Skip to content

Next tropical depression could come from Atlantic system, with formation odds up to 90%

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel staff portrait in Orlando, Fla., Tuesday, July 19, 2022. (Willie J. Allen Jr./Orlando Sentinel)Author
PUBLISHED: | UPDATED:

While Florida had been on edge to see when and where Hurricane Humberto would form, more tropical waves caught the National Hurricane Center’s attention.

Most likely to form is system in the mid-Atlantic that looks like it might steer right of the Caribbean, while a less organized system that had stewed off the coast of Southwest Florida over the weekend was approaching the coast of Texas.

The Atlantic tropical wave is associated with a low pressure system halfway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, and has increased thunderstorm activity since the weekend.

“Satellite data also indicate that the low has become better defined, and environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the next couple of days while the system moves slowly northwestward to west-northwestward,” the NHC said.

As of Monday morning, forecasters put the chances it will form into a tropical depression at 60 percent in the next 48 hours and 90 percent in the next five days.

The NHC had been keeping track of three tropical waves at the offset of the weekend, but is now only keeping tabs on this one along with the system in the Gulf of Mexico. Two others that were closest to the Lesser Antilles had dissipated by Saturday.

The system in the Gulf of Mexico is a large area of showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper-level low and a weak surface trough that the NHC said has a low chance of becoming a tropical depression, just 10 percent in the next 48 hours.

“Little, if any, development of this system is expected before it moves inland along the northwestern Gulf coast tonight or Tuesday,” forecasters said. “Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall along portions of Texas coast later this week.”

Meanwhile, the closest system to Florida officially became Tropical Storm Humberto late Friday and grew into Hurricane Humberto by Sunday, but its track takes it away from the state toward Bermuda later this week.

As far as the other investigations, they could potentially form into the 10th and 11th tropical depressions of the season.

If they follow suit and also grow into tropical storms, they could take on the names Tropical Storm Imelda and Tropical Storm Jerry.