Tesla rival Rivian overtakes Volkswagen as value tops $140bn

Rivian electric vehicle Tesla IPO
Rivian's shares have more than doubled since its stock market float last week Credit:  Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

Electric vehicle startup Rivian has surged past Volkswagen to become the world’s third most valuable car manufacturer.

The Tesla rival has seen its shares more than double since its stock market debut last week. A 10pc rise in sales on Tuesday pushed its market capitalisation to $143.5bn (£107bn).

This means Rivian is now more valuable than German car giant Volkswagen and ranks in third place globally, behind only Tesla and Toyato. It’s also by far the biggest US company with no sales.

    Wrapping up

    SSE 'considers sale' of stake in power network division

    SSE is said to be mulling the sale of a stake in its electricity network assets as it tries to fend off pressure from activist investor Elliott Investment Manager.

    The energy giant is also considering a move to increase capital expenditures in its renewables business, Bloomberg report.

    The plans could be unveiled as part of a strategy update due on Wednesday.

    Peloton jumps on $1bn share buyback

    Credit:  Shannon Stapleton

    Peloton has jumped as much as 15pc after it announced plans to buy back $1bn (£744m) in shares, helping to assuage investor jitters after a grim forecast earlier this month.

    The fitness group had slumped 45pc after slashing its revenue forecast by up to $1bn and revising down subscriber growth estimates amid a post-pandemic slump.

    But shares rose as high as $54.45 on Tuesday, marking the biggest intraday gains since March. The share buyback is Peloton's first since it went public in 2019.

    Activision tumbles on report boss knew about misconduct

    Activision Blizzard makes video games including Call of Duty Credit: AP Photo/Activision

    Shares in Activision Blizzard tumbled 5.6pc this afternoon following reports its chief executive was aware of sexual misconduct claims at the company for years and had himself been accused of mistreatment.

    A Wall Street Journal report outlines allegations of rape, adding that boss Bobby Kotick had been informed but failed to report them to the board. It also cites settlements where Mr Kotick himself was accused of misconduct by several women.

    The video game group, which makes titles such as Call of Duty, has lost about a quarter of its value since a California government agency sued the company for sexual harassment and discrimination in July. Mr Kotick is being investigated by regulators.

    A spokeswoman for Activision told the WSJ: “Kotick would not have been informed of every report of misconduct at every Activision Blizzard company, nor would he reasonably be expected to have been updated on all personnel issues.” 

    FTSE 100 closes lower

    The FTSE 100 has ended the day in the red after being dragged down by AstraZeneca and consumer goods groups.

    The blue-chip index fell 0.3pc to 7,326 points, with pharmaceutical firms Astra and GlaxoSmithKline dropping 4.1pc and 1.9pc respectively.

    British American Tobacco, Reckitt Benckiser and Unilever, which all make significant chunks of money in the US, also dragged the index lower after the pound gained ground.

    Vodafone was the biggest riser, gaining 4.8pc after it reported strong profit growth in the first half.

    The domestically-focused FTSE 250 fell 0.4pc despite data showing the labour market withstood the end of the furlough scheme.

    Premier League chairman poised to resign

    Credit: Newcastle United via Getty Images

    The chairman of the Premier League is said to be on the brink of handing in his resignation following a backlash from clubs over the handling of Newcastle United's Saudi-led takeover.

    Sky News reports that Gary Hoffman, who took up the role just 18 months ago, could announce his departure as soon as this week after coming under increasing pressure to step aside.

    It follows weeks of turbulence at the top-flight league over its decision to approve the £305m takeover of Newcastle by a consortium led by Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund.

    A string of clubs have complained that they were not closely informed about the sale process, while some have argued that the deal should have been blocked altogether because of the Saudi regime's poor record on human rights.

    Mr Hoffman, a former Barclays executive who also chairs Monzo, became Premier League chairman in June 2020. Since then he's been faced with a raft of challenges, including the pandemic, an effort to slim down the league to 19 clubs and the disastrous European Super League saga.

    Turkey's troubled lira tumbles lower

    The Turkish lira suffered one of its biggest falls of the year on Tuesday and hit fresh record lows as its troubles show no signs of abating.

    The lira fell by nearly 4pc to 10.36 to the dollar before clawing back some of its losses ahead of a meeting on Thursday at which the central bank is expected to lower interest rates for the third successive month.

