The Folly of Wine Prophecy

In December 2018, I committed the ultimate journalistic indulgence – prophesying the global trends likely to significantly affect the wine industry in 2019 and beyond.

This is, of course, an endeavor fraught with problems. For instance, according to several respected sources in 2018, the consumption of imported wine in China was predicted to rise by more than 7 percent in 2019. Instead, last year was characterized by an escalating trade war between the US and China, with a tit for tat imposition of tariffs and hardening rhetoric on China's allegedly unfair trading practices. Nations such as Australia benefited from the spat, but overall China's future as a major wine importer is looking uncertain indeed.

After years of excitement and hyperbole about the importance of this market, imports fell in both volume and value in the first six months of 2019. Optimistic predictions about China's continued health and buoyancy were resoundingly proven to be, to use a sophisticated expression, a load of old toss.

There was also much talk in 2018 of the "sparkling revolution", with suggestions that Prosecco's global popularity would wane, facing stronger competition from categories like crémant. I believed this was nonsense but, in the UK at least, there was evidence of a rising interest in sparkling alternatives and a diversification of the market in 2019.

Sales of crémant and Italy's posh Franciacorta are continuing to rise, while IWSR data indicates that consumers will increasingly pay Champagne prices for the non-French alternatives. "We are seeing growth for crémant in the UK, and as the only producer with crémant coming from all eight production regions in France, there is still significant potential, much more of our production being currently sold in the domestic market in France,” says Mark Kears, MD UK & Ireland at Les Grands Chais de France.

But, for Prosecco growers, there was an unprecedented dollop of bad news in 2019. Despite my confidence that "Prosecco will continue to prove itself to be very price-inelastic and stubbornly popular", sales fell in the UK market in 2019. This was attributed to the "Peak Prosecco" phenomenon and increasing competition from trendy alternatives and gin, the bartender's eternal pet. Whether Prosecco can recover its domineering swagger in 2020 remains to be seen, but my prediction concerning Prosecco's continued and robust health has been debunked.

I also called Brexit spectacularly wrong. I was convinced that 2019 would provide at least some measure of certainty, following our scheduled cessation from the EU and ratification of a withdrawal agreement. Instead, the UK's departure will now take place on January 31, two weeks away.

Yet as of today – January 18 – UK businesses have no idea what exact shape our future trading relationship will take. Many believe that the trade talks cannot be realistically concluded by the deadline of December 2020. It is still entirely plausible that the UK will  leave with a bang, shifting from frictionless trade to WTO rules. Brexit, unfortunately, will continue to dominate headlines and focus minds in 2020, despite the government's disingenuous mantra of "getting Brexit done".

Still, my wager regarding the decline of still wine consumption across Europe paid off, albeit it was hardly a difficult or controversial prediction to make. Consumers in France, yes France, are drinking less and less, in addition to their counterparts in Italy, the UK and now the US. Producers console themselves that consumers are "drinking less but better", a soundbite that will go down in history as the most overused cliché of the 21st Century. Yet there is evidence to back up such claims, as value sales of certain categories in the UK and US has risen.

But with decriminalization/legalization of cannabis spreading around the globe, coupled with health concerns and younger consumers embracing abstinence, still wine is unlikely to see a resurgence in the west anytime soon.

In 2018, there were also musings about this intransigent obsession with stripping the flavor out of Chardonnay. Unfortunately, this predilection towards making reductive, struck-match Chardonnay is alive and well in January 2020. It is an exquisite irony, partly due to global warming, that the fleshiest, ripest, most generous Chardonnay I sampled in 2019 emanated from Burgundy – as opposed to Margaret River, Tasmania or Hawke's Bay. 

Talk of 15 percent alcohol levels in Burgundy, the decimation of terroir and redrawing the wine map also continues apace. Tragically, making predictions about climate change and global warming's devastating effects on agriculture is the safest bet in the business. I opined in 2018 that winemakers would "circumvent" global warming by planting "forbidden" grape varieties, and searching for cooler terroirs. "Hybrid varieties are also likely to become more popular in Europe, while higher altitudes will be considered the Nirvana of good viticulture in the years to come," I suggested.

All easy predictions to make – in March 2019, the French government authorized the introduction of new hybrid grape varieties into the country's viticultural landscape. Four varieties – Floreal, Vidoc, Voltis and Artaban – were developed by the French National Institute for Agronomic Research (Inra). They are now found across the Languedoc, favored because of their genetically programmed resistance to downy and powdery mildew.

Journalists were also delighted to jump on the 2019 news that the Bordeaux producer syndicate had authorized seven new wine grapes for Bordeaux AOC and Bordeaux Supérieur wines. The seven newly approved Bordeaux grapes include Portugal's Touriga Nacional and Alvarinho, Marselan and Petit Manseng. The timing was ideal – France roasted in a late June heatwave and the Languedoc suffered greatly; more than 20,000 hectares of vines in the region were damaged by the intense heat. It is inevitable, sadly, that 2020 will bring more to come.

Finally, there was a departing endnote about the rise of alternative formats –  such as pouches and cans – and the importance of Millennial and Gen Z consumers in driving this trend.

At first glance, this was another effortless prediction to make, with plenty of evidence in 2019 that aluminum cans were becoming increasingly popular. In the US, there were numerous brand launches and growth of 43 percent over the previous year.

"We launched canned wine with Whole Foods across all their stores in the US in 2018 and this triggered our NPD team to consider other markets. It was a big success in the US and they tend to lead trends in wine. We believe it'll really catch on in the UK," says Mirabeau founder Stephen Cronk.

In addition, British firm Greencroft Bottling invested in a large scale canning line, which started production in November 2019.

"Through our new canning line, we're providing our customers with a packaging option which not only ticks boxes for being on trend, but is both environmentally ethical and practical within modern lifestyles," says Trevor Lloyd, director of planning and procurement at Greencroft Bottling.

"We will initially focus on 200ml and 250ml slimline can formats. The line will initially be installed in our present Greencroft Bottling facility and moved to our new Greencroft Two development once building work is completed in 2020."

And yet, and yet. Talk of exponential growth in the canned format in 2020 may be premature. The success of this format will depend as much on the market in question as the end product. The US is clearly ahead of the curve in this regard. But will the can format become a fixture, rather than a curiosity, in the US and other markets? In the UK wine in cans are not yet broadly distributed,  while only 1 percent of British regular wine drinkers have purchased wine in a can in the past six months. Moreover, there is some consumer rejection of wine in a can, due to associations of cans with non-wine drinks and a perception of lower quality.

And, while cans are convenient for picnics, glass is relatively inexpensive to produce, has a pretty good carbon footprint and is fully recyclable. It deserves to maintain pole position.

All of which brings me to a singular prediction for 2020 – I cannot imagine cans ever accounting for more than 5 percent of total wine sales in any market. The 75cl bottle has a lot going for it and will remain the vessel of choice for most consumers. It's also hardly restaurant friendly; small format serves in the on-trade are (ultimately) delivered to the customer by the glass, diminishing the need for smaller formats.

But then I've been wrong before.