Start 'Em or Sit 'Em for Fantasy Football Week 7

Gary Davenport@@IDPSharksX.com LogoNFL AnalystOctober 17, 2019

Start 'Em or Sit 'Em for Fantasy Football Week 7

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    Kyusung Gong/Associated Press

    It feels like only yesterday that we were drafting fantasy football squads for the 2019 season. And yet here we are, already at the halfway point of the fantasy regular season.

    Some things have gone according to plan. Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey has lived up to his top-three draft status and then some. Michael Thomas of the New Orleans Saints is right at the top of the wide receiver leaderboard, just as we expected.

    However, just as happens every year, many more things haven't aligned with the forecasts. The consensus top overall pick (New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley) has missed significant time with an ankle injury. Pittsburgh Steelers wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster has seen his production tail off considerably after Ben Roethlisberger got hurt.

    It's the time of year when setting fantasy lineups requires a balancing act, combining what we thought we knew entering the 2019 season with what we know six weeks in. And for many fantasy owners who didn't get off to the best of starts, there's no longer much margin for error.

    As has been the case every week this season, I'm here to help. I've taken a dive into the start/sit questions on the Bleacher Report app and selected some that will help offer insight into players who could be in for big games or even bigger disappointments during this week's action.

    Into the fray we go.

                 

    Still can't figure out your fantasy football lineup for the week? Check out Your Fantasy Fire Drill with Matt Camp, and he'll solve your problems live. Submit your questions and tune in every Sunday at 11:30 a.m. ET, only on the B/R app.

Tight End Toss-Up

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    From the Bleacher Report App

    This question is a really good one—and an example of just how quickly things can change in fantasy football.

    A week ago, this was a no-brainer. Over the first five weeks of the season, Darren Waller of the Oakland Raiders ranked sixth in point-per-reception (PPR) fantasy points among tight ends. Hunter Henry of the Los Angeles Chargers, on the other hand, hadn't played since catching four passes for 60 yards in the season opener.

    But while Waller was enjoying his week off, Henry was going off with eight catches for 100 yards and two touchdowns in a Week 6 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

    It creates a real quandary and a good old-fashioned toss-up.

    In a situation like this, you're looking for anything that separates the options. And in this case, the matchup does just that. While Henry and the Chargers get a relatively favorable slate with a Tennessee Titans team giving up the 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends, Waller and the Raiders draw a Green Bay Packers team allowing the sixth-fewest.

    Ride the hot hand with a better matchup.

    The Call: Henry

White Flag for Flash?

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    From the Bleacher Report App

    There's no harder decision fantasy owners face than knowing when to give up on a player. And after his disappointing start to the season, it's understandable that folks are antsy about Josh Gordon of the New England Patriots.

    It's not time to bail on Gordon entirely. His ceiling is still too high for that. But between that slow start (he has just one score on the season and hasn't posted 60 receiving yards in a game since Week 3) and the knee injury suffered early in the Week 6 win over the New York Giants, he needs to be on the bench in Week 7.

    (This assumes that the inquiry is in regards to Josh Gordon and not running back Melvin Gordon III of the Los Angeles Chargers. Context is important, folks. It helps to clarify.)

    That leaves the question of who to start in his place.

    Will Fuller V of the Houston Texans is out. Yes, he went off in Week 5, catching 14 passes for 217 yards and three touchdowns. But he followed that up with a five-catch, 44-yard effort against the Kansas City Chiefs in which he was plagued by drops. The ceiling is sky-high, but Fuller's floor is alarmingly low.

    I'm going to assume (again) "Robinson" means Allen Robinson II of the Chicago Bears and not Demarcus Robinson of the Chiefs, whose fantasy value took a huge hit with the return of Tyreek Hill. But frankly, either Robinson is out. Allen will draw one of the NFL's better shadow corners Sunday in Marcus Lattimore of the New Orleans Saints.

    That leaves Calvin Ridley of the Atlanta Falcons, who reeled in four passes for 48 yards and a score last week against the Arizona Cardinals. It was the second straight week in which Ridley found the end zone.

    In Week 7, the Falcons play host to a Los Angeles Rams team that just added Jalen Ramsey in a blockbuster trade, but Ramsey hasn't played since Week 3 due to a back injury and will probably need some time to acclimate to his new team.

    Even if Ramsey plays, he'd more likely than not draw Julio Jones in coverage, while Ridley would get Troy Hill after a different trade sent Marcus Peters from L.A. to Baltimore. The Rams had a busy day.

