Golkar is Confident Still Carrying Airlangga as the 2024 Presidential Candidate

The consistency of the Golkar Party to continue supporting its chairman, Airlangga Hartarto, to run in the 2024 Presidential Election (Pilpres) is one of the outcomes of the National Working Meeting (Rakernas) held at the Golkar Party Central Leadership Council (DPP) office in Jakarta on Sunday (4/6/2023). The Rakernas was attended by the DPP management, DPD I from 38 provinces, Hasta Karya organization, and members of the Golkar Party Faction in the DPR, Provincial DPRD, and Regency/City DPRD.

Among those present were Golkar Party Chairperson Airlangga Hartarto, Golkar Secretary General Lodewijk F Paulus, Golkar Deputy Chairperson Bambang Soesatyo, Golkar Expert Council Chairman Agung Laksono, and Golkar Honorary Council Chairman Akbar Tandjung. Apart from that, Deputy Chairperson of Golkar who is also the Executive Chair of National Working Meeting, Kahar Muzakkir, and Deputy Chairperson of Golkar who is also Chair of the Steering Committee National Working Meeting Ahmad Doli Kurnia Tandjung were also present among the participants of the National Working Meeting.

Also read: United Indonesia Coalition Prioritizes Airlangga Hartarto as the 2024 Presidential Candidate

After the National Working Meeting, Sunday afternoon, Airlangga explained, all participants had agreed on a number of decision points regarding the winning of the 2024 Election. Starting from winning the presidential election, the election for legislative members (Pileg), and the regional head election (Pilkada).

Regarding the legislative elections, Golkar is committed to fighting for the proportional open electoral system, even though a material review that could potentially change the electoral system to a closed proportional system is currently underway at the Constitutional Court. The list of prospective candidates that has been registered with the General Election Commission in alphabetical order will soon be changed to numerical order, while still adhering to the 30 percent affirmation policy for women prospective candidates.

All participants of the national coordination meeting have agreed on several decision points regarding winning the 2024 elections, starting from the presidential election, legislative election, and also regional head election.

For the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election, added Airlangga, the 2023 National Working Meeting has decided to continue to give a mandate to the general chairman of Golkar, both in determining the presidential candidates (candidates) and vice presidents (cawapres) to be carried as well as the steps strategy to be pursued. The aforementioned mandate was previously decided at the 2019 National Conference (Munas) and the 2021 National Leadership Meeting (Rapimnas).

"The results of the national meeting, national leadership meeting, and national work meeting still mandate that the Chairman of the Golkar party and all regions still request that the Chairman of the Golkar party run for presidency," said Airlangga.

He added that Golkar will enter its 60th anniversary in 2024. It is the right time to make new history by winning the legislative and presidential elections. In simultaneous elections, the presence of cadres as presidential candidates is believed to have a significant impact on the party's vote share in the legislative election. This is important because Golkar targets to obtain 20 percent of the total seats in the DPR, up from the achievement in the 2019 election, which was 14.7 percent.

The results of the national congress, national coordination meeting, and national work meeting confirmed that the mandate remains with the Chairman of Golkar Party and all regions still request that the Chairman of Golkar Party runs for the presidential election.

"This legislative election, as you know, will be held concurrently with the presidential election, so the decision to nominate Airlangga as a presidential candidate will certainly boost the spirit of Golkar party members to fight and win," said Airlangga.

Party infrastructure

Nevertheless, Golkar's decision to nominate Airlangga has not been in line with the public's wishes as recorded in the survey results of a number of institutions. The results of a Kompas Research and Development survey conducted April 29-May 10 2023 show that the electability of the Coordinating Minister for the Economy was below 1 percent. Airlangga's electability rate also tends to be consistent in similar surveys conducted in the previous four periods, namely in January, June, October 2022 and January 2023.

Not only that, according to the Indikator Politik Indonesia survey from May 26-30, 2023 which was published on Sunday, Airlangga's electability reached 0.5 percent in a simulation involving 18 presidential candidate names. In the simulation involving 10 names, his electability was 0.7 percent. Airlangga's electability was higher in simulations involving four and three names, namely 2 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively.

"The survey results serve as a reference in seeking alternative considerations for decision making."

Vice Chairman of Golkar Party Ahmad Doli Kurnia Tandjung stated that his party sees survey results as a reference in finding alternative considerations for decision-making. There is a separate mechanism used to evaluate the party's work.

As the political party that gained the second highest number of seats in the 2019 Election, Golkar believes that it has a strong party infrastructure. Until now, Golkar's management structure has been formed and actively working from the central level to the village level. This is a separate strength to continue to support Golkar's Chairman as a participant in the 2024 Presidential Election.

"This national working meeting also demonstrates that we have a sufficiently wide network, our consolidation is quite mature, and we also have our own mechanisms to evaluate the work of the party," said Doli.

