NY Coronavirus Deaths Expected To Peak This Week

NEW YORK — According to an update of a coronavirus projection model used by the White House, New York's coronavirus outbreak is peaking. The model predicted the state's use of hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators would peak Wednesday and the daily death count will peak Thursday.

The change in peak projection was reflected in Gov. Andrew Cuomo's "mixed emotions" at Wednesday's daily briefing. While the state saw a record of 779 deaths in a single day, breaking the previous high of 731 on Tuesday, Cuomo said that the upward curve in hospitalizations was flattening.

"It's not a time to get complacent," Cuomo said, stressing for the public to continue the social distancing measures outlined in the statewide stay-at-home order.

But the model created by the Institute of Health Metrics at Seattle's University of Washington and called "America's most influential coronavirus model" by The Washington Post still shows a grim outlook.

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The model uses the expected peak of infections and demands for medical resources to update the models. Data is pulled from government agencies, hospital networks and other sources, like the World Health Organization.

As of Wednesday, New York is short 9,617 hospital beds and 5,173 ICU beds. The model also shows 5,008 ventilators are needed.

The institute's model also predicts the peak of deaths in one day will be about 780 deaths on Thursday. This is just one fewer death that the single-day record set by New York. A total of 13,307 COVID-19 deaths are projected by Aug. 4, though the predicted range goes as high as 21,826.

Currently there are 149,316 cases of the coronavirus across 52 counties in New York.

"So we have to remain diligent, we have to remain disciplined going forward," Cuomo said. "There's no doubt that we are now bending the curve and there's no doubt that we can't stop doing what we're doing."

The institute's predictions, which have been referenced by members of the White House to determine the national reaction, indicate the national coronavirus infection peak would come in mid-April, when the nationwide supply of hospital beds for COVID-19 patients would fall 36,000 short of the supply and the supply of intensive care beds would fall short by nearly 16,000.

On the peak day of April 15, the model estimates there will be more than 3,100 deaths nationwide. More than 81,000 deaths are likely across the United States by August. The model's low estimate of deaths across the country is 50,000; the high estimate is 136,000.

Despite these numbers, some leaders say the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is painting an overly rosy estimate of the likely future of the crisis. The analysis conflicts with many others showing higher death rates and more drastic equipment shortages, The Washington Post reported Tuesday, noting some state leaders are growing "increasingly concerned" about how the federal government's usage of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's "lower estimates."

The authors of the research article containing the findings wrote that its estimate of 81 thousand deaths over the next four months "is an alarming number, but this number could be substantially higher if excess demand for health system resources is not addressed and if social distancing policies are not vigorously implemented and enforced across all states."

In making projections for individual states, the institute took note of whether and when the states issued stay-at-home orders, closed schools, closed other nonessential services and imposed travel bans.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the faces of the Trump administration's coronavirus task force, has said the U.S. could experience between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths from COVID-19.

"We're going to have millions of cases," Fauci said during an appearance on CNN's "State of the Union." Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, noted that projections are subject to change, given that the disease's outbreak is "such a moving target."