    The Call: Ridley

The Dichotomy of Dak

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    From the Bleacher Report App

    It's been a tale of two seasons for Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott.

    Over the first three weeks of the 2019 campaign, he was a top-five quarterback in many fantasy scoring systems and the Cowboys were 3-0. But as injuries mounted for the team, Prescott's production went off a cliff. During the current three-game skid, he has plummeted outside the top 10.

    It's been an ugly drop And with Amari Cooper's Week 7 availability in serious question as the result of a deep thigh bruise, Prescott may not have hit bottom yet.

    Jacoby Brissett of the Indianapolis Colts, on the other hand, hasn't had the same type of roller-coaster ride. He's been a low-end fantasy QB1 in 12-team leagues most of the season, and that's not likely to change moving forward.

    This decision depends quite a bit on both Cooper's Week 7 availability and how you feel about your prospects this week.

    If it looks like Cooper will play or you feel like you need a big score from the QB spot, then Prescott is the call. But bear in mind Dallas doesn't play the Philadelphia Eagles until Sunday night. If Cooper is a game-time decision or you want to play things safe, Brissett should post at least a serviceable line against the Houston Texans.

    The flex call is the same whether Cooper plays or not. It might be tempting to roll Cowboys wideout Michael Gallup out if Cooper is a no-go Sunday night, but San Francisco 49ers running back Tevin Coleman has carried the ball 15-plus times and found the end zone in each of the last two games.

    Follow the touches.

    The Call: Prescott (if Cooper plays) and Coleman

Which Wideouts?

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    From the Bleacher Report App

    Since we have a long list of wide receiver options here, let's go one name at a time.

    With Case Keenum back under center last week, Terry McLaurin went off again: four catches for 100 yards and two scores in Washington's first win of the year. Even if the rookie were drawing Richard Sherman in coverage this week against the San Francisco 49ers, he's essentially a must-start at this point. That he isn't (they both play on the left side of their respective formations) is icing on the cake.

    Golden Tate of the New York Giants had a huge Week 6 with six catches for 102 yards and a touchdown. He should see a hefty target share in a favorable matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. But with Sterling Shepard's Week 7 status up in the air as he recovers from a concussion and Patrick Peterson returning for the Cardinals, Tate is a somewhat reluctant pass.

    John Brown is the No. 1 wideout for the Buffalo Bills, and his catch and yardage numbers have been decent in his past two appearances. But being the top receiver in Buffalo isn't exactly a high-upside fantasy slot. Again, we'll pass.

    Rookie DK Metcalf of the Seattle Seahawks has shown flashes of his prodigious athletic talent in 2019. But his production has also ping-ponged all over the place. He's pass No. 3.

    That leaves Michael Gallup of the Dallas Cowboys, who, frankly, struggled in last week's loss to the New York Jets. However, he could be Dallas' No. 1 wide receiver Sunday night against a Philadelphia Eagles secondary giving up the most PPR fantasy points to wide receivers in 2019.

    Gallup is the second choice. Although if Amari Cooper trends toward playing and you're risk-averse, Tate is not a bad Plan B.

    The Call: McLaurin and Gallup

Two by Two

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    From the Bleacher Report App

    It took a while, but Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman is finally producing for fantasy owners. Better late than never and all that.

    Last week against the Arizona Cardinals, Freeman piled up a season-high 118 total yards and two scores. He has now hit 100 total yards or found the end zone in three straight games, making him the best available option among those running backs.

    The second RB slot is a closer call. But with the Buffalo Bills preparing to face a Miami Dolphins team that's been gashed on the ground to the tune of almost 170 yards per game, rookie Devin Singletary gets the nod over Jordan Howard of the Philadelphia Eagles if he makes a return to action this week after battling with a hamstring injury.

    At wide receiver, Adam Thielen of the Minnesota Vikings is a fairly obvious call. He's hauled in 13 catches for 187 yards and three touchdowns over the past two games.

    Is that good? It sounds good.

    I've already mentioned that Will Fuller V of the Houston Texans is a high-variance fantasy option. But I've also mentioned that Josh Gordon is banged up and hasn't had 60 receiving yards in a game since Week 3.

    In this case, the dice roll with Fuller is worth the gamble.

    The Call: Freeman, Singletary, Thielen, Fuller

Hot vs. Cold

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    From the Bleacher Report App

    At first glance, this appears to be an easy call. Through six games this season, Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has been a top-five fantasy option who has thrown for over 300 yards in every contest.

