Predicting and Ranking the NBA's Top 10 Big 3s This Season

After covering the NBA's top duos, it's time to dig a little deeper.

Adding a third player makes this exercise more complex. It introduces new layers by making fit and balance larger concerns. The interplay between pairs is simpler than it is with trios. As a result, we'll place a higher value on skill sets that don't leave gaps; the best three-man units have complementary games that add up to more than the sum of their parts.

Talent is still key, and it's only gotten trickier to weigh that against the new factors just mentioned. There will be cases where three-man units that don't mesh perfectly outrank some that make more intuitive sense as collectives.

Some of these forecasts will be purely speculative, as several groups haven't played together prior to this season. In contrast, some of the highest-ranking teammates have extensive track records of success that make it much easier to justify their spots on the list.

Finally, the whole point of putting together a team's core is to win games. So don't be upset when trios from middling and low-end squads fail to make the cut. If what amounts to 60 percent of a team's starting lineup can't put a bunch of wins on the board, it's probably not good enough to consider in the first place.

Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic

Dame and CJ weren't quite good enough to make the top duos list, and Nurkic's inclusion couldn't nudge them over the top. These three are nails on offense, but two small guards and a center who has to play drop coverage make for tough sledding on D.

Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis and Josh Richardson

Luka Doncic has the inside track for MVP because he's a generational talent coming into his own. But it also helps that his top teammates have, respectively, legitimate injury concerns and clear role-player makeups. Kristaps Porzingis could make this look like a mistake if he's in top form upon his return from a torn meniscus, and Josh Richardson adds a badly needed defensive element, but this Mavs trio has to prove it's more than "Luka and some other guys."

Houston Rockets: James Harden, John Wall and Christian Wood

You've got to admit those names look nice together. Too bad James Harden won't finish the year with the Houston Rockets, John Wall is a massive health risk and Christian Wood has yet to prove he can matter to a consistent winner.

Indiana Pacers: Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner and Victor Oladipo

The Indiana Pacers never get any love, but it's just too hard to argue these three warrant top-10 inclusion. The fit between Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner will inspire trade speculation until a deal eventually gets done to break them up, and in addition to his own uncertain future with the team, Victor Oladipo has to demonstrate full health after two mostly lost seasons. 

Phoenix Suns: Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton

If Devin Booker leads the league in scoring, Chris Paul continues his renaissance and Deandre Ayton blows up in his third season, apologies will be in order. This was, by far, the toughest omission from the top 10. But we haven't seen this group together before, and there's just enough downside potential tied to Paul's longevity that the Suns' three best players narrowly fail to crack the list.

The No. 10 spot came down to the Utah Jazz and Phoenix Suns, with the former ultimately prevailing because of Chris Paul's age and the potentially controversial notion that Bojan Bogdanovic is a more impactful player than Deandre Ayton.

That last part could come back to haunt this prediction. An Ayton breakout wouldn't be a shock.

Here we are, though, with a Jazz trio composed of a rising offensive star, a perennial DPOY candidate and an unsung offensive star who holds up reasonably well on defense.

Donovan Mitchell averaged 36.3 points in Utah's seven playoff games last season, establishing himself as an offense on his own. We can't expect that again, but Mitchell seems like a sure All-Star who'll flirt with an All-NBA nod if he continues his trajectory. The league values dynamic playmaking scorers more than any other position, and Mitchell is already among the best in the game.

Gobert's resume speaks for itself. He's a two-time DPOY winner whose mobility allows him to survive outside of drop coverage. When the other team doesn't have a ball-handler who can punish him for staying in the lane in the pick-and-roll, points are basically impossible to come by against the Jazz. When Mitchell loses focus or Bogdanovic is a bit overmatched by high-end wings, Gobert is there to clean everything up.

Bogdanovic's inclusion will surprise some people, particularly with Mike Conley's bigger name commanding attention. But the 31-year-old forward is one of only five players over the last two seasons to average at least 19.0 points on 41.0 percent shooting in a sample of over 2,000 minutes. He's an ideal gap-filler whose quick decisions and willingness to fire away keeps the Jazz's offense humming.

