Southwest PA Best-Case, Worst-Case Coronavirus Case Projections

SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA — If moderate social distancing measures continue, the five-county region of southwestern Pennsylvania could see 264,000 cases of coronavirus by mid-June, an analysis shows.

However, if the most severe control measures are maintained, that number could be limited to 3,200 with a peak in the late summer. That's the conclusion of Columbia University researchers as reported by the New York Times, which compiled maps showing the estimated spread of the virus in every county in America under varying scenarios for control measures.

Here's how this projected best case scenario would look at the county level:

• Allegheny County: 1,800 cases, 0.2 percent infection rate.

• Westmoreland County: 1,000 cases, 0.3 percent infection fate.

• Washington County: 700 cases, 0.4 percent infection rate.

• Butler County: 300 cases, 0.1 percent infection rate.

• Beaver County: 300 cases, 0.2 percent infection rate.

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They are rough estimates, analysts note. They are "inherently uncertain," so they should not be taken as more than a best guess. But perhaps most importantly, those numbers represent a best case scenario.

Under the study's middle ground scenario, where moderate, but not strict control measures are maintained, all of southwestern Pennsylvania would peak in early July. The moderate scenario has the peak number at an estimated 264,000 cases, with the following county breakdown:

• Allegheny County: 150,000 cases, 12 percent infection rate.

• Westmoreland County: 37,000 cases, 10 percent infection rate.

• Washington County:29,000 cases, 14 percent infection rate.

• Beaver County: 25,000 cases, 14 percent infection rate.

• Butler County: 23,000 cases, 12 percent infection rate.

Gov. Tom Wolf's stay at home order now includes these 22 Pennsylvania counties: Allegheny, Beaver, Berks, Bucks, Butler, Centre, Chester, Delaware, Erie, Lackawanna, Lancaster, Lehigh, Luzerne, Monroe, Montgomery, Northampton, Philadelphia, Pike, Washington, Wayne, Westmoreland and York counties. The order is in effect at least through April 6.

But social distancing in the U.S. isn't as easy as telling everyone to stay home, said Mary Travis Bassett, director of the FXB Center for Health and Human Rights at Harvard University.

"The United States has particular vulnerabilities that make it possible that we'll have the worse coronavirus epidemic of all," Bassett said, citing the country's health, economic and social inequalities.

"These inequalities... mean that we are both more susceptible and more likely to have people who are not going to follow the public health advice of social distancing, hand-washing and seeking prompt medical care because they risk their livelihood," Bassett said.

She added that many low-wage workers in the health care sector can't afford to miss a day of pay or take a sick day.

"The infusion of financial support to people who are no longer working is absolutely critical," Bassett said, "People are not going to stay home and not feed their families."