    Turkey's central bank – ostensibly independent – has bowed to repeated pressure from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to lower rates to help stimulate growth.

    The move has fuelled rapid economic expansion, but also pushed inflation to almost 20pc and caused the lira to lose more than a quarter of its value against the dollar this year.

    Mr Kipling targets exceedingly large US market

    Credit:  REUTERS/Phil Noble/Illustration/File Photo

    Mr Kipling will start selling its cherry bakewells and cake slices in the US as it looks to win over American cake lovers.

    Parent company Premier Foods, which also owns brands including Ambrosia and Bisto, said it will trial the move into the US and expand cake sales in Canada following a successful trial.

    But bosses also warned that British customers should expect price increases as inflation takes a bite out of the company's profit margins.

    Chief executive Alex Whitehouse said: 

    We're seeing import cost inflation across the board on a wide range of ingredients. The last resort for us is to put through price increases but, inevitably, that is where we're going to end up but we're not sharing what we're likely to pass on to our customers at this point.

    Walmart lifts forecasts despite supply pressures

    Credit: NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP via Getty Images

    In further signs of retail success from the US this afternoon, Walmart has ramped up its forecasts for sales and profits for the crucial Christmas trading period.

    The retail behemoth is expecting a boost from surging demand for toys and clothes over the festive period, even as supply chain troubles hit its margins in the third quarter.

    Walmart forecast like-for-like sales in the US to be more than 6pc higher for the full year, up from its previous forecast of between 5pc and 6pc. Adjusted profit is expected to be around $6.40 per share up from a previous range of $6.20 to $6.35.

    Walmart said that it had hired over 200,000 new store and supply chain workers to tackle the holiday rush.

    Chief executive Doug McMillon added: "We have the people, the products, and the prices to deliver a great holiday season for our customers and members."

    LV blasts Royal London's 'grenade' takeover approach

    LV, which is in the throes of a controversial private equity takeover, has accused its rival Royal London of lobbing in a "hand grenade" to try to disrupt its agreed £530m sale.

    The 178-year-old mutual insurer, formerly known as Liverpool Victoria, rejected an approach by Royal London and accused it of trying to derail a deal with Bain Capital just a week before a key vote.

    LV said the proposal from Royal London would see the business split up and result in redundancies and possible closures among its three sites in Bournemouth, Exeter and Hitchin.

    Chief executive Mark Hartigan said he was "disappointed" with the timing of Royal London's move and urged members to back Bain's deal. He told PA the latest proposal was a "hand grenade to disrupt the process".

    LV revealed that Royal London's original bid was £540m – £10m higher than Bain's offer. But it still rebuffed the approach and said Bain's was the only formal offer on the table.

    Two more energy suppliers go bust

    Two more energy suppliers have joined the ever-expanding list of failures as soaring wholesale gas prices continue to wreak havoc.

    Dorset-based Neon Reef – which positioned itself as a green energy supplier – said it was ceasing to trade, leaving 30,000 domestic electricity customers high and dry.

    It comes just weeks after regulator Ofgem ordered Neon Reef and six other suppliers to pay £17.9m in outstanding renewables fees by the end of October of face losing their licences.

    Meanwhile Social Energy Supply, which specialised in social housing, has collapsed with 5,500 customers.

    Rival bidder swoops on Blue Prism

    The battle for control of British software company Blue Prism has taken a new twist with a US tech business preparing to trump a £1.1bn private equity offer just days before a vote on the deal.

    My colleague James Titcomb has the details:

    Aim-listed Blue Prism said SS&C, a financial technology company based in Connecticut, has approached Blue Prism about a £12 a share offer that would value it at £1.2bn.

    The company said it had postponed a shareholder vote on a previous £11.25-a-share offer from private equity group Vista, scheduled to be held on Friday, due to the new potential bid.

    The vote on Vista’s offer had been recommended by the board but was expected to be close, with activist investor Coast Capital leading a group of shareholders vocally opposing the sale.

    Vista had said it planned to merge Blue Prism with a rival company, Tibco, resulting in hundreds of job losses that were expected to be felt largely by the British company’s employees.

    Shares rose more than 10pc to £12.40, above the possible SS&C bid, suggesting investors are hoping that a further higher offer will come in.