If there's a reason this particular trio should be controversial, it's because Utah had four of the top six three-man units last season—and this wasn't one of them. It ranked a respectable 11th, at plus-7.4 points per 100 possessions.

We're all aware of the fit issues between Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, most of which stem from the latter's unwillingness to shoot jumpers, but some of which arise because Embiid clogs up Simmons' driving lanes.

Despite cramped floors and the occasionally ugly "two guys in the same spot" traffic jams, Simmons and Embiid have generally outscored opponents when sharing the floor. Tobias Harris' spacing and high assist rates for a forward have also been helpful in ungumming the works.

In fact, the idea that the Philadelphia 76ers core is inherently flawed has been overblown for a while.

Last year was a mess, but Simmons, Embiid and Harris led the 76ers to a plus-3.1 net rating when sharing the floor. Remove lineups that included Al Horford, and that figure climbed to plus-8.0. With fewer ultra-big lineups in the offing and lights-out shooting from Danny Green and Seth Curry, the Sixers should get even better numbers from their three best players.

Though neither JJ Redick nor Jimmy Butler is still around, we should expect something along the lines of 2018-19, when the Embiid-Simmons-Harris triumvirate produced a plus-14.3 net rating.

Embiid's health is a factor, Simmons will always be a frustrating star, and Harris could have a career year and still be grossly overpaid. But these three players have a history of working well together, are set up to succeed and should be more motivated than ever to prove themselves. With noted wheeler and dealer Daryl Morey in charge, this may be their last chance.

Kemba Walker's bum knee is too big of a question mark to overlook. Until we see him return and play like the All-Star guard he was prior to hitting the shelf midway through the 2019-20 season, the Boston Celtics will have to be content with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart making up their entry on this list.

It's a testament to the Celtics' top-end talent that they still rank in the top 10, despite the absence of a max player from their star trio.

Tatum is the ascendant superstar, already an All-NBA honoree with ample room to improve as he adds strength and develops his finishing craft. Brown is an ideal secondary weapon, capable of defending multiple positions on defense and changing the game with his athleticism. Critically, he's content to slot in behind Tatum in the pecking order. The gap between the two young wings isn't as wide as many think, so Brown's willingness to accept his role should be celebrated.

Smart is the wild card—a flop-happy defensive irritant with five-position switchability and outsized confidence. He'll take a few more high-leverage threes than the Celtics might like, but Smart's dynamite defense and always-on intensity are worth the tradeoff.

If you're into offense, this is the Big Three for you.

Nikola Jokic is a human layup-generator. With eyes (including the ones on the back of his head) constantly scanning the floor and brain processing cutting angles and passing lanes before they even appear, he infuses the Denver Nuggets' attack with constant bucket-seeking motion. Whether slinging backdoor dimes past the noggins of unwitting defenders or firing full-court touchdowns to teammates streaking up the floor, Jokic is as generous as superstars come.

We should also note he's a dominant three-level scorer who appears to be in the best shape of his career.

Jamal Murray works a slick two-man game with Jokic, darting toward the big man for handoffs and working in tandem to form a nasty pick-and-pop combo. The 2020 postseason also proved Murray can get his own shots just fine, thank you very much. He put up 26.5 points per game on 62.6 percent true shooting in the 2019-20 playoffs and should take a significant step forward during his fifth NBA season.

Michael Porter Jr. might be an even more skilled individual scorer than Murray. He put up 20.4 points per 36 minutes on a 50.9/42.2/83.3 shooting split as a rookie and now has a firm grip on a starting gig in his second season. At 6'10", Porter's high release and easy stroke make him a deadly spacer. It's almost unfair that he's quick off the bounce and already has an excellent nose for rebounds.

