Arizona reports relatively lower 469 new COVID-19 cases and 2 new known deaths

Arizona reported a relatively lower 469 new COVID-19 cases and two new known deaths Wednesday as hospitalizations remained at similar levels to days prior.

Arizona's seven-day case rate per 100,000 people ranked 36th on Tuesday among all states and territories after ranking first and second for much of January, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's COVID Data Tracker.

The states with a lower case rate over the past seven days were Nebraska, South Dakota, Georgia, Maryland, Idaho, Vermont, Virginia, Missouri, Texas,  Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Kansas, Hawaii, Oklahoma, California and Alabama. Arizona ranked 51st among 60 states and territories on March 28, but its rank has fluctuated.  

The state's seven-day average for new reported COVID-19 cases was at 657 on Wednesday, compared with 710 two weeks ago. The average had reached as high as 9,800 in January, according to state data.

Arizona's seven-day death rate per 100,000 people ranked 33rd in the nation as of Tuesday, according to the CDC.

Percent positivity, which refers to the percent of COVID-19 diagnostic tests that are positive, varies somewhat based on how it's measured.

Last week, Arizona's percent positivity remained at 6% for the fourth week in a row, following six weeks at 5%, according to the state, which has a unique way of calculating percent positivity. Weekly percent positivity statewide peaked at 25% in December.

Johns Hopkins University calculates Arizona's seven-day moving average of percent positives at 3.5% as of Wednesday. It shows the state's percent positivity peaked at 24.2% in December.

A positivity rate of 5% or less is considered a good benchmark that the spread of the disease is under control.

The state's overall COVID-19 death and case rates since Jan. 21, 2020, still remain among the worst in the country.

The COVID-19 death rate in Arizona since the pandemic began is 239 deaths per 100,000 people as of Tuesday, according to the CDC, putting it sixth in the country in a state ranking that separates New York City from New York state. The U.S. average is 174 deaths per 100,000 people as of Tuesday, the CDC said.

New York City has the highest death rate, at 391 deaths per 100,000 people, followed by New Jersey, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Mississippi.

Arizona's case rate per 100,000 people since the pandemic began remained ranked sixth nationwide as of Tuesday.

Arizona's known COVID-19 death count rose to 17,430 after two new known deaths were reported Wednesday. 

The state surpassed 17,000 deaths on April 7, after passing 16,000 deaths on March 2, 15,000 deaths on Feb. 17, 14,000 deaths on Feb. 6 and 13,000 deaths on Jan. 29, just one week after it passed 12,000 and two weeks after 11,000 deaths. The state exceeded 10,000 known deaths on Jan. 9. Arizona's first known death from the disease occurred in mid-March 2020.

Many of the reported deaths occurred days or weeks prior because of reporting delays and death certificate matching.

A total of 870,624 COVID-19 cases have been identified across the state. March, April and May have seen relatively lower case reports. Sixty-two of the past 66 days' reported cases have been under 1,000. 

The Arizona data dashboard shows 86% of all ICU beds and 88% of all inpatient beds in the state were in use Tuesday, with 11% of ICU beds and 7% of non-ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients. Statewide, 252 ICU beds and 1,014 non-ICU beds were available. 

Hospitalizations for the disease generally dropped for about 13 weeks and recently appear to have plateaued somewhat. However, there was a slight uptick since April 25, when the total number of COVID-19 inpatients hospitalized statewide eclipsed 600 for the first time since March 31. Hospitalizations remained at more than 600 for 13 consecutive days through Friday, and then have stayed below 600 since Saturday.

The total number of patients hospitalized in Arizona for known or suspected COVID-19 cases was at 599 on Tuesday, up from 577 on Monday and 565 on Sunday, but still far below the record 5,082 inpatients on Jan. 11. The highest number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in a single day during the summer 2020 surge was 3,517 on July 13.

The number of patients with suspected or known COVID-19 in ICUs across Arizona was at 190 on Tuesday, up from 185 on Monday and far below the record high of 1,183 on Jan. 11. During the summer surge in mid-July, ICU beds in use for COVID-19 peaked at 970.

Arizonans with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 on ventilators tallied 81 on Tuesday, down from 86 on Monday and well below the record high 821 reached on Jan. 13. During the summer surge, July 16 was the peak day for ventilator use, with 687 patients.

Tuesday saw 1,001 patients in Arizona emergency rooms for COVID-19, well below the Dec. 29 single-day record of 2,341 positive or suspected COVID-19 patients seen in emergency departments across the state.

Arizona began its first COVID-19 vaccinations for health care workers, long-term care facilities and front-line first responders in mid-December. The state in early March shifted to a largely age-based rollout and in late March began allowing anyone 16 and older to start registering for appointments.