    Blue Prism specialises in "robotic process automation", in which software takes care of repetitive clerical tasks.

    Read more on this story: US takeover of British tech firm Blue Prism in doubt

    Imperial Brands promises second year of shake-up

    Credit: REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo/File Photo

    Imperial Brands has vowed that 2022 will be another year of change as higher tobacco prices helped boost its profits.

    The maker of Davidoff, Gauloises and Golden Virginia saw its pre-tax profits jump to £3.2bn, up from £2.2bn last year, thanks largely to the £1.1bn sale of its premium cigar business. Stripping out the impact of the sale, underlying earnings were up 4.8pc.

    Chief executive Stefan Bomhard said it had been a year of "significant change", with more to come in 2021-22 as the group continues to refocus on so-called next generation alternatives to cigarettes.

    The group said 2022 "will be a year of further reorganisation and change as we strengthen our foundations for the future". Investors seem unimpressed, however, with shares dipping 1.5pc.

    Boost for US economy as retail sales pick up pace

    The American economy as been given a much-needed boost ahead of Christmas as new data showed retail sales surged in October.

    Retail sales rose 1.7pc last month, building on a 0.8pc increase in September and marking the third consecutive month of gains. Compared to last October, sales were up a huge 16.3pc.

    The upbeat data suggests rising inflation is yet to dampen spending. It could also reflect an earlier start to festive shopping as Americans try to avoid shortages.

    It adds to strong employment figures in October and an acceleration of service sector activity – all of which are hinting at an improved recovery for the US economy after growth slumped in the third quarter.

    The data helped push up US stocks, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq opening 0.5pc, 0.3pc and 0.2pc higher respectively.

    National security concerns spark investigation of Arm takeover

    Credit: REUTERS/Henry Nicholls

    Ministers have ordered the competition watchdog to launch an in-depth investigation into the $40bn (£30bn) sale of Cambridge technology company Arm to the US giant Nvidia,  my colleague James Titcomb writes. 

    Nadine Dorries, the Culture Secretary, told the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to begin a “phase 2” investigation on both competition and national security grounds.

    The move is the latest setback to the sale of one of Britain’s most successful technology companies, which has faced vocal opposition from parts of the tech industry.

    Ms Dorries said: “Arm has a unique place in the global technology supply chain and we must make sure the implications of this transaction are fully considered."

    The Culture Secretary has the power to block deals on national security grounds, while the CMA itself can stop them if they are regarded as a threat to competition.

    More details here

    German decision "could push Nord Stream 2 opening to late 2022"

    The decision by German regulators to pause the approval of Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline could push its opening back to the second half of next year, one analyst has predicted.

    Officials at the Bonn-based Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) said they were suspending the certification of the 760-mile link because the consortium behind it needed to form a company under EU law to secure an operating licence. 

    Trevor Sikorski, of Energy Aspects, told Reuters that this move would "push back expected timelines quite a bit" as it was not clear how long it would take to do what regulators are asking for. 

    He said the first flows through the pipeline now look very unlikely in the first half of 2022.

    Nord Stream 2 said it had been notified by the regulator about the certification decision.

    "We are not in a position to comment on the details of the procedure, its possible duration and impacts on the timing of the start of the pipeline operations," the company added.

    US drugs giant Pfizer inks deal to supply Covid pills to developing countries

    Pfizer has struck a licensing agreement to allow generic drug manufacturers to produce cheap versions of its new Covid-19 pill for developing countries.

    In a statement, the US company said it had inked the deal with the United Nations-backed Medicines Patent Pool to license the experimental pill once it is authorized by regulators.

    It will then be supplied by generic companies that can supply it to more than 90 countries that account for roughly 53pc of the world population, helping to bolster access to a new defence against the virus. 

    Pfizer said it won’t get any royalties from sales in many of the countries. 

    The company, which is also behind a successful Covid jab, found that its new pill reduced the risk of hospitalisation and death by 89pc in trials with high-risk patients. 

    It is applying for emergency authorization in the US and aims to do so in other countries soon.

    Charles Gore, executive director of the Medicines Patent Pool, said: "These are potentially life-saving drugs.

    "The sooner we can get it out there, the more people who won’t need to go to the hospital and won’t die.”

