The shelter-in-place orders in New Jersey, and other states, have resulted in a 30% drop in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) over the northeastern United States in March, compared to the average of the previous five years, according to NASA.
“It is making the air cleaner, and if the reduction in traffic continues into the warmer weather, it should have an effect on ozone pollution. It (NO2) can be converted to other things. Under strong sunlight it can turn into ozone. Ozone pollution can make it harder to breathe,” said Anthony Broccoli, distinguished professor and the chair of the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University.
Much of the reductions have been due to a drastic drop in transportation. The number of passengers going through Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoints in the United States were 109,567 per day, on average, during April.
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Last year, it was 2,337,486, a 95.3% decline.
Projected April 2020 usage of gasoline and coal was expected to be 36% and 22% lower, respectively, than April 2019, according to data complied by Yale University.
“As overall greenhouse gas emissions go down with overall economic recession, households are faced with a new consumption pattern,” said Rachael Shwom, an associate professor in the Department of Human Ecology at Rutgers. “The carbon footprint of their travel is down to almost zero for many as they stay at home, not driving or flying for weeks or months at a time.”
While there have been short-term benefits to the air around us, this recent drop plays a negligible role in combating climate change, unless drops were to continue into the future as the economy reopens.
“The climate doesn’t care about emissions in one year. It cares about the sum total of all emissions emitted across the years, so what matters for climate change is what happens next.” said Robert E. Kopp, director of the Rutgers Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences.
In March, the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii still reported an increase in the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2), a greenhouse gas, in the air compared to the previous March.
Unlike NO2, which have a relatively short atmospheric lifetime, the atmosphere lifetime of CO2, along with other greenhouse gases, is much longer.
“If you have to wait for natural processes to remove it from the atmosphere, it would take centuries or thousands of years,” Broccoli said.
The recession of 2007-08 proves this point and can be used as an example of what is happening in 2020. The reduction in emissions then was about 10% to 20%. Still, the amount of carbon dioxide in the air continued to rise at Mauna Loa.
“It’s like filling up a bathtub without the drain. If you turn off the water for a little while and then turn it back it on, you’re only delaying the amount of time it takes to fill it up. ... What’s really needed to stay below the 2-degree threshold is a much larger reduction in emissions that stays into the future.” Broccoli said.
Renewable energy was projected to be on the rise for April 2020. Wind and solar were both expected to see a 20% rise, according to Yale, due to the falling cost of production electricity in conjunction with new generation capacity.
Broccoli sees similarities between the coronavirus pandemic and climate change when it comes to impacts it has on people’s health.
“In the case of the pandemic, it was something that came on very suddenly and the effect it has on people’s health, there’s no avoiding it.” Broccoli said. “Climate change is also an issue that can have impacts on virtually everyone on earth, but it’s something that’s unfolding much more slowly. In a way, I think this reminds us that when you have adverse situations that impact people, the effects are truly global and the effects are truly serious.”
The pandemic shutdown has given governments the chance to pause and reflect on how to approach the future. According to Kopp, climate change should be included in this as well.
“As we rebuild our economy, are we going to invest in a green stimulus that places the United States and the world on a path toward net-zero carbon emissions and a stable climate? Or are we going to try to bail out the fossil fuel industry and put all the pieces back to where they were last year? From a climate change perspective, that’s the real question.” Kopp said.
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