NFL Rookies Who Are Set to Break out Down the Stretch in 2020

While it might not be fair to refer to the 2020 NFL season as the year of the rookie, first-year players have featured among the biggest storylines of the first half. Quarterbacks Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert have lit up stat sheets, while wideout Justin Jefferson and running back James Robinson have come through for their squads.

These skill position stars aren't alone, either. Defenders Chase Young and Jeff Okudah have made early impacts, as have offensive linemen Jedrick Wills Jr. and Tristan Wirfs.

What's really impressive about the rookie class is that we're only halfway through the season. Many more first-year players are likely to emerge as stars down the stretch. Which have the best chance to do so? That's what we examined.

We'll look at eight first-year players who have yet to break out but who could do so over the final eight weeks. We'll examine what makes them breakout candidates—including opportunity, supporting talent, projected role and schedule—and what should be expected of them.

Detroit Lions running back D'Andre Swift had his first big game in Week 6 when he rushed for 116 yards and two touchdowns against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Swift is also averaging more than three receptions per game, but he hasn't broken out like James Robinson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

This is largely due to Swift's presence in a timeshare with ageless wonder Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson. Unlike Robinson and Edwards-Helaire, Swift hasn't gotten the opportunity to be a workhorse.

That could change if the 3-5 Lions cannot stay in the wild-card race. The 35-year-old Peterson is not a long-term piece of the puzzle, and as The Athletic's Chris Burke pointed out Monday, Detroit needs to see what kind of building block Swift can be:

"I even get them wanting to keep Adrian Peterson involved, because of how he helps the play-action game. Swift, though, is a 1,000-yard back waiting to happen. His ability to cut at full speed, moving forward, is on a rare level. He does need to start working south to north a little more quickly on those stretch plays, but the offense is better—easy as that—when he's in the backfield."

Expect Swift to continue to catch multiple passes per game while getting a bigger share of the rushing workload. He has just 250 rushing yards through eight games and could double that in the second half of the season.

While the Detroit offensive line leaves something to be desired—it ranks 26th in adjusted line yards by Football Outsiders—that hasn't prevented Swift from averaging 4.6 yards per carry, the highest figure among Lions running backs. As long as Matthew Stafford is behind center to keep defenses honest, Swift should thrive.

He is averaging 25.9 receiving yards per game, so he could top 700 scrimmage yards in the final eight weeks.

Rookie wideouts Justin Jefferson and Chase Claypool have emerged as dangerous weapons, and several more are likely to break out over the second half. The first one we'll examine is Philadelphia Eagles first-round pick Jalen Reagor.

Reagor has been productive when he's been on the field. He caught five passes for 96 yards in his first two games and had three catches for 16 yards and a score in Week 8. But a thumb injury has limited Reagor to just those three contests, so it's safe to say the best is yet to come for the TCU product.

The one concern for Reagor is the pending return of Alshon Jeffery. Jeffery has been a full participant in practice this week and should make his season debut against the New York Giants on Sunday. With Jeffery back in the fold and Travis Fulgham emerging as Carson Wentz's top target, Reagor is unlikely to become the focal point Jefferson is for the Minnesota Vikings.

However, Reagor has big-play ability, and he should have his fair share of breakout moments down the stretch.

The Eagles are coming off a bye week's worth of preparation, so those big moments could come sooner than later. Even if he only catches a handful of passes each game, Reagor should average about 40 yards, as he did at the start of the season.

He could approach 500 receiving yards over the last eight weeks and emerge as Philadelphia's top deep threat.

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk had his first 100-scrimmage-yard game in Week 3, but he hadn't become a consistent option until recently. Aiyuk caught 14 passes for 206 yards and a touchdown in Weeks 7 and 8 before being held out of Week 9 because he was on the reserve/COVID-19 list.

Moving forward, Aiyuk should be a centerpiece of the passing attack, especially because Deebo Samuel has a hamstring injury. Aiyuk could have the numbers in the second half that Justin Jefferson has had in the first—the Vikings rookie has caught 34 passes for 627 yards and three touchdowns.

"I'm expecting big things from him, to be honest with you," 49ers legend Jerry Rice said, per ESPN's Nick Wagoner. "Because I think he has everything, where he's got the route running, where he's got the hands, that awareness on the football field, and he's one of those guys that he knows he's a playmaker and that he could put points on the board at any time."

With Samuel injured and tight end George Kittle (foot) out for the season, Aiyuk is the biggest threat San Francisco has. Expect coach Kyle Shanahan to lean heavily on him and for Aiyuk to take full advantage. While it's worth noting the Niners are leaning on backup quarterback Nick Mullens, it's also worth noting Mullens accounted for 60 of Aiyuk's 91 receiving yards—and his touchdown—in Week 8.

Aiyuk can record 600-plus scrimmage yards and a handful of touchdowns over the final seven games.

Denver Broncos first-round pick Jerry Jeudy had his breakout game in Week 9. He caught seven passes for 125 yards and a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons, and the big game could be the springboard Denver has been awaiting.

Jeudy has already racked up 484 yards and two scores on 30 receptions. However, he could further emerge in the final eight games as he continues to grow in coordinator Pat Shurmur's offense and develop chemistry with quarterback Drew Lock.

In fact, there has been room for him to produce more. He has been targeted a team-high 61 times.

