Bahrain Grand Prix 2016: 5 Bold Predictions for Sakhir Race

With a little luck, the racing may just get in the way of the arguing at this weekend's Bahrain Grand Prix, where the 2016 Formula One season will resume at the Sakhir circuit.

The new campaign got off to an exciting start at the Australian GP, where Mercedes' Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton fought back to defeat Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari, yet F1's feel-good factor almost instantly evaporated in the aftermath of the race.

Controversies concerning anything from the retention of the unpopular new qualifying format to incoming television deals immediately overshadowed the most thrilling season opener in several seasons, but Bahrain—the scene of a modern classic just two years ago—could shine the spotlight on the on-track action.

With a look at the potential race winner, a surprise podium finisher and those facing a difficult weekend, here are five predictions for the first night race of 2016.

There appears to be more to Ferrari's impressive starts in the Australian Grand Prix than an extra formation lap and a slice of good fortune.

As noted by Motorsport.com's Jonathan Noble, the team's unique response to the new single-hand, single-clutch paddle regulations has seen Ferrari develop a solitary "rocker" paddle stretching across the rear of the steering wheel.

And if that paddle allowed Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen to jump the Mercedes drivers at a circuit like Albert Park, the team must fancy their chances of passing Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg on the much longer run toward Turn 1 in Bahrain.

But how will the Ferrari respond on the day the wrong car emerges from the first corner in the lead?

Such has been the level of Vettel's dominance over Raikkonen over the last 12 months that the pit wall have never been required to enforce team orders over their drivers, but the 2007 world champion has generally excelled at Sakhir since his F1 comeback four years ago.

Raikkonen finished runner-up to Vettel in both 2012 and '13, and claimed the best finish of his second spell at Ferrari in last year's race on a day the four-time title winner endured one of his off-days, running off the track on several occasions en route to fifth.

With Ferrari still not quite close enough to topple Mercedes on raw pace alone, Vettel will need all the points he can muster to give himself the best chance of pipping Hamilton and Rosberg to the 2016 title.

Should the German find himself behind in the opening stages, we're expecting Vettel to waste little time pressuring Ferrari into demoting Raikkonen into the rear-gunner role he adopted so impressively prior to his retirement in Australia, leaving Seb to register his fourth victory for the Prancing Horse.

For Sergio Perez, the Australian Grand Prix was a missed opportunity.

He had been particularly excited after qualifying ninth—the highest position a driver can start and have a free choice of tyre compound for the first stint—telling Force India's official website that missing out on Q3 offered him "many more options in terms of the strategy."

Yet the race itself was disastrous for Checo, who after a poor start spent the opening phase of the race behind Fernando Alonso. He made his one and only pit stop just prior the red-flag stoppage—which cost him track position and ruined his strategy—before nursing overheating brakes to 13th place.

His post-race comment to the team's official website that it wasn't "an ideal start" to 2016 was the understatement of the season so far, but the demands of Bahrain should offer Perez a chance to bounce back immediately.

The retention of the widely unpopular elimination-style qualifying format—which sees drivers eliminated up to ninth place in Q2, rather than 11th under the previous system—could allow Force India to repeat their Saturday showing in Sakhir.

With a Mercedes engine on a circuit featuring four long straights, missing out on Q3 would be a more difficult task than actually reaching the top-eight shootout. But with no guarantee that the elimination format will continue beyond this race, there is seemingly nothing to stop Force India entering qualifying with the sole aim of securing ninth.

Should the team again manoeuvre their cars into the so-called golden positions in qualifying, the stage will be set for Perez to right the wrongs of Albert Park and utilise his celebrated tyre-preservation skills in the race on a rear-limited track with an abrasive surface.

The Mexican claimed the most important result of his career in Bahrain with a podium in 2014—just three races after being deemed unworthy of a McLaren seat—and referred to his eighth-place finish in the 2015 event as "one of the best races" of his career, per Motorsport.com's Adam Cooper.

Another big result could be in store for Perez this weekend.

With year-old Ferrari powertrains at their disposal, there is an emphasis on Scuderia Toro Rosso to score plenty of points in the first half of the season before the four engine manufacturers further develop their 2016-specification units.

