Realistic 2015 Expectations for Fernando Alonso After Bahrain Grand Prix

Fernando Alonso could only finish 11th in the 2015 Bahrain Grand Prix, but the two-time world champion probably took more enjoyment from last weekend's race than he did from the 2014 event.

Last year's Bahrain GP was one of the most miserable weekends of Alonso's disappointing five-year stint at Ferrari.

The Sakhir circuit's four long stretches brutally exposed the F14-T's lack of straight-line speed, and Alonso, having been out-qualified by new team-mate Kimi Raikkonen in what would prove to be a rare interteam victory for the Finn, was virtually nonexistent in the race.

While Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg, behind the wheel of the dominant Mercedes cars, embarked upon one of the most thrilling wheel-to-wheel battles of modern times—a scrap that, in another year and in another car, Alonso would have been part of—the Spaniard was left to trundle his way to 11th position.

Alonso ultimately finished more than 30 seconds behind race winner Hamilton—pitiful when you consider that a safety car period created a 10-lap sprint to the finish—but his race is memorable for what happened at the end of, rather than during, those painful 57 laps.

As he approached the finish line, Alonso raised his right arm from the cockpit as he had done so often throughout his Formula One career, for those 32 grands prix victories, for those 22 pole positions and for those two titles in 2005 and 2006.

But in offering that mock celebration, marking the addition of two measly points to his underwhelming 2014 tally, Alonso had ridiculed Ferrari, the holiest, most successful team in the sport's history, when they most needed his support.

And he had insulted the stalwarts of the Prancing Horse's past: Mr Enzo Ferrari himself, Juan Manuel Fangio, John Surtees, Niki Lauda, Gilles Villeneuve, Michael Schumacher, Jean Todt and Luca di Montezemolo, who—according to F1 journalist James Allen—didn't hang around long enough to witness Alonso's gesture.

Alonso would somehow record his first podium finish of 2014 in China the following weekend and come within two laps of winning the Hungarian Grand Prix in August.

But Bahrain was—after a period of gradual decline since he came within three points of winning the 2012 championship—the tipping point in the Alonso-Ferrari relationship, the moment when the Spaniard began to accept his third title wouldn't be achieved behind the wheel of a scarlet-red car.

Less than two months after Sakhir—"shortly after" it became clear Ferrari had failed in their pursuit of Red Bull Racing's Adrian Newey, claims F1 journalist Peter Windsor—Alonso "signed an option" with a view to joining McLaren-Honda, under the impression he would be heading for bigger and better things in 2015.

So far this season, however, that has proven to be far from the case, and it was saddening to observe Alonso scrambling to unlap himself from Raikkonen, driving a Ferrari that looks ever more worthy of a championship challenge, last weekend.

While Raikkonen, seemingly waiting for his career to be put out of its misery in 2014 after enduring his worst-ever season alongside Alonso, has been rejuvenated this season, coming within touching distance of victory in Bahrain, the Spaniard's career is effectively on hold for the foreseeable future as his new employers perform massage therapy on their problematic new power unit.

For the first time since his debut season with the lowly Minardi team in 2001, Alonso remains without a point to his name after the opening four races of the campaign. He is one of five drivers—his 2015 team-mate, Jenson Button, is among Alonso's fellow no-hopers—yet to score.

He was, though, behind McLaren's best result of the season thus far in Bahrain, scraping into Q2 and equalling Button's best finish of 2015 on merit in the race.

But the first public signs of frustration emerged in Bahrain as Alonso, as per Autosport's Jonathan Noble, called for a "very deep" investigation into the technical problems suffered by Button and telling Motorsport.com's Pablo Elizalde the team "have to raise the level" of reliability and performance in time for his home event, the Spanish Grand Prix, in mid-May.

McLaren are renowned for their intense rate of development—the team, for instance, began the 2009 season with one of the worst cars on the grid, yet recovered to win two GPs—and the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya race had long been targeted as the weekend that would transform the outfit's season.

But racing director Eric Boullier's recent warning to Motorsport.com that "modern" F1 dictates the team "cannot expect to take a big step" in Spain is likely to leave Alonso wondering just what he can salvage from yet another wasted season as his long and winding quest to secure that elusive third world title shows no sign of reaching its conclusion.

According to Autosport's Craig Scarborough, the new Honda power unit is "radical" and innovative, which should be to McLaren's advantage, but Alonso's 2015 prospects are completely dependent on when, or even if, the team can make the engine both reliable and powerful this season.

A possible saving grace for McLaren and Alonso is that each of the teams behind Williams, currently the third-fastest outfit, are yet to realise their true potential this season, highlighted by the 38-point gap between Williams and fourth-placed Red Bull Racing in the constructors' championship.

Should McLaren therefore make decent gains over the three-week break between Bahrain and Spain and fight among that packed midfield, Alonso could very quickly make up ground on the likes of Daniel Ricciardo and challenge for regular points positions, perhaps an occasional podium and a top-seven finish in the drivers' standings.

Conversely, McLaren, Alonso and Button could find themselves cut adrift if the team's woes continue into the mid-part and even the second half of 2015, Force India produce their long-awaited B-spec car, Renault up their game to the benefit of Red Bull and Toro Rosso, Sauber maintain their form, and Lotus' Pastor Maldonado cures his allergy of points.

Neither outcome will be what Fernando signed up for last December, but as he told The Guardian upon his signing by Ferrari in 2009: "Leaving Ferrari to change team is always a step backwards. It has to be a step backwards because Ferrari is more than a team."

Those words will come back to haunt Fernando if he's forced to pull over for Raikkonen and Sebastian Vettel throughout the rest of 2015.

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