"We've got to just keep getting these reps in practice, doing that, and I think we'll end up hitting it," Lock told reporters. "I'm excited about the way Jerry played last week. He keeps getting better every single week, and I know he's going to bring it this week again."

Assuming Jeudy's shoulder injury doesn't hamper him too much, he could be in store for another huge game in Week 10. Denver will visit the Las Vegas Raiders, who rank just 26th in pass defense and 24th in points allowed.

While it's not fair to expect Jeudy to top 100 yards every week, he can have 700-plus receiving yards and 40-plus receptions in Act II of his inaugural campaign.

Indianapolis Colts rookie receiver Michael Pittman Jr. had his best game as a pro Thursday night and is coming off back-to-back strong outings. He caught seven passes for 101 yards against the Tennessee Titans after he recorded four catches for 56 yards against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.

The USC product is likely to produce more big games as he continues to distance himself from a calf injury that led to compartment syndrome and landed him on injured reserve after Week 3.

"You get some trauma in your leg, and there is nowhere for the swelling to go ... and it has to be relieved in some way, some form," offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni said, per Jim Ayello of the Indianapolis Star. "It's pretty serious. You have to relieve the pressure somehow, and the way to relieve the pressure is by opening it up."

Pittman has played six games, including three starts, and should emerge as one of Philip Rivers' top targets on the perimeter. He'll battle T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal and Marcus Johnson for targets but already ranks fourth on the team in that category.

Expect Pittman to have more games like the one he had Thursday. It won't be a surprise if he's Indianapolis' receiving leader by season's end. With seven games to play, Pittman—who has 21 catches for 236 yards—could finish with 800-plus yards.

In recent years, the Seattle Seahawks have not relied heavily on their first-round rookies. That was the case for former Texas Tech linebacker Jordyn Brooks early. He played a limited role in the first three weeks and suffered a knee injury that sidelined him for Weeks 4 and 5.

Brooks, however, has played significant snaps since returning, and he's carving out a role. In his last three games, Brooks has played 45, 50 and 32 percent of snaps. He has logged five solo tackles, 13 total tackles and a tackle for loss.

Seattle expects Brooks to shine down the stretch.

"He's a really good ballplayer," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said, per John Boyle of the team's official website. "I keep telling you I'm excited for you guys to see how fast he is and how aggressive he is. He really plays downhill."

The Seahawks could use a fast, aggressive downhill defender on a unit that ranks 30th in points allowed and 32nd in yards allowed. The unit is short on stars, so Brooks will have a chance to prove his worth as Seattle enters a tough three-game stretch at the Los Angeles Rams, versus the Arizona Cardinals and at the Eagles.

While the Seahawks have been bad against the pass, their front seven has been stout against the run—Seattle ranks fourth in rushing yards per game and rushing yards per carry allowed. That should help Brooks flourish, and he could log 50-plus tackles over the second half.

While 49ers wideout Brandon Auyik has already had his breakout performance—a six-catch, 115-yard Week 7—fellow first-rounder Javon Kinlaw is still working toward his. The former South Carolina star has yet to register a sack, but the 49ers believe it is only a matter of time.

"I thought Kinlaw had his best game last week, also. He's playing very hard and only getting better," coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters.

Kinlaw has started each of his past seven games, and he has logged six quarterback pressures this season. At some point, those pressures should turn into sacks. Josh Allen and Russell Wilson are two of the 10-most-sacked quarterbacks, and Kinlaw will get a crack at each of them in the final five games.

Kinlaw and the 49ers will also play Washington and the Dallas Cowboys in Weeks 14 and 15. Each team has played at least three quarterback and surrendered 26-plus sacks. Joe Burrow and Daniel Jones are the second-most sacked players in the NFL with 28 apiece.

Kinlaw is averaging more than two tackles per game, and that pace should continue down the stretch. While he's not surrounded by the championship-caliber defense San Francisco fielded last year—Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas are out for the year—the unit does feature Fred Warner, Arik Armstead and, perhaps soon, Richard Sherman.

Expect Kinlaw to produce around 20 tackles, 10-plus quarterback pressures and three or four sacks over the final seven games.

Rookies Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert are already playing like franchise-caliber quarterbacks, and new Miami Dolphins starter Tua Tagovailoa has a chance to join them.

Tagovailoa is 2-0 as a starter, and while he was underwhelming in his debut, he was spectacular in Week 9. Tagovailoa completed 20 of 28 passes for 248 yards and two scores at the Cardinals and rushed for 35 yards on seven keepers.

Perhaps most importantly, Tagovailoa appears to be 100 percent recovered from the hip injury he suffered just over a year ago.

"I can't see a real difference," offensive coordinator Chan Gailey said Tuesday, per Joe Schad of the Palm Beach Post. "So physically is the one thing that you had the concern about, and I think he kind of relieved all our thoughts about that the other night."

Tagovailoa was a superb playmaker for Alabama before the injury, and he could show that special talent as the 5-3 Dolphins push for a playoff spot.

Of their final eight opponents, only three—the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Raiders—have winning records. And each of their next four opponents—the Los Angeles Chargers, Broncos, Jets and Cincinnati Bengals—ranks 16th or worse in passing yards allowed and 20th or worse in points allowed.

Armed with weapons DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki, Tagovailoa should have a shot to approach 2,000 passing yards with double-digit touchdowns over the final eight weeks.

Advanced statistics via Pro Football Reference