REDDING — An outlook that includes words like drier, warmer, gusty winds from the north and east, thunderstorms and lightning aren’t what north state firefighters want to hear.
But that’s the crystal ball outlook being delivered for the next four months. It also means there’s a greater chance for “large” fires measuring more than 150 acres.
And true to form, up pops the Red Bank wildfire, west of Red Bluff, that as of Tuesday morning measured 8,800 acres — caused by lightning. Other fires reported just this past week include the Swedes Fire near Oroville in Butte County, which was at 400 acres on Tuesday; and the Walker Fire in Plumas County was reported Tuesday at 47,340 acres and only 12% contained.
Compare those acres as of Tuesday to the Nov. 8, 2018, Camp Fire, considered the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in California history, which caused at least 85 civilian fatalities, with one person still missing, injured others and covered 153,336 acres, almost 240 square miles, before it was contained. And that was in November 2018,
The County Fire, which swept through Guinda and the Capay Valley starting June 30, 2018, totaled 90,288 acres.
So, the potential for wildfire in Northern California is being considered “above normal” in significance through September and October in the north state, according to Predictive Services, which performs fire outlook forecasting for Cal Fire and other fire and forest agencies. It is affiliated with the Northern California Geographic Coordination Center.
That can mean Northern California could face more, large wildfires, be they human or nature-caused. It also is a signal for firefighting contracts to be lengthened if needed.
Predictive Services’ Redding office, fire meteorologist Brent Wachter says the outlook Northern California is all-around dry.
Those valley counties, such at Butte, Tehama, Shasta and others, are looking ahead to warmer and drier than average weather through the end of the year, resulting in “significant fire potential,” Wachter said.
In providing the outlook, Predictive Services looks at potential rainfall, moisture in vegetation, the outlook for storms, especially thunderstorms, and wind strength.
“There is above-normal large-fire potential for the fall,” he said.
The agency doesn’t give specific amounts or strengths, such as for rain or wind, but puts them at normal, below average or above-average levels.
Sizing up the fire potential isn’t anything new to the north valley, but the gauge and information give fire agencies a taste of what’s in store for their territories.
“They may need to extend firefighting contracts or keep an air tanker close by for longer,” Wachter said.
According to Predictive Services, the areas below 6,000 feet and west of the Cascade-Sierra crest in September and October are facing above-normal significant fire potential. After that, the areas face significant fire potential that is more close to normal.
“Typically the Sacramento Valley and foothills gets two to three large fires in September, and typically one in October,” Wachter said, describing “large” as at least 150 acres.
“We’re ready to burn right now,” said Assistant Chief John Messina of Cal Fire-Butte County, who said staffing levels will stay full until a certain amount of wetness is measured in vegetation.
While some rain is expected before the end of the year, it’s also predicted to be at less than normal. And it could accompany thunderstorms which can produce lightning, causing fires.
Adding to the severity of the forecast are above-average fuel crops that are brown and dry below the 6,000-foot level.
“There may be some weeds that still hold a little moisture,” Predictive Services’ Wachter said. Less moisture equals a hotter, more intense fire.
Last month, such a storm created two fires in the Forest Ranch area that fire personnel quickly put out.
“We don’t expect this to be a calm fall,” Wachter said.
“If very little to no rain falls in October, we could see above-normal (fire) potential extend into November at lower elevations west of the (Cascade-Sierra) crest,” the forecast stated.
Chico-based Western Weather Group marked 33.14 inches of rain for January through August 2019 for the area. In comparison, there were 13.38 inches over that period in 2018.
“Last year was unbelievably dry, not only in November but September and October. The dew point temperatures were in the single digits. In 30 years of forecasting, I have never seen it that dry,” said Western Weather Group meteorologist Marc Walsh said last week.
Walsh sees the coming weeks at normal wetness or slightly above average.
“Of course, with how dry September is, anything puts us above normal,” Walsh said. “All it takes is a little bit.”
One weather model that Western Weather Group is tracking offers a system coming in mid- to late-September that could drop as much as an inch.
“For the most part fall looks normal,” Walsh said.
Cal Fire-Butte County’s Messina notes this is the fourth year of above-average grass crop, which means there’s more that is ready to burn.
“That moisture makes (plants) grow rapidly and then the grass dries out. That’s a really receptive fuel bed and carries fire easily,” Messina said Thursday.
The additional rain means that some spots normally bare of vegetation will host new growth, Messina said.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Regional Climate Centers, Butte, Glenn and Tehama counties all got roughly 150 percent more precipitation than normal between January and May. All that rain left grasslands lush and green, but produced more fuel to burn.
“The annual fuel loading of the grass crop is well above normal for a fourth consecutive year,” Predictive Services reported.
Adding to the issue, but more in the north Sacramento Valley and Redding area was heavy winter and spring snow that downed trees and limbs in excess. Now they are fuel for wildfires.
However, in the mountain areas above 6,000 feet, that excess snow pack has kept soil moisture at better levels and lightning strikes won’t be as likely to lead to large fires.
“Traditionally fire season slows down by early November when there could be a rain system come in. Over the last few years, it’s been dry,” according to Cal Fire.
“We’re going to be watching November. If there’s no change, that forecast for above-normal potential for large fires could continue,” Wachter said.
