MANAMA, Bahrain and DUBAI — Political leaders from the Saudi-led Arab coalition say that operations in Yemen have entered their final stage.

Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir and his Yemeni counterpart expressed optimism last week at the International Institute of Strategic Studies' (IISS) Manama Dialogue in Bahrain over the Saudi-led coalition's military operations. and said that the conflict was entering "its final phase."

"I would say, and I'm an optimist by nature, that the Yemeni conflict has entered its final stage," Al-Jubier said in Manama. "We look forward and hope for a stable nation and a prosperous Yemen."

Saudi Arabia has been leading a coalition of Arab countries including The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Sudan, Jordan and Morocco have joined the Saudi-led air campaign targeting Houthi militias since March.

In October, Sudan presented 500 special operations forces experienced in mountain warfare.

"The Houthis' and former President Ali Abdullah Saleh have accepted the UN Security Council resolution 2216 and the re-opening of Yemeni ports by coalition forces were good signs that the country was ready to enter the resolution phase of the conflict," Al-Jubeir said. "Legitimate government forces are now in control of the vast majority of Yemeni territory. There still remain some areas that need to be liberated, including Sanaa, but the trend is moving in the right direction." he added.

Al-Jubeir stressed that the Houthis are welcome to join future peace talks, but said they should not make up the bulk of representatives.

"The Houthis and the Yemenis have every right to be part of the Yemen political process, we have said that from the very beginning. The only thing they cannot have is a privileged position because that would distinguish them from other Yemenis, and that would not be fair," Jubeir said.

On Nov. 2, the UAE armed forces announced a second batch of soldiers are preparing to perform new duties in Yemen as part of the Saudi-led Arab coalition. The General Command of the UAE Armed Forces said the rotation of soldiers will see the first batch replaced by another as part of Operation Restoring Hope.

Despite the optimism expressed at the Manama Dialogue, senior analysts said that the war in Yemen seems far from over.

"I believe that with the Houthis, the story is yet to begin," said Maxim Shepovalenko from the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST). "What we saw until lately was barely a preface to it.

"In my view, Houthies, as all Yemenis, are born to be fighters and they ... are operating basically within their native territory, or in a wider context, the territory they can exercise control of, i.e. the Northern Yemen. They turned out to be no less professional than the Hezbollah and therefore would be a hard nut to crack in the mountain environment. To say nothing about Iran's covert — and perhaps overt — assistance," he said.

Shepovalenko added that the Saudi-led coalition finds itself under significant time pressure, since the Saudis have already unsealed their currency reserves. With the current tempo and cost of operations, they could run critically short of funds in the next five years.

"On the contrary, the Houthis could sustain long enough, as evidenced by their belligerency since 2004," he said.

Shepovalenko said he rather considers the declarations of Al-Jubair and his Yemeni counterpart as sort of a self-cheering mantra or wishful thinking.

Yemen affairs expert Mareike Transfeld from Berlin-based think tank Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik echoed his assessment.

"I think these statements are grossly exaggerated," she said. "There seems to be somewhat of a push right now with military vehicles entering Taiz, Yemeni pilots being trained and more foreign troops from Sudan. But there seems to be a lot of misinformation by the GCC states on the front in Marib," she said.

"I doubt the Saudis are as successful here as they claim. Everything north of Taiz and Marib is still controlled by the Houthis. I think they are trying to improve their bargaining position with these statements before the talks in November," Transfeld added.

She said that If the talks fail and fighting continues, she said, it will be a great challenge to gain control of Sanaa.

According to Paul Sullivan, a professor at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C., total optimism in this circumstance does not seem solidified.

"The underlying reasons behind the conflict have not been resolved," he said. "Until they are, Yemen will remain unstable and unresolved," he said. "Winning one or even 100 battles tactically does not strategically win a war. The most difficult part of any war is what happens after the guns are silent. The guns will be not be completely silent any time soon." he stressed.

Sullivan added that once the guns are silent, Yemen as a post-conflict country needs to be developed with the creation of jobs and hope. Otherwise, he warns, the country will fall right back into conflict.

Email: amustafa@defensenews.com

Twitter: @awadz

Awad Mustafa was a Middle East and Africa correspondent for Defense News.

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