The state reported more than 3 million people in Arizona had received at least one vaccine dose as of Wednesday, with more than 2.5 million people fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Arizona has about 5.6 million adults age 18 and older.

What to know about Wednesday's numbers

Reported cases in Arizona: 870,624.

Cases since the outbreak began increased by 469 or 0.05%, from Tuesday's 870,155 identified cases. These daily cases are grouped by the date they are reported to the state health department, not by the date the tests were administered. 

Cases by county: 542,856 in Maricopa, 115,830 in Pima, 51,979 in Pinal, 37,156 in Yuma, 22,830 in Mohave, 18,937 in Yavapai, 17,872 in Coconino, 16,312 in Navajo, 11,984 in Cochise, 11,372 in Apache, 7,961 in Santa Cruz, 6,929 in Gila, 5,571 in Graham, 2,462 in La Paz and 573 in Greenlee, according to state numbers.

The rate of cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began is highest in Yuma County, followed by Apache, Santa Cruz, Graham and Navajo counties, per state data. The rate in Yuma County is 16,158 cases per 100,000 people. By comparison, the U.S. average rate since the pandemic began is 9,811 cases per 100,000 people as of Tuesday, according to the CDC.

The Navajo Nation reported 30,642 cases and 1,285 confirmed deaths in total as of Tuesday. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah.

The Arizona Department of Corrections reported 12,296 inmates had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Tuesday, including 2,242 in Tucson, 2,033 in Eyman, 2,014 in Yuma, 1,303 in Lewis and 1,163 in Douglas; 46,927 inmates statewide have been tested. A total of 2,768 prison staff members have self-reported testing positive, the department said. Fifty incarcerated people in Arizona have been confirmed to have died of COVID-19, with 10 additional deaths under investigation.

Race/ethnicity is unknown for 17% of all COVID-19 cases statewide, but 38% of positive cases have been diagnosed in white people, 30% Hispanic or Latino, 5% Native American, 3% Black and 1% Asian/Pacific Islander.

Of those who have tested positive in Arizona since the start of the pandemic, 16% were younger than 20, 44% were 20-44, 15% were 45-54, 12% were 55-64 and 13% were age 65 or older.

Laboratories had completed 4,325,629 diagnostic tests on unique individuals for COVID-19 as of Monday, 13.3% of which have come back positive. That number includes both PCR and antigen testing. The percentage of positive tests for the last full week was at 6% for the fourth week in a row, following six weeks at 5%. The state numbers leave out data from labs that do not report electronically.

The state health department includes probable cases as anyone with a positive antigen test, another type of test to determine current infection. Antigen tests (not related to antibody tests) use a nasal swab or another fluid sample to test for current infection. Results are typically produced within 15 minutes. 

A positive antigen test result is considered very accurate, but there's an increased chance of false-negative results, the Mayo Clinic says. Mayo Clinic officials say a doctor may recommend a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test to confirm a negative antigen test result. 

Arizona as of Tuesday had the sixth-highest overall case rate in the country since Jan. 21, 2020. Ahead of Arizona in cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began are North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee and Utah, according to the CDC.

Arizona's infection rate is 11,945 cases per 100,000 people, according to the CDC. The national average is 9,811 cases per 100,000 people, though the rates in states hard hit early in the pandemic may be an undercount because of a lack of available testing in March and April 2020.

Reported deaths in Arizona: 17,430

Deaths by county: 9,934 in Maricopa, 2,406 in Pima, 876 in Pinal, 834 in Yuma, 723 in Mohave, 535 in Navajo, 505 in Yavapai, 429 in Apache, 330 in Coconino, 283 in Cochise, 228 in Gila, 177 in Santa Cruz, 80 in La Paz, 80 in Graham and 10 in Greenlee. 

People age 65 and older make up 13,048 of the 17,430 deaths, or 75%. Following that, 15% of deaths were in the 55-64 age group, 6% were 45-54 and 4% were 20-44 years old.

While race/ethnicity was unknown for 6% of deaths, 50% of those who died were white, 28% were Hispanic or Latino, 8% were Native American, 3% were Black and 1% were Asian/Pacific Islander, the state data show.

The global death toll as of Wednesday morning was 3,320,036. The U.S. had the highest death count of any country in the world, at 582,867, followed by Brazil at 425,540 and India at 254,197, according to Johns Hopkins University. Arizona's death total of 17,430 deaths represents about 3% of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S.

Reach the reporter at Alison.Steinbach@arizonarepublic.com or at 602-444-4282. Follow her on Twitter @alisteinbach.

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