After adding over 61,000 new cases on Mar. 31, the U.S. now has more than 30,000,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 540,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise at a steady rate. In the past week, there were an average of 17.4 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 16.2 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While COVID-19 has spread to nearly every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between different neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

In the 50 largest metro areas, the incidence of coronavirus grew at an average rate of 19.3 new cases a day per 100,000 residents in the past week — 14.5% greater than the case growth in all counties outside of metro areas.

The Cape Girardeau, MO-IL, metro area consists of Cape Girardeau County, Bollinger County, and Alexander County. In the past week, there were an average of 4.2 new coronavirus cases every day per 100,000 Cape Girardeau residents, less than the national figure. The metro area’s average daily case growth in the most recent week is a decrease from the week prior, when there were an average of 117.7 daily new cases per 100,000 Cape Girardeau residents.

The spread of coronavirus depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Cape Girardeau metro area, COVID-19 is growing the slowest in Bollinger County. There were an average of 3.8 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in Bollinger County during the past week, the least of the three counties in Cape Girardeau with available data.

Case growth in the Cape Girardeau metro area is relatively uniform at the county level. In Cape Girardeau County, for example, there were an average of 4.3 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in the past week — the most of any county in Cape Girardeau yet relatively in line with the case growth rate in Bollinger County.

While Bollinger County has the slowest case growth in the Cape Girardeau area, it does not have the lowest incidence of cases overall. As of Mar. 31, there were a total of 9,210.6 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents in Bollinger County, the second fewest of the three counties in the metro area. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 9,248.6 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In Bollinger County, unemployment peaked at 9.6% in April 2020. As of January 2021, the county’s unemployment rate was 5.0%.

To determine the county in every metropolitan area where COVID-19 is growing the slowest, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked counties according to the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the seven days ending Mar. 31. To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is not seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in Missouri where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).

Rank in MSA	County	Population	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending Mar. 31	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending Mar. 24	Cumulative cases per 100,000	Cumulative deaths per 100,000
1	Bollinger County	12,225	3.8	45.2	9,210.6	98.2
2	Alexander County	6,260	3.9	0.0	7,284.3	159.7
3	Cape Girardeau County	78,491	4.3	138.4	11,327.4	166.9

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