If Michael Penix is truly a Lethal Weapon, and there is Faith in Tom Allen’s defensive progress, perhaps the Wolverines will no longer be The Untouchables.

Maryland

The Terrapins scored 142 points in their first two games and 113 points in the nine remaining games in which they did not play Rutgers. Mike Locksley needs to find his quarterback, and Taulia Tagovailoa’s immediate eligibility gives Maryland a chance to build towards something this season.

A Thanksgiving weekend trip to Indiana seems like an opportunity — a road trip into a non-intimidating environment against an opponent that might look past Mike Locksley’s developing program.

Michigan State

Does it seem to anyone else like it was longer than four years ago that the Spartans were a top-10 program? Mel Tucker is not exactly building from ground zero here, as MSU is coming off a bowl win.

On the other hand, no one at the top of the East feels threatened by the Spartans right now. Quick fix: close the season by going to Penn State and doing what they’ve done on three of their last four trips to Beaver Stadium — win.

Nebraska

Man, there’s no program that more badly wants to be on the other half of this list. Even worse, there’s no reason to think the Cornhuskers are ready to topped one of the Big Ten powers they feel they were unfairly burdened with via the same schedule formula everyone else uses.

Scott Frost’s climb will need to come steadily, so the next step is reclaiming the middle of the West Division. Go to Iowa on Nov. 28 and win and Nebraska can do just that.

Northwestern

I almost put the Wildcats on the upset-wary half of this conversation. Northwestern has finished four of the past eight seasons in the AP Top 25 and played in the Big Ten championship game two seasons ago. After a step back to 3-9, though, it needs a boost.

The Wildcats actually caught a break by not drawing Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State for their East crossover. So when Wisconsin comes to Evanston on Nov. 21, another trip to Indianapolis may be within reach.

Purdue

The West is really intriguing this season, and Rondale Moore’s rescinded opt-out made it even more so. There may be no more electric player in the Big Ten, but the Boilermakers also have a pair of returning freshman All-Americans in defensive end George Karlaftis and receiver David Bell.

Back in 2018, Purdue made a cute little run into the West championship conversation in part by upsetting Ohio State. Then the Boilermakers went up to Minnesota and engaged in a frozen disaster. Win in Minneapolis on Nov. 21 and perhaps the promise of Jeff Brohm’s arrival, and his paycheck, will be realized.

Rutgers

I am optimistic Greg Schiano can eventually nudge Rutgers back toward something respectable in the Big Ten East. Something akin to what Indiana did last season is not unattainable down the line.

On the other hand, this team lost to Maryland 48-7, at home, last season. The first seven games should be about figuring out a way to win in College Park to close the season.

The ones they need to avoid

Iowa

If it seems like the Hawkeyes end up with 8.5 wins a year, well, they don’t. This isn’t the NHL. We deal in whole numbers in this realm. But the Hawkeyes have averaged 8.8 victories over the past seven years since last experiencing a losing season.

After a tumultuous offseason that likely damaged the program’s recruiting standing in the eyes of some prospects, Iowa cannot afford to start slipping down the weaker West. It should be favored at home against Michigan State and needs to maintain that separation.

Michigan

This remains one of the top 15 programs in college football, even if it doesn’t really feel like it. The Wolverines tend not to win games of consequence that could vault them back up to where their name and potential say they should be.

On the other hand they also take care of business against everyone else. The Wolverines should still be a road favorite for that game in Bloomington on Nov. 7. Can they keep the Hoosiers in their place?

Minnesota

The Golden Gophers are the newcomers to this party. Depending on the opt-in status of receiver Rashod Bateman they will go into the season more or less the co-favorites with Wisconsin to win the West championship.

Minnesota has essentially taken the second power spot in the West that everyone thought Nebraska was supposed to hold. So when the Gophers close the regular season in Lincoln, they need to kick out the ladder the Cornhuskers are trying to climb.

Ohio State

The Buckeyes will be favored a lot, and by a lot, in 2020. After a Week 2 trip to Penn State, the next five games might as well be branded the Justin Fields Heisman Trophy Resume-Building Tour.