Last season, Jokic, Murray and Will Barton posted a plus-9.3 net rating together, the fourth-best figure among trios that played at least 1,000 minutes. With Porter's added scoring punch and the potential for career seasons from Jokic and Murray, these guys might top that number.

The defense might not be any good, but there'll be points aplenty.

As with Denver, the raw scoring punch of the Brooklyn Nets' three-man entry is potent enough for us to ignore some pretty clear skill-set overlap.

Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert are bucket-getters to their cores. Each one is wired in score-first fashion and programmed to seek his own offense before deferring. Sure, maybe that leaves a few important areas, like defense, wanting. But the hardest thing to do on a basketball court is generate efficient offense without help.

All three of these guys can do that.

Being the youngest and least experienced, LeVert faces the most questions. He's best on the ball but may find fewer opportunities than ever to operate within his comfort zone. Spencer Dinwiddie's partially torn ACL will keep him on the shelf for some or all of the season, which means LeVert will feature as a starter and spend more time with KD and Kyrie than originally planned.

Can he find ways to be as effective in that role as he was when running his own show down the stretch last year?

That's one question among many for Brooklyn. We can't forget the ones posed by Durant's return from a torn Achilles or Irving's long list of health issues, but at some point, the talent is simply too great to ignore.

This is that point.

This ranking is mostly theoretical. But if you've got to put your faith in an untested group, it's nice when two-thirds of it is made up by complete two-way superstar wings.

Serge Ibaka just has to hit a few threes, make the right pass as a roll man and bother some shots for this thing to work. Even if Paul George entered this season without any reps alongside Ibaka, it's encouraging that the veteran big man and Leonard have a history of success together.

They won the 2019 title with the Toronto Raptors, producing a plus-6.4 net rating together that season.

Leonard has been in MVP consideration nearly every year for more than a half-decade, while George finished third in voting after the 2018-19 season. All three of L.A.'s trio can shoot it from deep, and all three are plus defenders—with Leonard and George residing in the absolute top tier on that end.

Last year's playoff collapse means the Los Angeles Clippers' stars are stuck with the disappointment label until they change the narrative. Consider this a bet they'll succeed in that effort.

You could probably pick someone off the street, team him up with LeBron James and Anthony Davis and still get a top-10 trio. That third spot doesn't have to produce much with a pair of MVP candidates in the mix.

Montrezl Harrell is considerably better than some random addition, having won Sixth Man of the Year as a member of the Los Angeles Clippers in 2019-20. The high-scoring big man makes for an odd fit here, as he might not share much court time with L.A.'s big guns. The Lakers will close most critical games with Davis at the 5 and LeBron at the 4, which leaves Harrell as the odd man out.

They've logged just four total minutes together during the Lakers' first three games.

Here's the thing, though: L.A. is embarking on a title defense with a superstar playing his 18th season after a "blink and you missed it" offseason. James will need ample rest, whether that comes in the form of trimmed minute totals or frequent nights off. Harrell is the basketball equivalent of an innings-eater, a serviceable (that's a compliment) option who can keep the team afloat with his energy and scoring against second units. He'll go to work when Davis and James need a breather.

That's not quite the same kind of synergy as we'll see from some other Big Threes. But framed that way, Harrell really does fill a meaningful role in this group.

Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam are the only three-man unit on this list to win a ring together, and that has to count for something.

Sure, Kawhi Leonard had plenty to do with the Toronto Raptors' 2019 title. But these three put up a plus-7.6 net rating together last year and, lest we forget, managed an obscene plus-21.2 in 684 non-garbage-time possessions without Kawhi during that championship season.

Lowry is the cagiest vet around and still competes with an intensity you'd more readily associate with a first-year guard trying to earn a two-way deal. He's been an All-Star in six straight seasons and actually scored more efficiently last year than in 2018-19, despite upping his usage rate to compensate for Leonard's absence. He'll be hitting dagger threes and suckering big men into fouling him until he's 40.

