IL Coronavirus Peak Likely In Coming Days, New Projection Shows

ILLINOIS — A coronavirus projection model used by the White House issued an update about when the virus is expected to peak in Illinois and how many people could die.
As of Wednesday, the influential model, developed by the Institute for Health Metrics, now predicts COVID-19 will kill 1,588 residents in Illinois.

The outlook is much more optimistic than what was predicted a week ago. On March 30, the Seattle-based institute, affiliated with the University of Washington and supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, forecast 2,360 Illinoisans would lose their lives due to the coronavirus.

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The latest model predicts the coronavirus outbreak will peak on April 12, which is also Easter Sunday, in Illinois. On that day, 91 people are expected to die. That is not far off from the number of new deaths reported on Wednesday, when 89 lost their lives to the coronavirus in Illinois, state health officials said, the highest death rate over a 24-hour period so far.

State health officials in Illinois have said cases are expected to peak in mid- to late-April.

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So far, 462 people have died because of coronavirus in Illinois, and more than 15,000 have tested positive for the virus.

On the other side of the graph, the researchers show the deaths per day trending downward for the rest of April, and finally hitting no new coronavirus deaths per day on May 3.

The analysis, which The Washington Post called "America's most influential coronavirus model," bases its updated projections on the expected peak of infections in each state and the number of hospital beds, intensive-care beds and ventilators available for COVID-19 patients when most needed.

The institute's predictions, which have been referenced by members of the White House to determine the national reaction, indicate the national coronavirus infection peak would come in mid-April, when the nationwide supply of hospital beds for COVID-19 patients would fall 36,000 short and the supply of intensive-care beds would fall short by nearly 16,000.

On the peak day of April 15, the model estimates there will be more than 3,100 deaths nationwide. More than 81,000 deaths are likely across America by August. The model's low estimate of deaths across the country is 50,000; the high estimate is 136,000.

Some leaders say the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is painting an overly optimistic estimate of the likely future of the crisis. The analysis conflicts with many others showing higher death rates and more drastic equipment shortages, the Washington Post reported Tuesday, noting some state leaders are growing "increasingly concerned" about the federal government using the institute's "lower estimates."

The authors of the research article containing the findings wrote that its estimate of 81 thousand deaths over the next four months "is an alarming number, but this number could be substantially higher if excess demand for health system resources is not addressed and if social distancing policies are not vigorously implemented and enforced across all states."

In making projections for individual states, the institute took note of whether and when the states issued stay-at-home orders, closed schools, closed other non-essential services and imposed travel bans.

In Illinois, all schools were closed on March 17, and all of the state's non-essential services were ordered closed March 21. A statewide stay-at-home order was instituted on March 21.

"The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths," the authors wrote.

The authors note that the present forecast only covers the next four months and does not predict how many deaths there could be "if there is a resurgence at a later point or if social distancing is not fully implemented and maintained," the authors said.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the faces of the Trump administration's coronavirus task force, has said the U.S. could experience between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths from COVID-19.

"We're going to have millions of cases," Fauci said during an appearance on CNN's "State of the Union." Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, noted that projections are subject to change, given that the outbreak is "such a moving target."

The full analysis is available online here.

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