A British economic research firm is starting to see rays of hope in the U.S.’s war against the coronavirus.
Pantheon Macroeconomics says the growth of confirmed cases nationwide is slowing since March 26 to less than 15% a day. Cases grew by nearly 80% on March 18.
“It’s too early to call a definitive turning point, but a sustained downturn in the proportion of positive tests, as test numbers increase dramatically— daily tests have risen three-fold over the past two
weeks—would be a very favorable development,” says Pantheon’s Saturday update, a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Times.
“In early stages of epidemics, more testing means faster growth in confirmed cases; that changes when the underlying rate of spread of the disease is reduced by social distancing and other controls,” chief economist Ian Shepherdson told clients.
The number of Americans being tested rose to 140,000 in one day.
Pantheon Macroeconomics estimates that in New York City, the American pandemic epicenter, the number of new cases daily peaked a week ago and “appears to now to be failing sharply.”
The U.S. today stands at over 300,000 confirmed infections as it has ramped up testing to more than one million people. The death toll is over 8,000, according to Johns Hopkins University, up from 3,170 on March 31.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations at the University of Washington has produced coronavirus models relied by President Trump and his scientific and bureaucratic policymakers.
The institute projects 100,000 to 200,000 deaths if social distancing is enforced nationwide.
One of its models projected the U.S would need 150,000 hospital beds by today for COVID-19 patients.
According to the COVID Tracking Project, about 32,000 have been hospitalized, far short of IHME’s prediction.
• Rowan Scarborough can be reached at rscarborough@washingtontimes.com.
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