Happy Monday gamblers, it's Chris Bengel back with you. I'm going to assume that you're just as excited to have football back as I am.
The NFL has not disappointed so far in Week 1. From seeing the Colts and Texans tie to neither team wanting to win the Bengals-Steelers game, we saw our fair share of drama throughout the league on Sunday. Buckle up for six consecutive months of football action. I for one, am beyond excited to have the pigskin back.
We've got one more game on the docket tonight, and I've got a few picks pertaining to that contest. Let's dive into the picks!
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Broncos at Seahawks, 8:20 p.m. | TV: ESPN
- Key Trend: The Broncos are 4-1-2 ATS in their last seven games in Week 1
- The Pick: Broncos -6.5 (-110)
One of the biggest Week 1 storylines is Russell Wilson returning to Seattle as a member of the Broncos. Despite being on the road, the Broncos are touchdown favorites. I'm hammering the spread.
After being traded away, Wilson will be looking to make some noise against his former team. He has a whole host of weapons to get the ball to, including Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. It also doesn't hurt that the Broncos have a 5-1 record ATS over their last six September games, despite having signal callers like Drew Lock (who ironically is a Seahawk now) and Teddy Bridgewater.
Wilson has started the season off extremely well over the past three years. Over his last three season-opening games, Wilson has thrown 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions. In addition, two of those three games came while playing on the road and he's been victorious in all three. Simply put, Wilson has no problem getting off to a hot start and that shouldn't change in Monday's opener.
💰 The Picks
The Pick: Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-148): -- As I mentioned above, Wilson has thrived in season openers. In 2021, he completed 18-of-23 passes for 254 yards and four touchdowns through the air against the Colts. Even if it's a tough defense, Wilson has protected the football and let it fly with supreme accuracy.
As for the Seahawks, last season they allowed the second-most passing yards (4,513 yards) to the opposition while also yielding the ninth-most net yards gained per pass attempt (6.6 yards). Seattle does possess a ballhawking safety in Jamal Adams, but Wilson is definitely a smart enough quarterback to minimize his bad throws. The Seahawks also registered just 34.0 sacks, which was just 23rd in the NFL. Wilson should have plenty of time to throw and has the playmakers to find the end zone. Two touchdown passes certainly shouldn't be a hard bar to clear if this one.
Key Trend: Wilson has thrown at least two touchdown passes in six of his last seven regular season games
Rangers at Marlins, 7:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Rangers (-125) -- We've got a matchup between two evenly-matched teams with the Marlins hosting the Rangers on Monday. It's a situation where something has to give for one of these teams.
Both teams Monday with just two wins over their last 13 games. Even the pitching matchup is closely-contested, with Rangers starter Jon Gray owning a 7-6 record to go along with a 3.83 ERA and Marlins starter Braxton Garrett having a 2-6 record and a 3.67 ERA. Prior to an oblique injury, Gray had surrendered three runs or less in eight of his previous 10 outings. He also recorded at least seven strikeouts in seven of those 10 starts during that stretch.
I'm riding with the Rangers because they simply have the better lineup. They rank first in stolen bases (115), 10th in home runs (168), 14th in RBIs (588) and 14th in runs (619). Despite not having a ton of household names, Texas can manufacture runs and should be able to do so against Garrett. After all, Garrett has only registered one win since June 18. I'll back the Rangers to grab the win in this spot between two lackluster clubs.
Key Trend: The Rangers are 6-1 in their last seven interleague road games against a team with a losing record