    Boeing wins Indian 737 Max order 

    Boeing's 737 Max

    Boeing has won an order for 72 of its 737 Max jets at the Dubai Airshow. Akasa Air, a Mumbai-based carrier, will start taking delivery of the planes from mid-2022.

    The deal is worth $9bn at list prices and lets Boeing make a dent an Indian market dominated by arch rival Airbus.

    Akasa chief executive, Vinay Dube, says: “India is one of the fastest-growing aviation markets in the world, with an unaparalleled potential. We are already witnessing a strong recovery in air travel, and we see decades of growth ahead of us.”

    Akasa plans to take on budget carriers including SpiceJet and market leader IndiGo.

    Hiring now: Vacancies by sector

    Who is hiring? This breakdown of vacancies by sector gives an idea of which industries are suffering the biggest shortages of workers:

    Who will be the next Fed chairman?

    Credit: REUTERS/Ann Saphir

    Wall Street is eagerly awaiting a decision from the White House on who the next chairman of the Federal Reserve will be.

    Joe Biden, the US President, is said to have interviewed two potential candidates, with a decision expected "imminently", according to Bloomberg.

    The contenders are incumbent Jerome Powell, pictured right, and Fed governor Lael Brainard, pictured left.

    Mr Powell, a Republican, was appointed by Donald Trump in 2018.

    His rival, Ms Brainard, is the high-flying economist who served under Barack Obama as his main emissary on international finance. 

    She is regarded by some Democrats as being a better fit than Mr Powell with the President's economic agenda, having previously been a leading proponent of tighter regulation in Wall Street.

    The choice of Fed chairman is seen as critical because a more dovish candidate may decide to wait longer before raising interest rates. 

    However, experts say it is not clear if there is much of a policy difference between the two on that subject.

    Stories in graphs: The Great Resignation and rising vacancies

    Following the release of labour market stats this morning, you can see the story of the "Great Resignation" and the surge in vacancies playing out in these graphs from our data team:

    Biden's bill bashes Bitcoin with new tax rules

    Cryptocurrencies are sliding today, with Bitcoin dropping below $60,000 and Ether at its lowest levels this month.

    Bitcoin, the largest digital token, dipped by more than 8pc to $58,661 and second-ranked Ether tumbled more than 10pc.

    Overall the value of the global crypto market has fallen by about 10pc to $2.7 trillion in the past 24 hours, according tracker CoinGecko.

    Analysts believe the drop is linked to new tax disclosure rules for owners of digital currencies, which are part of the mammoth $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill just signed into law by US President Joe Biden

    Bloomberg has this:

    Technical indicators had suggested the strong run of late across the notoriously volatile market was due for a pause.

    Some analysts also attributed the dip to new tax-reporting requirements for digital currencies that are part of the infrastructure bill, which President Joe Biden signed into law Monday.

    “We’ve seen the U.S. infrastructure bill get signed, which has initiated a selloff from traders who are concerned about regulation and taxation,” said Hayden Hughes, chief executive officer of Alpha Impact, a social-trading platform.

    Hughes also cited concerns about China continuing its regulatory crackdown. The country will study the option of levying punitive power prices for companies that are involved in cryptocurrency mining, National Development and Reform Commission spokeswoman Meng Wei said at a press conference.

    Bitcoin has more than doubled in value this year, while Ether is up about sixfold.

    The Great Resignation: How 2m handed in their notice over the summer

    More than two million people found a new job over the summer as the “Great Resignation” gathers pace and workers reassess their post-Covid options.

    Official figures show that almost one million moved from one job to another in the three months to September, my colleague Tim Wallace reports. 

    They were joined by another 589,000 people who were previously unemployed but found a job over the quarter, as well as more than 600,000 who were previously "inactive" - neither in work nor looking for work - and found employment.

    Read more here

    Explained: Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline

    Owned by Russian state gas company Gazprom, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline runs from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea.

    The 760-mile link has been built at a cost of €9.5bn (£8bn) and could potentially meet one third of Europe's gas needs, according to Gazprom. 

    But it has long been controversial because it will allow Russia to bypass Ukraine when sending gas to European markets.

    Critics, including the UK and the US, are also concerned that it risks increasing the Continent's reliance on Russian gas. 