VanVleet and Lowry are kindred competitive spirits. The younger Raptors guard is an even more dangerous high-volume three-point shooter and is Lowry's equal as an irascible defensive pest. Though both guards are undersized, neither has any trouble putting the clamps on opponents at either backcourt position.

Siakam develops new wrinkles to his game every season. He followed up Most Improved honors in 2018-19 with an All-NBA berth last year. Though his rapidly developing "get your own" offensive game stalled in the playoffs, we should expect Siakam's remarkable growth to continue in his fifth season.

All three of these players impact the game on both ends, and all three can function on or off the ball on offense. Maybe there are more objectively talented groups, but none have better balance, and none have the sheer volume of reps together at the highest levels of competition. 

We know head coach Nick Nurse will deploy Lowry, VanVleet and Siakam optimally. We know their professionalism, experience and focus are beyond question. There's just nothing to doubt with these guys, with the possible exception of Lowry's ability to remain an All-Star at age 34.

Then again, if he slides, OG Anunoby is right there waiting to ascend. One way or the other, Toronto is going to have a phenomenal Big Three.

Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson made up the best high-usage three-man unit in the league last season. When sharing the floor, which they did for 1,095 total minutes in 2019-20, these three helped the Miami Heat produce a plus-11.7 net rating, more than two full points per 100 possessions ahead of the second-best group with at least 1,000 minutes.

That makes sense if you think about it.

Butler is the classic wing star (minus the three-point shot), Adebayo guards everything that moves and sets up teammates better than most centers, and Robinson's elite three-point shooting spaces the floor so the whole operation runs cleanly. The fit and balance are undeniable; each member of this trio shores up the others' weaknesses and augments the others' strengths.

Maybe the Heat's Finals appearance still seems fluky to you. It's true Jae Crowder shot the lights out in the bubble, and Goran Dragic de-aged by about 10 years until going down with a foot injury. But there was nothing anomalous about Butler, Adebayo and Robinson consistently running up huge scoring advantages whenever they were on the court.

It's possible Butler will take a step back in his age-31 season, but Robinson and Adebayo are still on the upswing. Don't be surprised if this trifecta is right back near the top of the league in net rating again.

The Milwaukee Bucks may not have much depth, but they've got the league's best top-three talent.

And it's not particularly close.

Start with the two-time MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo. Actually, we could end there. Giannis is a regular-season destroyer—a stat-mongering downhill force who puts relentless pressure on defenses with his half-court drives and transition attacks. Though his postseason effectiveness could benefit from some variety (and the ability to make threes and free throws), the last two regular seasons have shown there's no more productive player in the league.

If Antetokounmpo has a weakness beyond his perimeter game, it's his struggle to wrangle quick guards off the ball. At his size and length, Antetokounmpo is eminently screenable, which makes it difficult for him to handle smaller, quicker players who spend their time dipping and diving around screens. That's far from his main responsibility, and Giannis did deservedly win DPOY last year, so the term "weakness" is obviously relative. We're just raising that to illustrate how perfectly Middleton and Holiday complement the back-to-back MVP.

Middleton was a bucket or two away from a 50-40-90 season in 2019-20. As volume scorers go, he's as efficient as they come. A two-time All-Star, Middleton is a panic-inducing threat as a floor-spacer but can also punish smaller wings with polished mid-post scoring. Also a capable defender, Middleton is as effective as any star wing can be without top-tier athleticism.

Holiday is among the game's best backcourt defenders, and he'll slot into Eric Bledsoe's vacated role as Milwaukee's designated on-ball harasser. Though he can slide up to defend 2s and most 3s, expect Holiday to be most disruptive at the point of attack. His ability to power over and through screens means he's where pick-and-rolls go to die. If the Bucks need someone to deny a dangerous scorer off the ball, he'll handle that, too.

Don't forget Holiday's contributions on offense. He's averaged at least 19.0 points per game three years running and is grossly overqualified as a third option. If he and Giannis develop some pick-and-roll chemistry with Middleton working some weak-side action, nobody's stopping the Bucks this year.

It should go without saying nobody will score on them either.