Despite claiming to have a strong party infrastructure, Golkar cannot nominate Airlangga without forming a coalition. This is because the number of seats in the DPR and the national vote share of the party in the 2019 election did not meet the threshold for presidential candidate nomination as stipulated in Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning Elections. Therefore, Golkar continues to build communication between political parties.

After forming the United Indonesian Coalition (KIB) with the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP) in mid-2022, Golkar is now exploring the possibility of forming a coalition with the Gerindra Party and the Nation Awakening Party (PKB), which are part of the Great Indonesia Rising Coalition (KKIR).

Golkar can form a coalition with any political party

Not only that, Golkar also opens the opportunity to form a coalition with PAN. Communication with the Democratic Party, which has formed a coalition with the Nasdem Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) under the Coalition for Unity and Change (KPP), is also being conducted. Various opportunities are being explored at least after PPP declared cooperation with the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) to nominate the PDI-P's presidential candidate, namely Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo.

Doli stated that with the acquisition of seats in the 2019 election and the open nature of the party, Golkar can form a coalition with any political party. So far, various political communications carried out by the elites have yet to be followed up with an official declaration of coalition. This means that the situation is still dynamic.

"Our chairperson is aware that in such a dynamic situation, intensive communication is increasingly necessary. Therefore, the chairperson is now meeting more frequently with other political party elites," said Doli.

Another coalition

Not only Golkar is consistent in endorsing Airlangga, but PAN also continues to push for Minister of State-Owned Enterprises Erick Thohir to become a potential vice presidential candidate. Although not yet officially a member, PAN and Erick are said to have a special relationship. Therefore, PAN also continues to communicate with other political parties. After meeting with PDI-P elite last week, the PAN DPP is also scheduled to receive a visit from Gerindra elite in Jakarta on Monday (5/6/2023) afternoon.

Chairman of the Advisory Council of the National Mandate Party (PAN), Dradjad Wibowo, stated that according to the plan, the Gerindra Party will make a return visit to the PAN Central Office. He acknowledged that there would be an increase in communication and lobbying between political parties, especially since PAN has not yet determined its support for the 2024 Presidential Election.

"It is reasonable for Gerindra to try to get PAN to nominate Prabowo Subianto (Chairman of Gerindra) as presidential candidate, because PAN has not made a final decision. On the other hand, it is also reasonable for PAN to continue to push for Erick Thohir to be nominated by other parties as vice presidential candidate, including by Gerindra," he said.

It is reasonable for Gerindra to try to get PAN to nominate Prabowo Subianto (the Chairman of Gerindra). It is also reasonable for PAN to continue to push for Erick Thohir to be nominated as a vice presidential candidate by other political parties, including Gerindra.

The Daily Chairman of Gerindra DPP, Sufmi Dasco Ahmad, also confirmed the plan for the meeting. He mentioned that the visit is already at a more serious stage than just an exploratory meeting. "There is already a chance for cooperation, but we will further mature the cooperation for the 2024 Elections," he said.

Meanwhile, the Coordinator of Democratic Party Spokesperson, Herzaky Mahendra Putra, emphasizes that the Coalition for Supporting the Government (KPP) remains solid. The three political parties, namely the Democratic Party, Nasdem, and PKS, remain committed to the signed Charter of Change. Although there are narratives stating that the KPP is not solid, the three political parties will not betray the coalition's commitment.

In fact, KPP is becoming more solid after the presidential candidate Anies Rasyid Baswedan has chosen a vice presidential candidate. The chosen vice presidential candidate is also able to strengthen the solidarity and commitment of the three political parties in KPP to continue to struggle together to realize change. "Until now, we have not seen any political parties in KPP violating their commitment," said Herzaky.

Also read: Golkar Takes Systematic Steps to Boost Airlangga's Electability

Pragmatis

Political lecturer at the Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Airlangga University, Surabaya, East Java, Haryadi, sees that a number of political parties that consistently support their cadre or candidates associated with them in the presidential election, even though it is against the wishes of the public, are motivated by pragmatic reasons. The pragmatism referred to is related to the interest in supporting the party's vote acquisition in the legislative elections. Moreover, in the context of Golkar and PAN, both do not have strong figures to be marketed in the 2024 Elections.

So, the political steps are purely pragmatic (for the benefit of the legislative elections).

"Expecting a tail effect from the coalition, of course, there is. But its impact is small, and Golkar and PAN understand that. So their political steps are purely pragmatic (for the sake of the legislative elections)," said the Senior Researcher at Lab 45."

According to Haryadi, currently Golkar is bound by the decision of the 2019 National Congress which requires its chairman to run in the 2024 Presidential Election. To change this, a decision must be taken at a forum equivalent to the National Congress or a change of leadership must occur. "It seems that Golkar is currently experiencing internal political problems, so the direction of its coalition is unclear," he said.

Meanwhile, Haryadi sees that the maneuver carried out by PAN through Erick Thohir's nomination indicates the party's effort to improve its bargaining position. The success of his candidacy tends to be the last consideration. What is important is the effort to support Erick to be paired with any party that is considered to have the greatest chance of winning.