    In recent weeks, Russia has been accused of withholding gas supplies from Europe to put pressure on Germany to approve the pipeline, which has been built but is awaiting final approval.  

    Gas is in short supply globally and gas prices in Britain and Europe have climbed as much as six-fold, pushing 19 UK household energy suppliers out of business since September and causing household bills to rise. 

    But Boris Johnson yesterday warned European leaders that they must choose between “mainlining” Russian gas and defending peace in Ukraine.

    British gas prices leap 10pc higher on Russian pipeline delay

    British wholesale gas prices have jumped 10pc higher this morning after the approval of Russia's new pipeline was delayed, my colleague Rachel Millard writes.

    The surge followed a decision by German regulators to temporarily suspend certification of the controversial Nord Stream 2 link.

    Wholesale gas prices in Britain leapt 10p to £2.25 per therm on news of the suspension this morning, tracking similar jumps in European markets. 

    Britain does not import much gas directly from Russia, but does import from Europe which gets about 40pc of its gas from Russia. 

    In a brief statement, regulators in Germany said they were suspending the certification after Nord Stream 2 decided to set up a subsidiary to run the Germany part of the pipeline, which now needed to be formed under German law. 

    “The Bundesnetzagentur [regulator] concluded that it would only be possible to certify an operator of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if that operator was organised in a legal form under German law,” they said. 

    “The subsidiary must then fulfil the requirements of an independent transmission operator as set out in the German Energy Industry Act.”

    Why has Germany suspended Nord Stream 2's approval?

    Vladimir Putin has been pressuring Germany to approve Nord Stream 2, which will allow Russia to bypass existing pipelines through Ukraine. 

    But today regulators in Berlin suspended the approvals process because the project does not meet German and EU laws requiring pipeline operators to be separately owned from energy suppliers. 

    Nord Stream has chosen to address this by setting up a new subsidiary company in Germany to operate the pipeline. 

    Justin Huggler has more on the story here

     

    Rishi takes a dig at the Guardian

    The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has been poking fun at the Guardian over one of the newspaper's front pages last year.

    He says it hasn't "aged well" in light of today's labour market figures...

    Wagamama owner shares surge  

    Shares in the the Restaurant Group have surged after the owner of casual dining chains including Wagamama and Chiquito raised its profit guidance following reporting better-than-expected sales.

    In a brief trading update, the company said it had "traded well" since September with like-for-like sales compared to 2019 outperforming the rest of the market.

    Restaurant Group now expects adjusted profit of between £73m to £79m.

    Shares rose by almost a fifth to 94p, but are still a long way off their 533p high of 2015. 

    Fortnite developer: Introduce a "universal" app store

    Smartphone users should be able to access a single, universal app store, regardless of whether their handsets are made by Apple or Google, a top gaming boss has said.

    Tim Sweeney, chief executive of Epic Games, the developed behind popular title Fortnite, renewed his attacks on the two tech giants as his firm's legal battle with them rumbled on.

    Speaking in Seoul he said:

    What the world really needs now is a single store that works with all platforms. Right now software ownership is fragmented between the iOS App Store, the Android Google Play marketplace, different stores on Xbox, PlayStation, and Nintendo Switch, and then Microsoft Store and the Mac App Store.

    Epic has been locked in a legal fight with Apple and Google for more than a year over how they handle payments.

    The developer forced a confrontation by releasing a version of Fortnite that included its own payment system, circumventing those run by the tech firms. 

    Its game was subsequently removed from both Apple's App Store and Google's Play Store for breaching their rules, prompting Sweeney’s company to sue the two operators. 

    Apple and Google say the fees they charge on purchases via their mobile marketplaces help provide security for users and a global audience for developers.

    Problems the UK does not have: a lack of jobs

    Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Gordon, tweets this following this morning's labour market stats:

    Party time at Diageo as drinks giant predicts double-digit sales growth

    Credit: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

    Drinks group Diageo has today said it expects organic net sales to grow by double digits in the first half of the year, as customers spend more on high-end brands.

    It prompted shares of the world's largest spirits maker to rise by as much as 3.4pc and hit a new record of 3,948 pence in morning trading.

    Issuing guidance ahead of its capital markets day, the Johnnie Walker whisky and Tanqueray gin maker said it expects organic net sales growth of at least 16pc in the first half of its 2022 financial year, ending June 30, and for organic operating profit growth to be ahead of sales growth.

