Is South Africa ready for a change in government?

Songezo Zibi, the leader of a new political party in South Africa, thinks the country is ripe for an Emmanuel Macron moment in the national election on May 29th—one in which a political insurgent can disrupt the 30-year-long reign of the African National Congress (ANC). The former newspaper editor has a slick campaign that emphasises competence over hollow campaign promises. Yet he lacks Mr Macron’s sweeping ambition. Instead of aiming for the presidency, Mr Zibi simply hopes that Rise Mzansi, his party, will win perhaps 5% of the national vote. (Polls currently have it at only about 0.5%.)

These modest goals are not a deterrent to donors. Rise Mzansi (named after the Xhosa word for “south”, a colloquial term for South Africa), raised 16.7m rand ($900,000) in the fourth quarter of 2023, which was more than any other party, including the official opposition, the Democratic Alliance (DA). This makes it one of the leading examples of how politics is fragmenting in South Africa as the country prepares for the first election since the end of apartheid in which the ANC is expected to lose its parliamentary majority.