Experts say U.S. measles outbreaks follow a predictable pattern that can be tracked with data. Yet there has been no national government effort to predict which areas are most at risk, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Independent researchers, not the government, released a February 2019 paper in The Lancet Infectious Diseases that predicted the year's 25 U.S. counties at highest risk for measles. The study's authors created the predictions by analyzing data for communities that have low vaccination rates and are located near airports that have frequent flights to countries with current measles outbreaks. (Measles no longer originates anywhere in the Americas; it must be acquired abroad where the disease is still endemic.)
Halfway through the year, 14 of the counties listed have had measles cases and at least 12 are adjacent to counties with the disease.
The dearth of national efforts to predict communities at risk has made it difficult to target measles prevention measures. The reason for this lack of predictions is unclear. The CDC says it has data on measles cases by county and ZIP code but does not publish it. FiveThirtyEight reached out to the CDC, which declined to comment on the issue.