    Jared Goff of the Los Angeles Rams hasn't lived up to that standard and is coming off one of the worst games of his career: a 78-yard debacle in a lopsided loss to the San Francisco 49ers.

    So that's that, right? Roll out Ryan and call it a day.

    The thing is, there's a reason this question was asked in the first place. And that reason is matchups as the two quarterbacks square off against one another.

    Ryan's matchup isn't great, but it isn't terrible, either. At this point in the season, the Rams rank just inside the top 20 in fantasy points per game given up to the quarterback position. The merry-go-round at cornerback in Los Angeles (in addition to the Marcus Peters and Jalen Ramsey trades, veteran Aqib Talib was placed on injured reserve) could help a bit, but it's still far from ideal.

    Meanwhile, Goff faces a Falcons team that has been a hot mess defensively in 2019. The Falcons are 27th in the NFL in pass defense, have allowed the second-most touchdown passes and are coughing up the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season.

    If ever there were a week for Goff to get right, this is it.

    Ryan is still the call here thanks to his consistent production. But consider this notice that Goff should rebound quite nicely from his Week 6 faceplant.

    The Call: Ryan

Combing Through the Wreckage

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    From the Bleacher Report App

    This is another example of how quickly things can change in fantasy football. And this time, none of it is good.

    Not long ago, Joe Mixon of the Cincinnati Bengals was coming off fantasy draft boards as an RB1 in 12-team leagues. Even more recently, Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers was functioning as a fantasy RB1.

    But Mixon never got off the ground for the 0-6 Bungles (that's right, the Bungles are back). And with Melvin Gordon III back and the Chargers in a tailspin, Ekeler's fantasy value has plummeted the last couple of weeks.

    However, this call comes down to that pair. Chris Thompson is in the third circle of NFL purgatory that is the Washington Redskins. And while Royce Freeman of the Denver Broncos draws a good matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, his carry share can fluctuate wildly from week to week.

    I'd hesitantly advise rolling out Mixon here.

    Yes, Mixon is coming off a loss to the Baltimore Ravens in which he managed just 10 touches for 39 yards against a defense that has been gashed by opponents with regularity. Yes, he's averaging just 3.4 yards per carry and hasn't had a rushing score yet this year. And yes, the Bengals are well and truly a terrible football team.

    But Mixon also led the AFC in rushing last year and is the unquestioned lead back in Cincinnati. The touches will be there against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

    He's the best of a bad set of options.

    At least you have Josh Jacobs of the Oakland Raiders, who should produce against a Green Bay Packers defense that can be run on.

    The Call: Mixon

More Moribund Backs

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    From the Bleacher Report App

    These last two questions remind me of my own running back situations.

    In related news: sigh.

    Of this trio of less-than-stellar fantasy options in the backfield, the first slot goes to rookie David Montgomery of the Chicago Bears. The reason is simple: opportunity.

    Montgomery hasn't yet been the force some in the fantasy community predicted, but he's had 15-plus touches in three of his last four games. Provided the Bears don't fall too far behind the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, he should hit that mark again in Week 7.

    Spot No. 2 belongs to Damien Williams of the Kansas City Chiefs. His workload is a significant concern after he had just two touches in last week's loss to the Houston Texans. But even then, he found the end zone. Kansas City's ability to score points in bunches is just too good to pass up.

    That leaves Miles Sanders of the Philadelphia Eagles as the odd man out.

    Sanders piled up 92 total yards and a score last week against the Minnesota Vikings, but the rookie from Penn State did so on just six touches. Even in a favorable fantasy matchup with the Dallas Cowboys, worries about his workload drop him behind both Williams and Montgomery.

    The Call: Montgomery and Williams

Hooper and Henry, Attorneys at Law

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    From the Bleacher Report App

    That Austin Hooper is even mentioned in this question is a testament to how good the Atlanta Falcons tight end has been in 2019.

    That he's a no-brainer pick over Henry as the starter at tight end is just wild.

    Still, that's where we're at. After peeling off eight catches for 117 yards and a touchdown last week against the Arizona Cardinals, Hooper isn't just fantasy football's top tight end. He's posted almost two full fantasy points per game more than Evan Engram of the New York Giants.

    Now, Hunter Henry of the Los Angeles Chargers is technically averaging even more than that. But he's also played in just two games. The question now is whether that's enough to start him over the other options listed here.

