Increase in Shia IED attacks in Bahrain heightens risk of Islamic State gaining support in kingdom

A Bahraini police officer drinks water while standing next to a riot police officer outside a Shia mosque in Manama, Bahrain, on 5 June 2015. Source: PA
Key Points

• An increased intensity in Shia militancy in Bahrain is exacerbating sectarian divisions and creating a fertile environment for the Islamic State to exploit.
• Increased Shia militancy is occurring at a time when prominent Bahraini Sunni militants fighting for the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq have called for attacks to be carried out in Bahrain. The Shia community, security forces, and bars and restaurants serving alcohol would be attractive targets for the group.
• Although Saudi Arabia's support means that the stability of Bahrain's al-Khalifa monarchy would not be threatened by the Islamic State, the group would be more capable than Shia militants to perpetrate attacks in central Manama.

EVENT
The most recent IED attack against security forces by Bahraini Shia militant groups risks increasing domestic support for the Islamic State among the country's Sunni population.

The 28 July bombing of a bus carrying police officers in the Shia area of Sitra, south of Bahrain's capital Manama, indicates that Shia militant groups are becoming increasingly operationally proficient. Although the improvised explosive device (IED) does not appear to have been any more sophisticated than in previous attacks, its placing on the bus marked a change in targeting. Further such attacks - even though they will probably be restricted to peripheral areas outside of central Manama - would be likely to increase anti-Shia sentiment among the kingdom's Sunni population, creating a space for the Islamic State to establish a foothold. As in Saudi Arabia, the Islamic State would be likely to prioritise attacks against the Shia population in order to exacerbate sectarian divisions, while avoiding attacks that would risk mass casualties of Bahraini Sunni civilians.

The Islamic State already has considerable support within Bahrain, and the group posted a video online in September 2014, in which a former Bahraini security official called on police and military personnel to join the group. More recently on 26 June, Turki Mubarak al-Binali, a prominent Syrian-based Bahraini militant and Islamic State ideologue, called for an attack in the kingdom on 3 July. Although no such attack occurred, the threat should not be dismissed. Turki al-Binali was one of 72 Bahrainis to have their citizenship revoked in January, while Islamic State militants have vehemently criticised the government for recent arrests of Bahrainis with alleged links to the group. Moreover, on 2 July, flyers featuring the Islamic State flag were discovered by local residents outside the Ain al-Dar al-Shimali mosque in the Jidhafs area of Bahrain.

Islamic State attacks in Bahrain would be likely to follow a similar pattern to those targeting the Shia in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia in May and June. The group has explicitly stated its aim to "clear" the Arabian Peninsula of Shia through the use of violence. Mosques would be a primary target, along with shops and marketplaces, as the group tries to maximise casualties.

In addition, there is a strong likelihood that the Islamic State would attack Bahraini security forces; as they have done on a number of occasions in Saudi Arabia. Much of Bahrain's police force is comprised of expatriates from Iraq, Jordan, Pakistan, Yemen, and elsewhere, and fatal attacks against these personnel would be unlikely to alienate Sunni Bahrainis. Such attacks would be intended to convince security personnel to defect to the Islamic State, rather than continue to serve the "apostate" al-Khalifa ruling family, or risk becoming a legitimate target. The Islamic State seeks to either intimidate security personnel, or secure their support, giving it greater operational freedom in the kingdom.

Another potential target set in Bahrain would be bars and restaurants. Bahrain has the most liberal alcohol regulations in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, with alcohol available in many restaurants, and not merely restricted to Western hotels. Such non-Islamic targets would be attractive targets for the Islamic State.

There is also the potential for the Islamic State to kidnap Westerners for execution, as occurred in Egypt when a Croatian national was kidnapped on 22 July and a video of his execution released on 12 August.

Islamic State capability less than in Saudi Arabia
As with Shia radicals, Islamic State sympathisers would be likely to be capable of making crude IEDs out of gas canisters and other readily available materials. Furthermore, any sympathisers they have cultivated in the security forces would be able to procure some more advanced materiel for use in IEDs. A third possibility is that explosives could be smuggled across the King Fahd Causeway from Saudi Arabia, although extensive security checkpoints increase the risk of discovery; on 16 March, Bahraini authorities stated that a teenager had attempted to smuggle bomb-making equipment originating in Iraq over the causeway from Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, the group's capability is likely to be considerably less than in Saudi Arabia, where there is a considerably greater proliferation of arms.

FORECAST
Bahrain represents an attractive target for the Islamic State, given its large Shia population and 'apostate' pro-Western monarchy. Increasingly stark sectarian divisions, reflected in ongoing protests and low-level IED attacks from radical elements among the Shia population are creating a fertile operating environment for the Islamic State. Although Islamic State attacks would prove highly disruptive, the group would be unable to unseat the monarchy. In the event of a serious deterioration in security, neighbouring Saudi Arabia would provide security and financial assistance to preserve the monarchy in power. However, unlike Shia militants, the Islamic State would potentially be able to carry out crude IED attacks, shootings, and kidnappings in areas in central Manama, frequented by foreigners.




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Increase in Shia IED attacks in Bahrain heightens risk of Islamic State gaining support in kingdom - IHS Jane's 360