    The pandemic has been a boon to the FTSE 100 firm as locked down consumers stocked up on alcohol and beers and traded up to more premium versions due to higher savings.

    Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said it was "party time" for the company:

    Currently helping Diageo is the fact that people have been eager to get out and socialise following lockdowns. We could have seen a big chunk of the nation decide they no longer wanted to congregate in crowded places, but so far, the signs have been very encouraging for the drinks sector.

    Pubs and bars are filling up again, and nightclubs are also getting back on their feet. This is providing momentum for Diageo’s earnings and what would help next is a removal of more travel restrictions, as that could pave the way for a recovery in duty-free spirits sales.

    Today in Telegraph Money

    As always, there's plenty going on in the world of money and my colleagues on the Telegraph's personal finance team have the latest.

    Here's a round-up of their top stories today:

    Pound up, FTSE down after unemployment falls

    The bigger-than-expected drop in unemployment this morning has sent the pound up against the dollar but the FTSE 100 is down.

    Traders have been spurred into action by the labour market stats because analysts believe they make an interest rate rise more likely.

    That would potentially make the UK a more attractive place for foreign investors to put their money, with sterling up 0.3pc to $1.35 this morning.

    However, at the same time, a stronger pound means British companies that make lots of money abroad will get less when they repatriate foreign earnings.

    This will be one factor pushing the Footsie - an index made up of big, multinational firms - 0.16pc lower this morning.

    Return of office workers lifts LandSec property values

    Credit: David Parry/PA Wire

    Elsewhere today, Land Securities, the UK’s biggest office and retail landlord, has reported an increase in the value of its portfolio for the first time since the Brexit vote six years ago. 

    The firm, which owns the Piccadilly Lights,  said its properties rose in value to £11bn in the six months to September 30, up from £10.8bn a year earlier.

    It came as the firm reported "steadily rising office utilisation" and said the further easing of international travel restrictions would help lift footfall in cities.

    In September, office occupancy peaked at 66pc of pre-pandemic levels, LandSec said. 

    Shares in the company are up by 2.5pc this morning, at 727.9p.  

    Labour stats "make interest rates rise more likely"

    There’s plenty of reaction to this morning’s labour market figures, with analysts seeming to agree that falling unemployment will put more pressure on the Bank of England to hike interest rates.

    Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown, says:

    Fears that a big chunk of furloughed staff would lose their positions led to the Bank of England holding off an interest rate rise at the last meeting. But the jobs queues are getting shorter, as the big fight for staff continues, with the unemployment rate coming in at 4.3pc, a notch lower than forecast.

    The governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey says he’s uneasy about rising inflation and the jobs figures are another indicator that there could be a fresh sugar rush of higher wages. 

    If the jam sandwich of sticky prices shows little sign of easing, it looks increasingly likely the Bank will raise rates.

    Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell, says:

    As we approach Christmas, it’s extremely positive news that unemployment is so low. It’s less good news for employers that vacancies remain at record highs, which shows that many businesses are still struggling to attract staff as we approach the busy festive period. 

    The big economic question is whether the jobs squeeze is going to worsen inflationary pressures, as employers try to outbid each other for workers. 

    These latest job figures will be digested by the powers that be on Threadneedle Street and will solidify the case for an interest rate rise. Given the shakiness of some of the current data, the Bank of England will probably wait until February to make its move though.

    Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, says:

    If Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey was serious when he said he was looking at UK labour market data for clues as to whether to raise rates, then today’s unemployment data is giving him fewer excuses not to act with a modest rate increase next month. This of course assumes you can believe anything he and the MPC say on the matter.

    His assertion yesterday that he feels uneasy about high levels of inflation won’t have been eased by today’s latest labour market data.

    What is more concerning is why this uncertainty over a rate rise even exists at all, and that is entirely down to the inability of the Bank of England to stick to a particular narrative. The Bank of England has been utterly woeful in recent years in guiding market expectations, unlike the Federal Reserve which generally has been much more consistent.

    Chancellor hails unemployment fall as "testament to furlough success"

    Credit: JEFF OVERS/BBC/AFP via Getty Images

    Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, has hailed the drop in unemployment this morning as the final proof that the Government's jobs-protecting furlough scheme did what it was intended to do. 

