Arizona coronavirus update: 12,176 confirmed cases, 594 known deaths as of Wednesday

Arizona cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, now exceed 12,100, with 594 known deaths, according to numbers released on Wednesday by the Arizona Department of Health Services.

Arizona's total identified cases rose to 12,176 on Wednesday, according to the most recent state figures. That's an increase of 440 confirmed cases, or 3.75%, since Tuesday when the state reported 11,736 identified cases and 562 deaths.

The number of confirmed cases reported each day has risen steadily over the past week as more testing has taken place.

Deaths have also spiked over the past week, although many occurred in previous weeks and are just being added to the system now because of reporting lags and a new death certificate surveillance process. The number of new deaths reported each day represents the additional known deaths identified by the Health Department that day, but they are often not identified on the actual death date and could have occurred weeks prior.

According to the department's data, the date with the most deaths in a single day so far is April 20, with 22 deaths.

Maricopa County's confirmed cases exceed 6,300, according to state numbers.

The number of Arizona cases likely is higher than official numbers because of limits on supplies and available tests. The state announced April 23 that anyone who believes they could be infected can now get tested.

The Governor's Office and Health Department announced a "testing blitz" with the goal of testing 10,000 to 20,000 people each Saturday for three consecutive weekends. May 2 was the first day of the blitz, and the May 9 blitz took place at 37 test sites in nine counties. Arizona has significantly increased diagnostic testing over the past two weeks because of loosened testing requirements and the weekend blitzes.

The percentage of positive tests per week decreased from 10% three weeks ago to 5% last week, likely in part because a broader range of people are being tested rather than just the very sick.

The state's effort to add new hospital beds has affected the hospitalization data. While the percentage of beds available have been fairly stable over the past couple weeks, the raw numbers of people in the hospital due to COVID-19 have actually gone up.

Several different mathematical models project different outcomes and timelines for Arizona deaths and peak hospital use based on when social distancing is relaxed and various interpretations of current data.

The latest Arizona data

As of Wednesday morning, the state reported death totals from these counties: 281 in Maricopa, 144 in Pima, 58 in Coconino, 42 in Navajo, 26 in Mohave, 20 in Pinal, 12 in Apache, four in Yavapai and three in Yuma.

La Paz County officials reported two deaths and Gila officials reported one death as of Tuesday, although the state site listed the two counties and Cochise County as just having fewer than three deaths. Greenlee, Graham and Santa Cruz counties each reported no deaths.

Yuma County on Thursday reported a child died from COVID-19-related illness. The child had "multiple serious underlying medical conditions," Yuma County said in a news release. The county said it was the state's first pediatric death associated with COVID-19.

Of the statewide identified cases overall, 47% are men and 53% are women. But men made up a higher percentage of deaths, with 54% of the deaths men and 46% women as of Tuesday.

People 65 and older made up 475 of the 594 total deaths. While race/ethnicity is unknown for 20% of deaths, 43% of deaths were white, 17% were Native American and 14% were Hispanic or Latino.

Overall, Arizona has 169.4 cases and 8.26 deaths per 100,000 residents, according to state data.

The scope of the outbreak differs by county. Maricopa County has 145.2 cases and 6.43 deaths per 100,000 residents, and Pima has 159 cases and 13.78 deaths per 100,000 residents.

Coconino has 524.2 cases and 39.38 deaths per 100,000 residents, and Navajo has 974.1 cases and 37.23 deaths per 100,000 residents.

Of the 12,176 cases, 31% involve individuals with chronic medical conditions such as diabetes, cardiac disease, hypertension, chronic pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease or chronic liver disease. In addition, 42% of all cases are considered "high-risk," meaning the individual is either over 65 or has a chronic condition.

Of all confirmed cases, 7% are younger than 20, 38% are aged 20 to 44, 17% are aged 45 to 54, 15% are aged 55 to 64 and 22% are over 65. This aligns with the proportions of testing done for each age range.

The state Health Department website said both state and private laboratories have completed a total of 127,750 diagnostic tests for COVID-19, and 38,060 serology, or antibody, tests have been completed.

Most COVID-19 diagnostic tests come back negative, the state's dashboard shows, with 7.4% positive. For serology tests, 3.2% have come back positive. 

Maricopa County’s Department of Public Health provided more detailed information on its 6,112 cases Wednesday (the state reported its cases at 6,341):

• Confirmed cases increased by 101 from Tuesday to Wednesday. Deaths increased by 23 to 271.
• The cases are 47% men and 53% women. 
• 1,053 cases have been linked to residents of long-term care facilities. Of those, 225 people (21%) have been hospitalized and 191 people (18%) have died.
• 145 long-term care facilities have at least one positive case from a resident or staff. Of the 487 staff members at these facilities who have tested positive, 25 have been hospitalized and two have died.
• 341 people under age 19 have tested positive, making up 6% of positive cases.
• People aged 20 to 44 make up 38% of positive cases, followed by people 45 to 64 years old at 32% and people 65 or older at 24%.
• 14%, or 866 cases, have been hospitalized.
• 4%, or 236 cases, have been in the intensive care unit. The hospitalization and ICU numbers include any cases that were in the hospital or ICU at any time during their illness, the county says.
• The likelihood of being hospitalized or in the ICU increases with age. Of those aged 20-44, 172 (7%) were hospitalized and 36 (2%) were in the ICU. For people aged 45-64, 300 (15%) were hospitalized and 85 (4%) were in the ICU. Among those over age 65, there were 387 (26%) hospitalized and 114 (8%) in the ICU.
• Of the 271 deaths in Maricopa County, four were aged 20-44, 21 were aged 45-64 and 246 were over age 65.
• Of the 271 deaths, 91% were 65 or older, 68% had a chronic medical condition and 97% were high risk (meaning 65 or older or at least one chronic medical condition).

Cases rise in other counties

According to Wednesday's state update, Pima County reported 1,661 identified cases. Navajo County reported 1,099 cases, while Apache County reported 817, Coconino County reported 772, Pinal County reported 643, Yuma County reported 243, Yavapai County reported 227 and Mohave County reported 213.

Santa Cruz County reported 50 cases, Cochise County reported 43, La Paz County reported 25, Graham County reported 21, Gila County reported 19 and Greenlee County reported two, according to state numbers.

Santa Cruz, Cochise, Gila and Greenlee counties saw no increase in case numbers from Tuesday.

The Navajo Nation had 3,245 identified cases and 103 confirmed deaths as of Tuesday evening. Of the 3,245 cases, 1,854 are in counties in Arizona. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah.

The Navajo Nation has issued an emergency order requiring all individuals to wear masks in public and enforced its fifth 57-hour curfew this past weekend and nightly curfews during the week in efforts to help slow the spread.

Reach the reporter at Alison.Steinbach@arizonarepublic.com or at 602-444-4282. Follow her on Twitter @alisteinbach.

Support local journalism. Subscribe to azcentral.com today.