Illinois Coronavirus: 2,360 Deaths Projected By August

ILLINOIS — The coronavirus pandemic could take as many as 2,360 lives in Illinois over the next four months, according to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

The Seattle-based institute, affiliated with the University of Washington and supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, based its projections on the expected peak of the infection in each state and the number of hospital beds, intensive-care beds and ventilators available for COVID-19 patients when most needed.

For the United States as a whole, the institute predicted that coronavirus infection would peak on April 14, when the nationwide supply of hospital beds for COVID-19 patients would fall 50,000 short of the supply, and the supply of intensive-care beds would fall shorty by nearly 15,000. Nationwide deaths on that date will top 2,300, the institute predicted, and would total more than 81,000 by Aug. 4.

The authors of the research article containing these findings wrote, "Our estimate of 81 thousand deaths in the US over the next 4 months is an alarming number, but this number could be substantially higher if excess demand for health system resources is not addressed and if social distancing policies are not vigorously implemented and enforced across all states."

In Illinois, the institute projects the infection rate and resource use wil peak on April 16. On that date, the study does not project a shortage of non-intensive care beds for coronavirus patients, but intensive care beds — needed for patients experiencing serious complications or in need of a ventilator — are expected to fall 160 short.

On that peak date, 88 additional deaths are expected, and 2,360 Illinois residents could die by Aug. 4, the institute said.

In making projections for the states, the institute took note of whether and when they issued stay-at-home orders, closed schools, closed other non-essential services and imposed travel bans.

"The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths," the authors wrote.

In Illinois, schools were closed March 13, all bars and restaurants were ordered closed to dine-in customers on March 15, and a stay-at-home order took effect March 21. The stay-at-home order was initially intended to expire April 7, but Gov. J.B. Pritzker said he's concerned he will have to extend the order longer than that, while Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot said she expects the order to late "deep into April."

Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the faces of the Trump administration's coronavirus task force, on Sunday warned that the novel coronavirus could infect millions of people in the United States and account for more than 100,000 deaths.

Speaking on CNN's "State of the Union," Fauci said that based on what he's seeing, the U.S. could experience between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths from COVID-19.

"We're going to have millions of cases," said Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, noting that projections are subject to change, given that the disease's outbreak is "such a moving target."