    The unprecedented scheme, which ran from March 2020 to September 2021, saw the state pay a share of the wages for private sector staff who otherwise were at risk of losing their jobs during the pandemic.  

    It came at a total cost of nearly £70bn to taxpayers. 

    But in the first month after the end of furlough - October - firms added 160,000 staff to their payrolls, according to the Office for National Statistics, suggesting few staff were laid off after exiting furlough. 

    Mr Sunak said:

    Today’s numbers are testament to the extraordinary success of the furlough scheme and welcome evidence that our Plan for Jobs has worked. 

    We know how vital keeping people in good jobs is, both for them and for our economy – which is why it’s fantastic to see the unemployment rate falling for 9 months in a row and record numbers of people moving into employment.

    Our Plan for Jobs is at the heart of our vision for a stronger economy for the British people, with schemes like Kickstart and Sector Based Work Academies continuing to create opportunities for people up and down the country.

    Labour stats: What does this mean for interest rates?

    Speaking to MPs yesterday, the Governor of the Bank of England once again suggested an interest rates rise could be on the cards as policymakers fret about rising inflation.

    But Andrew Bailey was also at pains to point out that what is happening in the labour market "really is the crucial part of it".

    This is because hiking interest rates too soon could hit struggling firms with extra costs, triggering a wave of redundancies. 

    "We have not seen enough of that story post-furlough scheme," Mr Bailey added.

    With this morning's figures, however, some of that fog is starting to lift - and it may increase expectations of a rate rise next month when the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meets.

    Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, points out that another data release is due in December, just before the MPS meets.

    However, Mr Hewson disagrees with Mr Bailey's contention that holding rates at record lows this month was a "close call":

    7-2 is not a close call, and one can’t help feeling that while [Mr Bailey] may have been in favour of a modest rate rise, it has been suggested he wasn’t able to convince enough members of the MPC to do the same and decided to go with the majority.

    The Great Resignation continues

    If you have moved jobs this year, you're far from alone. 

    That's the message from the Office for National Statistics this morning, which suggests the pandemic phenomenon dubbed "the Great Resignation" is borne out in figures.

    This has seen masses of employees reassess their working lives, hand in their notices and leave for pastures new.

    The ONS says total job-to-job moves totalled a record 979,000 from July to September, "largely driven by resignations rather than dismissals".

    The quarterly increase in employment was driven by a record high net flow from unemployment to employment. Total job-to-job moves also increased to a record high, largely driven by resignations rather than dismissals, during the July to September 2021 period.

    UK firms add 160,000 to payrolls

    Good morning. 

    British employers added 160,000 workers to their payrolls in October, official figures have revealed.

    It was the first month after the end of the Government's job-protecting furlough scheme.

    At the same time, the unemployment rate for July to September fell to 4.3pc, down by 0.5pc compared to a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said.

    5 things to start your day 

    1) Shell plan to quit Netherlands is 'vote of confidence' in UK  Firm says unified structure will help to 'accelerate switch to net zero'

    2) Andrew Bailey 'incredibly uneasy' at surging prices  Bank of England Governor expects inflationary pressures to be temporary depending on whether they feed into wages.

    3) Tesla deliveries hit by missing parts as shortages bite  Some customers find their vehicles lack phone charging stations and USB ports as crisis catches up with Elon Musk's electric car giant.

    4) AstraZeneca hits production milestone of 2bn Covid jab doses  British pharmaceutical giant is the first company in the West to hit the number as it prepares to begin profiting from its jab.

    5) Supply chain crisis threatens Britain's £1 trillion export target  Boris Johnson's goal of £1 trillion in exports by 2034 is "ambitious" given the pandemic's disruption, analysts warn.

    What happened overnight 

    In early trade, Hong Kong led gains with tech firms building on a recent advance as concerns about China's recent crackdown on the sector ease. Shanghai, Singapore, Seoul and Taipei also rose, though there were losses in Sydney, Wellington, Manila and Jakarta.

    Coming up today

    • Corporate: Imperial Brands, Land Securities Group (full-year results); Homeserve, Intermediate Capital Group, Premier Foods, Vodafone, Ninety One (interims)
    • Economics: Unemployment (UK), GDP (EU) 
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