Image by annie spratt on unsplash
Image by annie spratt on unsplash

Historical lags between climate change and ice-melt suggest sea level rise may continue for millennia

Embargoed until: Publicly released:
Peer-reviewed: This work was reviewed and scrutinised by relevant independent experts.

Simulation/modelling: This type of study uses a computer simulation or mathematical model to predict an outcome. The original values put into the model may have come from real-world measurements (eg: past spread of a disease used to model its future spread).

Climate researchers have found evidence for significant lags between major shifts in global temperature and changes to the size of Greenland’s ice sheet throughout ancient history. These delays suggest that current trends in global warming may cause sea levels to rise for thousands of years, even if we manage to stop or reverse human-induced climate change immediately. Researchers modelled changes to the size of Greenland ice sheet between the last interglacial period (125 millennia ago) to the year 2100. Their simulation shows that the Greenland ice sheet continued to gain mass for several thousand years after it reached its coldest conditions (26 millennia ago), and it continued to lose mass for several thousand years after its warmest period (8 millennia ago). More recently, after a cool period between the mid-Holocene and the industrial era, the ice sheet gained mass for more than a century following the beginning of human-induced global warming in 1850. The authors say this slow response needs to be represented in ice sheet simulations in order to predict ice mass loss, and therefore sea level rise, accurately.

Journal/conference: PLOS ONE

Link to research (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1371/journal

Organisation/s: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research

Funder: This work was supported through grant (Global sea level change since the Mid Holocene: Background trends and climate-ice sheet feedbacks) from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) as part of the Special Priority Program (SPP)-1889 ‘Regional Sea Level Change and Society’ (SeaLevel). C.Rodehacke has been financed through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Bundesministerium fur Bildung und Forschung: BMBF) project ZUWEISS (grant agreement 01LS1612A) and through the National Centre for Climate Research (NCFK, Nationalt Center for Klimaforskning) provided by the Danish State. H.Y., S.X. and X.L are partly funded by the open fund of State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, CAS (SKLLQG1920). Development of PISM is supported by NASA grant NNX17AG65G and NSF grants PLR-1603799 and PLR-1644277.

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