    Will Fuller V of the Houston Texans is an easy pass. He just doesn't have the consistent production the other players listed here have displayed in 2019. Tyrell Williams has a touchdown in each of the four games he's played this year, but the Oakland Raiders wide receiver is also nursing a foot injury that leaves his Week 7 availability in question. He's out, too.

    That leaves Matt Breida of the San Francisco 49ers, who presently sits just inside the top 25 PPR running backs for the season. Breida is actually coming off arguably his least impressive outing of the season in Week 6 against the Los Angeles Rams (17 touches, 63 total yards), but the 24-year-old has at least 13 touches in every game this season and has crossed the century mark twice.

    With Breida set to face a woeful Washington Redskins defense that is giving up the fifth-most PPR fantasy points per game to running backs, he gets the slightest of edges over Henry for the flex spot.

    The Call: Hooper and Breida

Rapid Fire

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    Tim Ireland/Associated Press

    Now it's time to bang out some more queries from the Bleacher Report app, rapid-fire style.

    The only thing better than being wrong is being wrong quickly.

            

    seahawkssuck has a running back question: "Le'Veon [Bell] or Josh Jacobs?"

    The New York Jets looked light-years better offensively against the Cowboys in Week 6, but the New England Patriots are last in the AFC in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. The Packers have surrendered the fourth-most. Jacobs all day.

          

    More running backs from jakebek19: "Kerryon Johnson or Tevin Coleman?"

    Again, this has more to do with the matchups than the backs themselves. Coleman splits carries with Matt Breida, but he also gets a top-five fantasy matchup with the Redskins. Johnson draws the opposite end of the spectrum: a bottom-five fantasy matchup with the Minnesota Vikings. It's close, but Coleman gets the nod.

          

    KingKenny32 has a flex problem: "Dede [Westbrook], [Austin] Ekeler or [Tyrell] Williams for flex. Full PPR?"

    If Williams can get back on the field this Sunday at Lambeau Field, he's the play even in a difficult matchup with the Packers. If Williams sits, it's Ekeler in the hope that the Chargers can get something going on the ground this week against the Titans. Jacksonville's passing game isn't prolific enough to start their No. 2 receiver (Westbrook) over either player, even against the woeful Bengals.

           

    More flex-ing from the_hive: "One WR, one flex. "[Austin] Ekeler, [George] Kittle, [Tyler] Lockett, [Terry] McLaurin, [Kenny] Golladay."

    All three of those wide receivers are comparable options, but Lockett has far and away the best matchup of the lot. The Ravens are 10th in PPR fantasy points per game given up to wideouts. He gets the start alongside Kittle, who's a sure bet for heavy targets on a weekly basis.

          

    kpowers4 is looking for some quarterback advice: "Dak Prescott or Josh Allen."

    I'd feel a lot better about Prescott's rebound chances in Week 7 against a shaky Eagles secondary if the Cowboys weren't so banged up offensively. Given that, the pick here is Allen against the flaming wreckage of the Miami Dolphins.

           

    juvy_mendoza is just rubbing it in: "49ers or Bills defense?"

    There really isn't any wrong answer here. It's two of the NFL's better defensive units against two tomato cans that rank inside the top five in fantasy points per game allowed to team defenses: Washington and Miami. That said, the Bills are at home against the Dolphins, who are arguably the worst NFL team of the last decade. Buffalo it is.

          

    estebanstevens has a wide receiver question: "Need to start 2 receivers. Which do I sit? [Calvin] Ridley/[Courtland] Sutton/[Terry] McLaurin"

    This is another close call involving three comparable pass-catchers. McLaurin is just too hot to sit, so it comes down to Ridley's two-game touchdown streak versus Sutton's better matchup with an iffy Chiefs defense. It's all but a coin flip. But in terms of fantasy points allowed, Ridley has a slight edge.

          

    NateAntonik is rocking it old school: "Adrian Peterson or Golden Tate…PPR flex?"

    New Washington head coach Bill Callahan followed through with his plan to run the ball more last week, resulting in a 100-yard day for Peterson against the Dolphins. But the San Francisco 49ers are a much different matchup. With Tate getting a point per catch, he's the better play against the Cardinals.

         

    Have other fantasy football start/sit questions? Post them here, on the Bleacher Report app or on Twitter @IDPSharks, and I'll do my best to help.

    Gary Davenport was the Fantasy Sports Writers Association 2017 Football Writer of the Year.

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