Ohio State fans know better. They remember Iowa in 2018 and Purdue in 2019. Going on the road in the Big Ten West is, at least in their minds, fraught with hazard. As such, they will not rest easy until the Buckeye bus is stopping at the Beef House for victory rolls after a win at Illinois on Thanksgiving weekend.

Penn State

The voters have anointed the Nittany Lions a top 10 team again even without Micah Parsons. I think that’s fair, because James Franklin’s program has established itself in that tantalizing second tier of college football, so close yet so far away to playoff contention.

But you’d better believe an Indiana team hungry for respect is looking at its home season opener as perhaps its best chance to catch the Nittany Lions off guard. We’ve already seen weirder upsets than this.

Wisconsin

If Ohio State is the King of the North, the Badgers are, like, Dukes or Earls or something. They have power and title but to a limited degree. Last season when they slipped up against Illinois they all but assured themselves another season in the Buckeyes' shadow.

Who has the potential to cause such chaos this season? How about that Purdue offense described above, which still needs a real answer at quarterback but may have a receiver combo than can rival Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson at OSU. The Boilermakers will be out to go one step farther than the Illini when they visit Camp Randall on Nov. 7.

OH, NOKLAHOMA

Kansas State continued its nemesis status against Oklahoma with a 38-35 victory in Norman on Saturday. The Wildcats, playing without three defensive starters, scored 24 unanswered points to beat a top-five Sooners team for the second straight season.

A year ago, Oklahoma overcame that road setback to reach the College Football Playoff. LSU unceremoniously flattened the Sooners in the semifinals.

In truth, the Sooners' greatest nemesis remains their own flimsy defensive identity. For all the credit given Lincoln Riley for his ability to find and develop quarterbacks — and so far more have been found than developed from within — his inability to cobble together even a passable defense fastens a hard ceiling on Oklahoma’s potential.

Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler (7) passes over Kansas State linebacker Elijah Sullivan (0) in the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 26, 2020, in Norman, Okla. — Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler (7) passes over Kansas State linebacker Elijah Sullivan (0) in the second half of the Sooners' upset loss over the weekend.AP

Oklahoma’s total defense ranking of 38th in 2019 is the high water mark so far under Riley after finishing 67th and 114th in his first two seasons. The raw recruiting rankings might lead one to wonder why the defense has gained so little traction. The Sooners have finished 8th, 9th, 6th and twelfth under Riley per the 247 Sports composite.

Your Ohio State Twitter timeline probably filled up with Alex Grinch comments on Saturday. Certainly scheme and philosophy must be addressed. But looking further inside those recruiting results, the Sooners simply are not attracting elite defensive talent.

Riley landed five top-100 defensive players in his first two OU recruiting classes as head coach. That included two established starters (cornerback Brendan Radley-Hiles and defensive end Ronnie Perkins), two other contributors (cornerback Justin Broiles and Robert Barnes, a safety converted to linebacker). Defensive tackle Michael Thompson transferred out.

In the past two recruiting classes, however, Oklahoma’s top defensive prospects ranked 163rd and 124th. Absolutely, many programs would kill to land any players in the national top 150 — especially considering the Sooners are still landing elite offensive talent.

However, let’s compare OU’s record in 2017-20 recruiting — five top-100 defenders, none in the last two classes and no 5-stars — to other national powers:

• Alabama 25 (nine 5-star prospects)

• LSU 17 (four 5-stars)

• Ohio State: 16 (seven 5-stars)

• Georgia 15 (nine 5-stars)

• Clemson: 11 (six 5-stars)

• Texas A&M 11 (two 5-stars)

• Florida 7 (one 5-star) *all in the past two classes

• Oregon 8 (four 5-stars)

If you can’t make that list — and there may be other programs who merit mention — you are banking on an offense that simply pulverizes opponents and covers up defensive mediocrity. Oklahoma turned the ball over three times on Saturday. New quarterback Spencer Rattler had a much tougher time with K State than season-opening sacrificial lamb Missouri State.

