USDA cuts US corn production, year-end stocks, use for ethanol estimate

The US Department of Agriculture cut its estimates for US corn acreage, yield, output, ending stocks, and use for ethanol for the 2020-21 marketing year (September-August) in its October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Oct 9.

The USDA sees domestic corn production at 14.722 billion bushels (388.2 million mt), lower than the previous estimate of 14.9 billion bushels in September.

Harvested area under corn is seen at 82.5 million acres, 1 million acres lower than estimated earlier, and corn yields are seen at 178.4 bu/acre, slightly lower than September’s estimate of 178.5 bu/acre.

Year-end stocks in 2020-21 for US corn are seen at 2.167 billion bushels, down from 2.503 billion in September.

USDA’s yield forecast is higher than average trader expectations of 177.7 bu/acre, but the production estimates are lower than average trade expectations of 14.8 billion bushels due to the reduction in the estimate of harvested acreage.

For 2020-21, USDA’s estimate for corn used for ethanol in the US was reduced to 5.05 billion bushels from 5.1 billion in September.

USDA’s forecast for total corn supplies in the US for 2020-21 fell sharply to 16.742 billion bushels from 17.178 billion.

Feed and residual demand is seen at 5.775 billion bushels, lower than 5.825 billion bushels last month.

US corn exports estimate for 2020-21 was held steady at 2.325 billion bushels.

The USDA’s forecast for the season average farm price for US corn in 2020-21 was lifted to $3.60/bu from $3.50/bu earlier.

For the 2019-20 marketing year, the USDA raised its estimate for US corn exports to 1.778 billion bushels from 1.765 billion bushels in September.

Year-end stock estimate for US corn in 2019-20 marketing year was cut to 1.995 billion bushels, from 2.253 billion bushels earlier.

Estimate for corn production was raised slightly for 2019-20 to 13.620 billion bushels, from 13.617 billion bushels earlier on a tad improvement in estimated yields. US corn yield for 2019-20 is seen at 167.5 bu/acre, from 167.4 bu/acre earlier.

The USDA maintained the estimate for demand for corn for ethanol for 2019-20 at 4.85 billion bushels.
Source: Platts