With that comes a great deal of pressure for them to take their chances, and for a team who've rarely competed under that sort of expectation in their 10-year existence, the potential for mistakes and missed opportunities is obvious.

Perhaps that was what we witnessed in Australia, where Toro Rosso had both cars in the top five at one stage only to be left with three points and a moody teenager at the chequered flag.

Questionable strategic decisions and a lack of communication were behind Max Verstappen's mid-race rant, and he continued to voice his frustration after the event, claiming he no longer cares how Toro Rosso use team orders as he will usually be "miles ahead" of team-mate Carlos Sainz Jr., per Motorsport.com's Jonathan Noble.

After their promising pace in Melbourne, it will be fascinating to observe how Toro Rosso's ageing engine will affect their position in the pecking order at a more conventional circuit, with Verstappen telling Noble that Bahrain "will be a bit more difficult."

Even so, the STR11 should still be capable of qualifying around the fringes of the top 10, meaning the Toro Rossos will not only be close together on the track, but will be exposed to the risk of early incidents at a particularly tight first corner and a twisty second sector, which can funnel the cars into a single-file order.

Following the arguments of Albert Park, however, Verstappen and Sainz are sure to be unwilling to concede an inch, and the shenanigans team principal Franz Tost has feared since pre-season may play out between the pair on the opening lap.

Ahead of the Australian Grand Prix, we predicted that one of the drivers would not make the start of the race.

Although we got the identity of that driver completely and utterly wrong—Red Bull's Daniil Kvyat was the unlucky one forced to spend the season opener on the sidelines—the Russian's failure to start meant that only once in the last seven Australian grands prix has a full allocation of cars began the race.

Since the V6 turbo regulations were introduced, that early-season unreliability has trickled into the second race of a given campaign, with Sergio Perez and Will Stevens failing to start the Malaysian GP in 2014 and '15, respectively.

While the Malaysian heat will be reserved until October this year, we're expecting the dreaded DNS label to reappear in Bahrain and affect a team who seem to be a step behind their rivals in almost every aspect.

Twelve months after they claimed a fifth-place finish in Australia, there is no joy to be found at Sauber, whose new C35 car was delayed until the final pre-season test before encountering more financial problems—as reported by Autosport's Lawrence Barretto—and losing their technical director just days before the first race.

Bearing the brunt of that misfortune is Marcus Ericsson, who lost his rear-right wheel without warning in testing before being handed a drive-through penalty at Albert Park due to a difficult-to-remove tyre blanket ahead of the restart.

A drivetrain problem eventually put the Swede out of his misery, but that misery will return in Bahrain, where his blue-and-yellow Sauber will be stuck in the garage with a terminal technical issue as his peers take their positions on the starting grid.

On the subject of misery...

Last year's Bahrain Grand Prix was where McLaren's difficulties with their new Honda power unit crossed the divide between normal teething problems and more serious, fundamental issues.

While Fernando Alonso drove well to equal the team's best result of the season with 11th, Jenson Button was left to wonder why he even bothered turning up at Sakhir after failing to set a time in qualifying and failing to start the race.

The sight of Button's MP4-30 being rolled away into the Sakhir shadows as the Mercedes and Ferrari cars zoomed past seemed to encapsulate McLaren's entire season, and we're expecting the 2016 Bahrain race to offer a similarly accurate snapshot.

The idea this year is that McLaren are better, but not by much, and that rang perfectly true in Australia as Button finished one lap behind the race-winning Mercedes exactly 12 months after finishing two laps behind the race-winning Mercedes.

On the evidence of the FIA's Australian GP qualifying data, which shows only Daniil Kvyat and Max Verstappen were slower than Button and Alonso in the speed trap at Albert Park, straight-line pace remains the team's biggest weakness.

And on a circuit featuring those four long straights, in a season McLaren's rivals—Renault, Sauber, Haas and, yes, even Manor—all have either genuinely competitive or much-improved engines, that weakness could be brutally exposed in Bahrain.

Elimination from Q1 will be followed by a race of pain, leading to the return of crisis calls after a winter spent trying to look on the bright side.

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