There's no way around it: LSU baseball is in danger of missing the NCAA tournament.
Not including the canceled COVID-19 season, LSU has made the tournament every year since 2011. But after starting Southeastern Conference play with a 3-12 record and losing its opening five series in conference play for the first time since 1977, the Tigers' tourney streak is in jeopardy.
But their season isn't over. Five more weekends of SEC matchups still remain on LSU's schedule, starting this Friday when it travels to Columbia and face Missouri for a three game series.
Here's a detailed look at LSU's odds of making the NCAA tournament halfway through SEC play.
How many games does LSU need to win before the end of the regular season to make the NCAA tournament?
LSU has 15 more conference games before the start of the SEC tournament. After traveling to Missouri this weekend, the Tigers will face Auburn, Texas A&M, Alabama and Ole Miss in consecutive weekends.
At a minimum, 13 wins in conference play should put them in contention for an at-large berth in the NCAA tournament — the same number of victories LSU had when it snuck into the tournament in 2021. By that math, the Tigers will need to win at least 10 SEC games before the start of the postseason.
The Auburn and Missouri series are virtual must-win three game sets. Both teams are in last place in their respective divisions. Auburn is 2-13 against the SEC and Missouri is 5-10.
Winning both series would get LSU at least four wins and to no worse than 7-14 in conference play. A series sweep on both weekends would set its record to a respectable 9-12.
However, top-ranked Texas A&M at home and a trip No. 18 Alabama on the road the next two weeks will be challenging. LSU may not be able to survive a series sweep during this stretch and probably can't afford two series defeats. Getting to at least 10 wins in conference play by the end of the Alabama series will be paramount.
The Tigers' final SEC series against Ole Miss will be their most important series of the year if they get to 10 or more conference wins prior to that weekend.
The Rebels are just 5-10 in conference play but are on the cusp of making the NCAA tournament themselves as a last four out team in D1Baseball and Baseball America's projections. A series victory over them would potentially see LSU leapfrog over them in the NCAA tournament hierarchy entering the SEC tournament.
How important will the SEC tournament be for LSU?
Probably critical. Winning its first game in Hoover to reach the double elimination phase of the tournament will be crucial in giving the Tigers more chances of grabbing SEC victories and gaining greater control of their own destiny.
Where does LSU stand in the RPI?
As of Thursday, LSU is 46th in the RPI with a 1-8 record against top-25 teams in the rankings.
The Tigers are 12th in the SEC in terms of the important strength of schedule metric that helps determine the NCAA tournament field. They trail Kentucky (2), Texas A&M (3), Arkansas (4), Tennessee (7), Georgia (10), South Carolina (13), Vanderbilt (16), Alabama (22), Ole Miss (27), Auburn (35) and Florida (42).
Mississippi State (57) and Missouri (88) are the only programs that trail LSU in RPI among SEC clubs.
Which teams not in the SEC is LSU battling with for a spot in the NCAA tournament?
D1Baseball has Florida, Texas, Boston College and Illinois-Chicago as the final four teams in its latest NCAA tournament projections. Baseball America has TCU, Texas, Georgia Southern and Indiana as the last four teams in its projections.
The first four teams out of the field for D1Baseball include LSU, Ole Miss, James Madison and St. John's. Baseball America has Illinois, James Madison, UNC Wilmington and Ole Miss under that same category.
With Texas being on the tournament bubble in both projections, LSU's win over the Longhorns in Houston may come in handy moving forward. The Tigers' victory over UL — a top-25 ranked team — might also be helpful as a resume booster moving forward.
LSU may have lost its series' to Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Florida, but it won a valuable game against each team. All three teams made D1Baseball and Baseball America's tournament projections.
What's the likelihood that LSU makes the NCAA tournament?
It's hard to pin LSU's odds at above 50%. But with plenty of baseball left to be played and a schedule that eases up in the second half, it's also impossible to say that the Tigers' chances of reaching the tournament are at 0%.