Ohio State’s rank on this list is greatly enhanced by the 2017 class. But Ohio State also has Justin Fields and a defensive coaching staff that instills more confidence than Oklahoma’s.

It’s still early, and Oklahoma bounced back from a later loss to the Wildcats last season to still win the Big 12 and make the College Football Playoffs. So don’t count out the Sooners' chances of getting back there, where they have allowed 199 points in four semifinal losses.

Sights and sounds

• The single most terrifying moment of the weekend came courtesy of one-that-go-away former Ohio State target Bijan Robinson. The Texas running back attempted to hurdle a defender and instead ended up being flipped in mid-air before landing on his head. Robinson, somehow, walked away from the play.

The freshman’s frightening moment briefly took the focus off of the terrifying state of defense in the Big 12. Texas needed overtime to hold off Texas Tech 63-56.

• When Notre Dame had to postpone last Saturday’s scheduled game against Wake Forest, some asked aloud whether the Big Ten was paying attention.

The better example of what to expect might be Virginia Tech, which played without 23 players and four coaches — including its defensive coordinator. The Hokies were finally playing their season opener after their Sept. 19 game against Virginia was postponed due to an abundance of COVID-19 cases within the VT program.

The Hokies still beat N.C. State 45-24 without that significant chunk of their roster. The Big Ten believes its daily rapid testing protocols will help it avoid such outbreaks. It still may not protect every team from waking up on game day and finding out everyone may not be present and accounted for at kickoff.

According to The Roanoke Times, Virginia Tech used its scrimmages to practice for scenarios like the one they were presented with Saturday. That accounted for the totality of first-year defensive backs coach Ryan Smith’s play-calling experience before he was thrust into the role on Saturday.

One wonders if Ohio State and other Big Ten programs were making the same contingency plans — or if they will do so now.

• Last week in this space I picked the Mississippi State-LSU opener as my Game of the Week. The Bulldogs' 44-34 victory more or less lived up to the billing.

What can MSU possibly do for an encore? Regardless of LSU’s inevitable regression, teams don’t go on the road in the SEC and sling it around for 623 yards and five touchdowns like K.J. Costello just did. Could the Stanford transfer threaten all of those records Joe Burrow set only one year ago?

I hope so. New coach Mike Leach’s brand of wiseass doesn’t work for everyone. His brand of football, though, may have enough firepower to shake up the traditional powers in the SEC West.

Poll positions

I’m not going to spend a lot of time droning on about how 21 AP Top 25 voters had Ohio State No. 1 on their preseason ballot but only four did so when the Buckeyes were eligible again for this week’s poll. This year is a mess and until the number of games played even out we’ll have to adjust to the poll making less sense than usual week-to-week.

What I don’t understand, though, are the multiple voters who completely left off Big Ten teams and anyone else who had not played a game. Rather, I don’t understand anyone who did so without also taking the same stance a week earlier, when SEC teams were all over the poll despite not opening their season until this past weekend.

Frankly, this wasn’t that hard. Not that many games had been played so as to render our preseason ballots meaningless. Are there some voters who thought they could accurately compare Ohio State and Notre Dame in August, but cannot do so now because the Irish have played Duke and South Florida and OSU has played no one?

Game of the Week

Auburn at Georgia, 7:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN

The Tigers, No. 6 on my AP ballot, pulled away late for a 29-13 victory over Kentucky. Auburn had the defense to be more than a 9-4 afterthought in 2019. Bo Nix threw for a clean 233 yards and three touchdowns against the Wildcats, but he’s also working behind a completely new offensive line.

However, Auburn might also be catching Georgia at the right time. For a while Saturday it appeared the Bulldogs might be the next highly ranked team to barf away their playoff hopes on opening day. Did former walk-on Stetson Bennett bring some clarity to the quarterback question with his performance in relief?

That No. 4 spot in the playoffs — and perhaps only that spot — sure seems up for grabs. Here’s a chance for two contenders to create some separation, but only if they improve on their season-opening efforts.

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